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stupid play or not?

stupid play or not? - Fri Dec 20, 2013, 09:49 AM
GayLooser's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 62
zoom no info, wut u think? i think super-donkey about my play now, especially cuz we were so deepstacked... my worst play of today...
Fri Dec 20, 2013, 02:54 PM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi GayLooser,

Preflop play is fine.

OTF I would actually be tempted to fire a bet when it's checked to you. I would expect V5 to CBet with a K and not have too many hands in his range so I think a raise here will take down the pot most of the time. However checking is also fine.

OTT V5 fires a large delayed CBet. I would expect this to be mainly with hands like AT, maybe some pocket pair, rarely a slowplayed monster like KK or . I don't think he's bluffing too often with that bet size.

I think you should just call his bet. If he's betting with a hand like AT/QT, you have all your straight outs plus some outs where you hit your pair. I think there's a reasonable expectation that you would get paid if you hit your straight.

As played you raised big with your draw. Whilst this is aggressive, your story doesn't really make much sense. If you had a K or a 2, you would've bet the flop after the original raiser had already seemingly given up on the hand. If you had a T, you'd probably just call and try to get some more value on the river. So if villain has any half-decent made hand, I think he can be pretty confident he's ahead.

When he shoves I think you know you're now behind. So it's just a question of pot odds. You have 8 outs to the straight, which are likely going to be your only outs. This means you have ~16% equity in the hand. Sometimes your A will be no good if villain has A2. So you need about 6.5:1 pot odds to profitably call.

You're actually being charged $2.29 to win a pot of $6.01, or 2.62:1. Therefore you are way short of the pot odds required to call, so this is a clear fold.

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