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2nl zoom full-ring flop decision for stack in 3-bet pot {AA}

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2nl zoom full-ring flop decision for stack in 3-bet pot {AA} - Fri Dec 27, 2013, 05:48 AM
(#1)
Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31


No prior history with either villain.

Pre-flop:I'm unsure as to what range the villain would flat the original open with IP, and then flat-call my 3-bet OOP with. I assume his range is weighted away from big pairs and more towards AK, AXs, suited broadways and medium PP.

Flop: Immediate pot odds ~ 3:2, so 40% equity is needed to justify a call.
  • I'm tempted to assign an arbitrary 5% to the villain bluffing with complete air, against which we are a 90%~ favourite.
  • A set is a huge favourite against my range, and you would expect the villain to know this. So why the weird line?
  • An over-pair to the board. Given that he flat the original open we can effectively discount KK-JJ. Maybe some semi-bluff with TT/99, figuring we'll fold our QQ+,AK half the time.
  • Some sort of combo-draw like overs and flush draw, against which we are a 60% favourite.
  • Given that the Eff. stack is 150BB, I'd estimate 45% likelihood for sets, 30% for the draws and 20% for over-pairs = 45% equity overall i.e. a close call on reflection.

So the question is what things should we consider, and should we call in this spot vs an unknown?

Ibie
 
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Fri Dec 27, 2013, 05:58 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I wouldn't be happy about it but i'd be calling off here.

I doubt he'd be overbet jamming sets and two pairs, and we have decent enough equity vs draws.

Even if we has two pair or something we have decent equity.

He may also have something stupid like 99 'waiting for a safe flop' which we are crushing.
 
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Fri Dec 27, 2013, 05:58 AM
(#3)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
folding is too nitty, especially since you only have 3.14 to begin with (pi stack)
i think your postflop ranging is fine but i think you're weighting it too heavily on sets, this is a really drawy board and there are way more combos of drawy hands than of sets - things as dodgy as 87o could be calling along pre and loving that flop

also maybe raise a lil more pre (because of flatter) but thats just personal preference and 22c isnt bad
 
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Fri Dec 27, 2013, 11:31 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi Ibie,

I've seen you've done some good analysis of the play yourself already so you know a lot of the issues at play here.

I'd probably 3Bet slightly bigger preflop as you had a call of the raise and the blinds still to act, so I'd make it something like $0.28, but this is not a big deal.

I agree that villain's range is more heavily weighted towards PPs, however fishy players (especially at 2NL) also just like to call so may have a much wider range than this.

I'm not sure why you've given a 45% chance that villain has a set vs an unknown opponent. There aren't that many combos of sets possible, it's statistically more likely that he has a pair + draw or overcards with hearts or some pair that either gives him a gutter or an overpair.

I think certain villains might make this play with 66/77 in addition to the other possibilites you mentioned, particularly if he wants to try get you off AK/AQ or a small overpair.

Against a range of JJ-44, A8, K8, 98, 87, AThh+, KJhh+, QJhh, you are 70% favourite. If you tighten his range to JJ-88, 55-44, AJhh+, KQhh, you are 62% favourite, while if you remove JJ, you are 56%.

I think all the numbers are in your favour and I think you should call without being too happy about it.
 
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Fri Dec 27, 2013, 04:28 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
I snap-call vs an unknown here. There are way more combos of overpairs (JJ-99 is 18 combos) and draws then there are of sets (just 9 combos) and straights.

Notes/reads are realy helpful here. In particular, one of the most useful notes you can have is how someone plays sets. I've come across several players whose default line with a set is to check-raise all in. (That line works well at 2NL, because villains pay them off with top pair). Against those, I'm folding to the shove and feeling very good about it. If villain stacks off overpairs in similar fashion, then I'm printing money by calling.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Dec 28, 2013, 01:42 PM
(#6)
Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31
Thanks guys . I agree that there are certainly more than enough crushed over-pairs and draws in the villains range to justify calling. At the time, I didn't give the decision much thought and assumed (wrongly) that the villain wouldn't be calling a 3-bet OOP with BWs, or flatting the original open with JJ/TT too much.
 

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