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fold nut made straight w/ also straight-flush gutshot draw on paired board OTT?

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fold nut made straight w/ also straight-flush gutshot draw on paired board OTT? - Fri Dec 27, 2013, 05:02 AM
(#1)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
title is a bit wrong, sry , so fold OTR?
hoped he does this just with the trips with something like K4 or 23o, ...

Last edited by NaturoSasuki; Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 05:05 AM..
 
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Fri Dec 27, 2013, 11:16 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

I think this is a pretty easy fold without any reads. Wish we started getting some reads.

This type of line is the ultimate "I slowplayed myself to no value so will try to make up for it now, it will look so bluffy". Except it doesn't look bluffy at all, because one could effectively bluff here with a bet of $1.50 instead of their whole $11 stack... it looks like someone who flopped a monster and slow played it, and are now trying to make up for that folly and regain their lost value.

Reads are helpful because it would be nice to know if this player spews this hard without monsters, which might make it closer.

But the math is relevant here regardless. We have to call 11.09 to win 12.90, so our break even point is 46.2%. Is he spew/punting his stack here almost half the time? Probably not.


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