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16nl - Low BD Flush facing shove

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16nl - Low BD Flush facing shove - Thu Dec 19, 2013, 07:43 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats:

BB - VPIP: 33, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 18

BTN - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.3, Hands: 64



Think it's all standard till the turn.

Turn is an interesting card as it gives me a flush draw. This tends to hit the preflop raisers range and is a good card to barrel as it will most likely fold out a lot of 2 s and 4 s which the BB might have donked with.

The btn (who has reggish stats) calls my turn barrel and the bb folds. I think he has a pretty weak range which won't be able to handle a 3rd barrel, so I intend on bluffing a fair few rivers if I don't hit.

Fortunately the BD flush hits and I make a substantial bet for value and he shoves...

Hero...?
 
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Thu Dec 19, 2013, 08:02 AM
(#2)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
After your bet size on the river, I don't think your ever folding.
Unless you very sure your beat.
 
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Thu Dec 19, 2013, 10:09 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Villain's shove on the river is really confusing.

I just can't believe he ever has a flush here given how he played the other streets, but then again why would he shove without a flush when you're getting 6:1 to call?

65ss is impossible, A7/A4ss is impossible. The only few flushes that make any possible sense are K7ss, K4ss or KQ/KJss. I suppose all those hands might be in his button vs CO defending range but he does fairly tight.

If he flopped a set or turned two pair, surely he would've raised this OTT unless he thought he could get more value by having you bet the river.

I think 65 makes most sense here and he thinks he can get you to call his shove with Ax or better, it's tough for him to put you on a flush.

I think you're getting too good a price to fold and there are other non-flush hands he thinks he might be value betting.
 
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Thu Dec 19, 2013, 11:36 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,

I think the whole hand is fine as played. On the river, I am going to call this shove all day long and take my chances. The reason is I will make the assumption a reggish guy at this level is ranging us to some extent. And the way we played this hand we look a ton like AK or AA. He can't be sure of course, but I can see him shoving with a 5 here thinking it's good on the river.

That, coupled with the difficulty seeing how he got past the flop with flushes. The most likely candidate hands on a 742r flop for a tag reg to peel the flop with would be gut shots like A3/A5, but the A and 5 of spades are accounted for so he can't have those. He's not floating the flop 3 ways with KQ/QJss etc I don't think. Suited connectors, IF he would even play them preflop, would need to coordinate with the board for him to call the flop, but we have the 7s and 5s so the only flop match that might peel is 6s4s, which we beat.

If he could (and maybe would) float the flop with A5s, while he can't have a flush, there are 3 other possible suits that make a straight on this river card, and also make perfect sense for his turn call with top pair+gut shot. And given what our hand looks like, he may well believe his straight is the nuts.


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