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Suck Out Sundry

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Suck Out Sundry - Tue Dec 17, 2013, 11:00 AM
(#1)
nozyrabbit's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 23
I have recently started playing on pokerstars and I am having a really bad experience. I see a lot of setup hands and I mean a lot. I have played poker live for almost 3years now and I have been a consistent winner right from the start. I played on full tilt for last three months and I found it spooky too. It's like every time I win a hand the next or the hand after is a setup, something like AA over KK or the other guy pulling up a two outer. After regularly winning and then losing on full tilt I figured maybe I should adopt a different strategy for online play and I have been doing that here on Pokerstars through PSO, but the results are same. In my live games experience you do get setup once in a while. But here it is too frequent. I am quite sure it isn't rigged as the I understand how RNGs based on quantum motion work, but I can't figure out why does every time the guy who just got shortstacked in SnG goes all-in with almost with any two cards wins. Here are few examples of such hands,

and here's the hand just after in the same session(you can see the chip balance)

Here are two almost consecutive hands


I understand that bad beats are about to happen but I can almost see a trend. It would be really helpful if someone can help me out with the adjustments needed while switching from line to online poker.
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 11:45 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
How many hands do you see in a normal live game, per hour/day/month?

Compare that with how many you will see in an online game/s. While you will most certainly see more set-up hands online this is almost uniquely down to the fact you see more hands. The remainder being the luck element or variance.

As for the short stacks always going in with any two, and winning, well, I think we had a thread within the last few months that lamented the fact that big stacks would always call with any two and eliminate the short stacks. Both can't be true and it's a matter of perception and what you are able to observe. You only see a minuscule amount of hands that are dealt on PS so you only have a tiny fraction of the info available. The hands you posted don't actually prove a thing.

Any two cards are live against any two other cards pre-flop. Until a hand can no longer win there is always a chance of it hitting the cards it needs. A lot of the time this will come down to pot odds situations where it can be correct to call with 72o against AA.
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 02:50 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
I can't figure out why does every time the guy who just got shortstacked in SnG goes all-in with almost with any two cards wins.
You won't figure it out, because the pattern doesn't exist, except in your imagination. There are several cognitive biases that everyone suffers from to a certain extent. They stem from your perfectly rational mind trying to make sense of the randomness in the cards. And that's the problem. Human brains cannot make sense of randomness, because it's - er - random! There is no pattern; it just seems like there might be.

If you want to know more about congnitive biases that apply to poker check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
I understand that bad beats are about to happen but I can almost see a trend. It would be really helpful if someone can help me out with the adjustments needed while switching from line to online poker.
If you play more hands, you'll soon realise that variance in poker is completely crazy, and that's what makes it such an exciting and (often brutal) game.
Just about everyone that transitions from live to online has problems believing it's legit at first. But if you had the time to play thousands of hands live, you'd soon realise that bad beats happen just as often with real cards as they do on the virtual felt. They just come along more quickly online, because the hands are dealt so much more quickly.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:05 PM
(#4)
nozyrabbit's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 23
I completely understand the variance involved in poker and I am not questioning legitimacy of pokerstars. I am a postgraduate in physics and as I have said I know how Random Number Generators based on quantum motion work. But I am having lot of difficulty in adjusting from live games to online version and I need some suggestions on that. Usually I play a wide range of cards pre-flop in live games as a small investment pre flop can get you huge benefits if you make your hand. Basically what I always try is to win more on my winning hands and loose less on my loosing hands(setups and bad beats). Since I play wide range I give myself a chance to suck out on better hands than mine.

While in online games since the most advisable strategy is to play tight so I play few hands and always open with a raise. But still I am not able to turn out the profit i expect. What happens is I win a few cents over a few hundred hands and then suddenly i get a set up and I end up loosing my complete $2 buy-in(like AA over KK hand). And since I almost never play speculative hands I loose chance of giving same bad beats to the stronger pre flop hands. Also in SNGs when there are 3-4 players left and blinds are like 100-200 usually people raise all-in pre flop, and it all boils down to luck. Here again I tend to have better cards than my opponent more often than not, but still I loose most of the times.

Like i started with 8$ bankroll through PSO around 20 days back. I have earned around 100VPPs but still my net bankroll is just 15$. I reach the bubble stage of SNGs almost very time I play but then someone sucks out on me with a worse hand.

Your advice is quite helpful but I can't understand what's missing in my strategy.

Last edited by nozyrabbit; Tue Dec 17, 2013 at 05:22 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:10 PM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
You need to post some specific hand examples.

It also helps if you can us paragraphs as the wall of text above is fairly difficult to read.

Instructions on how to post hands for analysis are below:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...and-for-review
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:17 PM
(#6)
nozyrabbit's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Human brains cannot make sense of randomness, because it's - er - random! There is no pattern; it just seems like there might be.
On a side note human minds can not only makes sense of random data but can even modify it. That is what people call instinct. That is how most of the decisions in live games are based. If you have played live you would have sometimes had a feeling what the next card is going to be or at least you must have seen the video of daniel negreanu or someone doing it. That is how players like Sammy Farha and Eli Elezra win so much with so little mathematical knowledge. This actually works better when you are on drugs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_...usness_Project
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:18 PM
(#7)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I have played poker live for almost 3years now and I have been a consistent winner right from the start.



Do you have records to back up this statement?

It's human nature to see patterns, we see a man in the Moon, Faces in clouds and non random events in poker when in fact there isn't any.

Adjustments: Tighten up and play more in position, you will see far many more hands and can be selective. Poker is a game of information and the more information you have then the better your game will be. Use the notes feature and note anything you think is a bad play. Ask for help on the forums (which you've already done!) and watch some training video's. Improve online and your live game will also improve.

I can assure you the RNG is straight. I own tracking software called Holdem Manager that keeps track of things like the RNG. I've over 500,000 hands in my database and the stats match very closely to what the odds should be for a truly random RNG. Stars have auditors to back up their RNG but I've known for many years that the online game is straight.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:21 PM
(#8)
nozyrabbit's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 23
It is already in paragraphs I guess. I think you want me to put space there, I will edit it.
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:28 PM
(#9)
nozyrabbit's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
[I]

I can assure you the RNG is straight. I own tracking software called Holdem Manager that keeps track of things like the RNG. I've over 500,000 hands in my database and the stats match very closely to what the odds should be for a truly random RNG. Stars have auditors to back up their RNG but I've known for many years that the online game is straight.
Please read my posts once again, I have made it clear that I know how RNGs work(especially quantum motion based RNGs which is I think what Pokerstars uses). I have written in my first post itself that it is NOT rigged.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
I am quite sure it isn't rigged as I understand how RNGs based on quantum motion work, but I can't figure out why does every time the guy who just got shortstacked in SnG goes all-in with almost with any two cards wins.
The only record I have backing my claim is that after completing a Bachelors degree in Mechanical Engg and post graduation in Physics I am seeking career as a poker player. I would have to be nuts to give up such lucrative career just to try my luck at poker. Since I come from a country where gambling is illegal and i cannot make a legit living playing live games in shady joints I want to switch to online poker.

Last edited by nozyrabbit; Tue Dec 17, 2013 at 05:50 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:53 PM
(#10)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
Please read my posts once again, I have made it clear that I know how RNGs work(especially quantum motion based RNGs which is I think what Pokerstars uses). I have written in my first post itself that it is NOT rigged.
Your trying to justify these losses by seeing patterns in the game. Concentrate on getting your chips in ahead and you do no wrong. Poker is a short term game of luck and a long term game of skill.


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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 06:08 PM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
Your advice is quite helpful but I can't understand what's missing in my strategy.
What it basically boils down to is this: Online players are much better than live players of equivalent stakes. You might be able to beat the drunken limpers at your local casino, but anyone with half a clue can do that. Online poker players have so much more experience than their live counterparts (a typical Platinum Star plays more hands in 3 months than Doyle Brunson has played in the last 30 years) that they don't make as many mistakes as casual live players. Online games are tighter and tougher, and your mistakes are punished harder.
There's no easy way to go about it. Online poker is hard. Your edge (if any) over the field is very small, so runs of bad luck can be devastating if you're not properly bankrolled.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nozyrabbit View Post
On a side note human minds can not only makes sense of random data but can even modify it. That is what people call instinct. That is how most of the decisions in live games are based. If you have played live you would have sometimes had a feeling what the next card is going to be or at least you must have seen the video of daniel negreanu or someone doing it. That is how players like Sammy Farha and Eli Elezra win so much with so little mathematical knowledge.
I've seen Negreanu call for cards and be right. That doesn't make him psychic. He gets it wrong just as often as anyone else. Focusing on his correct calls is just confirmation bias. Simple probability means that anyone will be right a certain amount of the time if they shout "Eight of diamonds". There's only 52 cards in the deck, and with a bunch of them on the table and in players' hands, you're gonna be right about 3% of the time if you call for a particular card on the river.
Farha and Eli can't beat nosebleed stakes online, precisely because they are "feel players", that rely on rich fish like Bill Perkins to pay them off. Winning players online have not only played many hundreds of thousands of hands. They've also done a helluva alot of work away from the table, so they have the mathematical "truth" to back up their decisions. Going by feel or instinct is pretty fishy in my opinion. People chasing gutshots without the odds to do so - because they have a hunch they will hit them - is how winning players make money, after all.

If you want to beat online games, then you need to do the work to improve your game. Joining PSO is the first step towards doing that.
Putting the bad beat whines behind you is probably the second step. We've all been there, but moaning about bad beats doesn't get you anywhere. Bad beat posts are boring, if truth be told. If you want to beat the games, then STUDY!


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 02:52 AM
(#12)
Nataraj1's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 573
Online Poker <> Live Poker, so your expectation that the experience in one should equate the experience in the other is a fallacy.

As for randomness in algorithms and computers, that's a whole new debate in itself, firstly because it is an extremely difficult thing to do properly, but especially now that we know computers and routers are intercepted in-between seller and buyer to install backdoors and trojans...

In Live, there can be some very fishy things, actually.

Know where you tread.
 

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