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5nl zoom nut FD semibluffing

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5nl zoom nut FD semibluffing - Fri Dec 20, 2013, 12:35 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

20/16; btn open 52; f3b 77; wtsd 33; AF turn 0.83; 546 hands
Is this the right guy and the right spot to x/r, it should look like I got it.
Am I better of just putting another bet instead of x/r?
Any merits for calling or folding?
 
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Fri Dec 20, 2013, 01:28 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Such a terrible hand to 3b preflop OOP.

Check/raising is terrible OTT. He's never folding anything he's betting so we are just donating money to him w/ only outs to a flush.
 
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Fri Dec 20, 2013, 03:44 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi Praydk!

I agree with birdayy. K3o is just too weak to 3b preflop. The villain's stats look fairly normal. Yes, he is opening a wide range from the btn, but I still want a plan b for when I get called. Note, if the villain is opening 52% of his hands from the btn, K3o is still behind this range. I needed to get to 57% on Pokerstove before K3o was included. At 5NL, I suggest never purely bluffing preflop.

Now, once the villain calls your 3b you need to be careful. He folds to 3b 77%. We can be pretty sure that he has a decent hand. You miss the flop and don't have much hope of improving on the turn. If the turn is a K you only have second pair. Moreover there are straight and flush draws possible. You will need runner, runner to make either of these. At this point you could check-fold the flop, or you can fire a second barrel of bluff if we believe the ace is a scare card for the villain. C-betting is your only chance of winning the hand. Therefore, I don't mind betting. However, once it gets called I strongly suggest cutting your lossing and check-folding the remaining streets.

As birdayy points out, it is highly unlikely that the villain will fold to your check-raise on the turn. You have 9 outs at best to a flush. By moving all in you create a situation for yourself that will lose money over time. You won't make a flush or get enough folds to make this profitable.

The critical point in this hand for me is when the villain calls your 3b pf. That is the warning signal that this hand was not a bluffing spot.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Fri Dec 20, 2013, 04:20 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Just another thing to add;

Semi-bluffing relies on fold equity. If there is no chance that villain will fold then a semi-bluff is ineffective.
 
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Fri Dec 20, 2013, 10:49 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
I'd prefer to 3-bet with something that can flop some equity, but since this guy folds to 3-bets often, then it's +EV to make the play, provided you give up when you get called and miss. You'll make money by 3-betting light against this guy even if you give up 100% of the time when called, because he folds so often. When he calls, his range is strong, and you have trash, so just check-fold the flop as a resteal gone wrong.


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