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25nl - Firing the final barrel

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25nl - Firing the final barrel - Sun Dec 22, 2013, 11:07 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2387281
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $25.45
BB: $42.44
UTG: $38.28
CO: $25.00
BTN: $35.10 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K 4
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.80, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.30

Flop: ($3.85) J 9 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.39, BTN calls $2.39

Turn: ($8.63) A (2 players)
Hero bets $5.78, BTN calls $5.78

River: ($20.19) 4 (2 players)
We have $14.48 behind

Should we be emptying the clip here?

Is there much of his range that can call down 3 barrels here?

Here was a guy I talked to's response on the hand;

Quote:
Don't think firing a third barrel is going to get you anywhere given he's called the scare card OTT and river is a complete blank.

He's got at least 11 combos of Ax which he's never folding (AJ, AQc, ATc) and then add to that passively played sets of JJ and 99 (presuming he gets big pairs and Ak in pre in these positions).

So you're targeting JTs, QJ, KJ and QQ if he's not getting that in pre as hands like TT should be folding turn and we have no info to believe otherwise, other than a 6 tabling reg will prob be playing fairly straightforward in a 3bet pot.

So by my poor maths that's 30 combos you're trying to get to fold OTR, if he doesn't fold those OTT which he will a decent % of the time I'd suggest. Question is, even if he folds half those combos OTT, what % do you think he's folding to a river blank?

I think it's actually closer than it looks if any of the above is correct, and we should have some bluffs here, but having the Kc doesn't really block too many combo's he could be showing up with here if we expect him to get AK in pre in these positions.

Interesting hand, but for me I don't think villain will fold river enough, especially at these stakes, having called the turn in this spot

Last edited by birdayy; Mon Dec 23, 2013 at 04:32 AM..
 
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Mon Dec 23, 2013, 05:00 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Tough spot birdday!

I think I prefer a check-raise all-in on the turn, to bet the river if it checks through. The river is probably a check-fold versus this player. Like you said, they are probably not going to be folding a lot of hands they continue with on the turn. We also aren't guaranteed to get them off QQ every time, its worth noting.

If they shove after we check, I'd be pretty tempted to call, but I think we still have to fold. I just don't think there will be enough QT/78 type hands compared to AJ and A9s.

I like the way you played it as well, for what it is worth. Betting this turn is certainly +EV and I think so was every other choice you made prior to that. So that's all good. Check-raising the turn all-in might show a higher return because you get bets out of KQ type hands and then put them in a tough spot with a ton of their range. You also realize your equity and don't face a shove yourself on the turn.

The times it checks through you can represent a weak ace that pot controlled the turn or a wider value range like QQ/KK. Against a villain like this that might not be worth anything, so you still might want to give up, but its a bluff that is trying to attack a weaker range (his turn check back range) as opposed to his turn calling range, as we are here.
 
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Mon Dec 23, 2013, 10:34 PM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Although I agree with most of what you said Gareth, I don't know if I like check shoving the turn.

It's doubtful he'll have many Ax in his range, and because of this it is likely that he'll just be checking back the turn with any hands with decent showdown value.

If he does bet (ie the A does not dissuade him), I don't believe he will fold that often when we come over the top.

I also think it makes our hand appear quite transparent as a draw, but I may be wrong about this.

In the actual hand I checked, and he checked back A2cc.
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 02:52 PM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I always thought that a turned A on a two tone board was a bad barrel card especially when he flatted the flop?

As for the turn check raise im assuming that is because if he had flopped a decent hand you would expect him to raise on this flop?

So if the turn was say a 2h you could check and if he bets he would be likely to be betting a draw/weak hands that you could check jam over the top?
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#5)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Although I agree with most of what you said Gareth, I don't know if I like check shoving the turn.

It's doubtful he'll have many Ax in his range, and because of this it is likely that he'll just be checking back the turn with any hands with decent showdown value.

If he does bet (ie the A does not dissuade him), I don't believe he will fold that often when we come over the top.

I also think it makes our hand appear quite transparent as a draw, but I may be wrong about this.

In the actual hand I checked, and he checked back A2cc.
one does not simply fold K4 sooooooted preflop.
 

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