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ICM wizards? $1.50 SNG 18 player itm 3bet jam KK

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ICM wizards? $1.50 SNG 18 player itm 3bet jam KK - Mon Dec 23, 2013, 09:50 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi guys,

One for the icm calculators. Not going to change my mind unless my desire to win was incorrect vs the player on my right?

The dynamic is we are 4 handed just itm (min cash) and the player on the button in this hand has been very loose. Reading that the other two opponents seem solid players but shorter stacked.

Is it such a disaster to challenge the chip leader for my next pay jump by a 19bb re-shove with KK? And also keep in mind I want to win this tournament.


Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Dec 23, 2013 at 09:52 PM.. Reason: min cash
 
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Mon Dec 23, 2013, 10:49 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
My ICM tool can only analyse open shoves in STTs (not 18-mans), but it's pretty clear that shoving KK is unexploitable here and very +EV. You're not exactly gonna fold every hand (like in a satellite) until the shorties bust out, are you?

In a normal STT on the bubble (3 get paid), the big stack on the button should actually be shoving ATC, figuring that you can only call with TT+ (you'd have to fold AK, believe it or not). When he minraises, his range is pretty weak, so you should be shoving about 15% of hands. KK certainly qualifies. My ICM tool doesn't analyse situations where you're shoving over an open raise, but I would presume that villain's call is too loose. I'd guess that to call off 19bb, he needs something like 88+/AJs+/AQ+. i.e. He made a mistake with AT, even if ultimately he was rewarded.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 12:23 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi Arty,

Thanks for looking into the ICM. Only one pay spot between a STT and a 18 player game. Actually this was a regular speed 10 min levels, annoying ft bubble 10 handed, then again 6-max to the bubble boy in 5th.

Strange dynamic not knowing but I was for a flat call to invite the shorter 10bb-13bb to push over and I could call them. Then my mouse finger just removed that option.

I wasn't re-shoving myself but (isolating) a potential re-shove (to me that means removing action behind = any later position or shorter stacks) and including (isolating) the looser player.

Just one of those calls A2o makes a straight 2-6 or trips so it wasn't that bad.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Dec 24, 2013 at 02:07 AM.. Reason: STT typo
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 09:04 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I don't yet own SNG Wizard because I don't play many SNGs, but here is my take on this situation.

The prize distribution is quite interesting as the pay jumps are completely flat. 4th pays 10%, 3rd - 20%, 2nd - 30% and 1st - 40%. Comparing this to a 9-man SNG (50/30/20), there is a greater need for survival and laddering up and less of an incentive to win.

Here's a basic ICM calculator you can use for some basic guidance: http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

To the specific hand/situation...

Your current ICM share of the prize pool is 25.43% while V3's is 33.15%. If you go all in against V3 and win, your equity jumps to 31.51% (an increase of 6.08%) while losing the all in gives you an equity of 10% (a decrease of 15.43%). Therefore your bubble factor is 2.58. This means that losing hurts 2.58 times more than winning. In order to calculate your proper tournament odds in a given hand, you need to divide your actual pot odds times this bubble factor.

For example, if you assess that you are a 2:1 underdog against V3, you actually need something like 7:1 pot odds in order to make the call. If you're getting 1:1 pot odds, you actually need to be something like 80% favourite to win in order to make the call.

If you work out villain's bubble factor against you in the same way, it comes out to 1.17. This is an extremely low bubble factor and essentially means that he doesn't really care too much if he goes all in against you and loses, his tournament equity doesn't drop that much.

Because you have a very high bubble factor, and villain's is very low, you should never bluff and play your good hands hard and fast.

Therefore I think shoving is exactly the right play as you don't want to have to call his shove on almost any flop.

Let's say you called and you saw the flop heads up. If villain just shoves the flop with his part of his PF raising range, say 22+ and AT+, you are 68.31% favourite in terms of equity.

However lets look at tournament odds. You would have to call 5246 to win 6846 or 1.3/1, which means normally you would have to be correct 43.4% to make this a break even call. At this precise moment, if you folded your ICM equity would be 24.93%. If you called and won your equity would jump to 31.51% and if you lost, your equity would drop to 10%, giving you a current bubble factor of 2.26. This means you would have to win 69.4% of the time in order to break even. So believe it or not, the correct play would actually be to fold!

I know this explanation is a bit long-winded, but I hope it stresses the need for being the aggressor in SNGs and final tables.
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 09:10 AM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey forrest!

I have sng wizard, and can try plugging in your hand history if you have the hand # - not sure if anything'll come out tho (still learning how to use it lol )
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 12:21 PM
(#6)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello, put it in sng wizard for you here's the result. This result is for a raise and 15% raise hand range, but I think he raises here at least 30 % of hand range. if he is good player he will raise here 100% of hand range because of enormous fold equity. I would shove too
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 06:14 PM
(#7)
m1ndmaster's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 44
Hi ForrestFive,

first of all, I'm still learning.. So this is just my opinion..

I think you could've 3bet player 3, or flat call him, trying to induce some other action from SB and BB.. I really don't mind the shove if you knew he was going to pay you.. You're far ahead of his range in that spot, he just got lucky with that river..

So regarding other options, do you think we'd fold the A, had you check raise flop, or re raised his c-bet? I really don't think so.. I think either way you'd lose a lot of chips if not all..

I don't think folding KK 4 handed is the best option unless you have some exceptional read on the player, even if that was the case, I'd never fold..

Happy holidays

Best regards,
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#8)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Mindmaster - I hope you read my post carefully because it contains a lot of points specific to SNGs and final tables in general.

Because the money jumps are so significant, this hugely alters our optimal way of playing. Because there are two stacks shorter than us, we need to be extremely confident of winning against the big stack before we commit all our chips, because winning the hand doesn't increase our equity in the tournament that much, while getting knocked out is a disaster in terms of equity.

Before we shoved, if villain told us he had AT and was going to call, we should actually fold KK as our tournament equity is not good enough to call.

Essentially V3's best play is to shove with the majority of his starting hands, maybe even as high as 100% like has already been said but I haven't done the maths on this.
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 11:25 PM
(#9)
m1ndmaster's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 44
Hi spand, Merry Christmas,

I did, I was afraid of this to be honest..
I was just trying to lay down the options 'we' had.. My English didn't help there either.
I should've expressed my self differently, I'm sorry.. Maybe it's best I refrain myself from posting here..

You know, maybe that's I can't win much, even if he'd told me, I think I'd shove or call anyway
I think I need to learn more about ICM play..

Regards,
mind
 
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Tue Dec 24, 2013, 11:39 PM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
My nephews finally went to bed (they're on West coast time) ... they've learned all these nursery rhymes, and appear to have inherited the family love of the arts ... along with our collective lack of talent - yikes!

Maybe they'll grow up to be good at poker instead, who knows

Anyways ... had the chance to tinker around with SNG Wiz ... a 'wiz' with which I am not Can't seem to get the antes to post separately from peoples' stacks, so ... someone might have to redo the numbers to double-check my observations?

But if the figures are ballpark ... something that was interesting to see was that SNG Wiz was recommending a REALLY tight range for you Forrest - KK+ ... that's even if the villain was 'very loose' (the recommended shoving range is listed below the 'Push':




If the villain was 'very tight', SNG Wiz is actually recommending a 'Fold' of everything except AA:




So your gut instincts were on the right track Forrest, about KK being a shove, but that it was close. Was interesting to find out that SNG Wiz I was recommending a fold of even QQ versus all villain types

Interestingly, SNG Wiz II was recommending a call with QQ+


PS The names of the villains are from the sample hand from SNG Wiz, not my doing haha

Have to go back and double-check, but ... it 'looked' like SNG Wizard was only recommending a 10% shoving range for the button, but wasn't paying that close attention - maybe it would be interesting to look over again tomorrow ...

Night everybody

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Dec 25, 2013 at 12:12 AM..
 
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Thu Dec 26, 2013, 08:21 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Forrest, got a spot just like yours in one of my hyper-turbos ... didn't think the villain would call

Click to show hidden text


Will have to check my spot too after I'm done playing my hyper-turbos in about 20mins
 
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Thu Dec 26, 2013, 10:12 AM
(#12)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Wow thanks guys and girls for the responses. Quite a lot goes behind these wizards to do the sums we mortals never guess.

@Sam I like your wizard as it sort of tells me what I want to believe. Though Negreanu wouldn't have made the previous loose calls Q2o, 86s sending better hands to the rail.

@m1ndmaster Don't worry please keep posting here that's how we learn. Even with ICM telling me that this is a possible fold I'm still shoving into this loose Muppet next time.

We don't all agree on everything I've even disagreed with the Lango about playing premiums multi-way.


In this ICM decision I have to step back from my prejudice on how previous hands have been played. A loose opponent is entitled to wake up with AA or some other any two card injustice that destroys my 2nd place.

Would it be different if we took these opponents, chip stacks and my KK to the final table of the Sunday Million. Plug in the big prize amounts 1st - 4th (a little more top heavy) and I just refused a deal because I can beat the loose villain and win it. Then exactly the same thing happens where that decision was now some $100K loss in real chip value.

I'd be even more grumpy than I normally am.


PS. Sam just looked at your hand. Wow 6-max hyper 2 pay spots bubble, shorty 4bb and the big stack 13bb raises 3 - don't think he's raise folding. In the moment I'm shoving KK but one for the Wizard I guess.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Thu Dec 26, 2013 at 10:50 AM.. Reason: hyper
 
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Thu Dec 26, 2013, 10:58 AM
(#13)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Though Negreanu wouldn't have made the previous loose calls Q2o, 86s sending better hands to the rail.

Oh dear


Still haven't put my own hand through the thingie - am waiting for the tilt to subside ... think mine might have been a fold, but thankfully spots like that don't come up too often ...


Oh well, guess next two hands, we ought to win on average hopefully
 
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Thu Dec 26, 2013, 03:26 PM
(#14)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Mindmaster - don't worry about saying the "wrong" thing - a lot of this ICM stuff is quite counter-intuitive at first and is difficult to understand, you have to develop a completely different way of thinking.

Sam - Thanks for running the SNG analysis, I'm glad by old-fashioned methods of pen and calculator to work things out were at least pretty accurate!

Forrest - The point of all this is NOT to say that you should fold KK, more that you should play all of your holdings aggressively and ideally just going all in in this specific situation. The payout structures of the 18-Mans are unique which is why you get these strange scenarios.

If you got to the top 4 of the Sunday Million, because the payouts are much more top heavy, your bubble factor goes way down and you can shove and call shoves with a wider range of hands.
 
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Thu Dec 26, 2013, 03:33 PM
(#15)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh hey, you know what I forgot to mention is that the program (I think? ) wouldn't let me choose 'call' as an option for KK, it only gave the options of 'push' or 'fold'? So there wasn't any chance to run that through the program, in case anybody was wondering
 

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