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A live hand for analysis...How did my Buddy do here?

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A live hand for analysis...How did my Buddy do here? - Sun Dec 29, 2013, 01:25 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hello All!

I just got home from the Chicago Charitables Poker Games live game in Bridgeview Illinois, where I knocked the person I went with out of a SNG on the money bubble. I would like to hear all your opinions on my buddy's play.

BE HONEST!
...not funny.

Thanks!

SITUATION:

10 person $25 SNG with a voluntary $5 last standing bet.
2500 start stack, 10 min blinds.
1st = $120 (+$50 from LS bet), 2nd = $80

Blinds 400/800 with ~7 or 8 min until level up.
3 runners left.

SB (my Buddy) = 5,200 behind 400 post (5,600 total)
HIS HAND: Qc9c

BB (ME) = 11,700 behind 800 post (12,500 total)
MY HAND: ?

ACTION:

TAG BTN mucks.

My buddy limps from the SB with Qc9c.

I look down at my chips, cut out my amount, and raise, making it 1900 to go.

My buddy shoves.

As he does so, he acts in a weird, hard to describe manner that was almost EXACTLY the same as he had acted in an earlier hand. In that spot he flatted a BB min raise at the 300/600 level after he linped in. The BB was the guy who I would have considered the tightest player at the table, but was extremely short (as was my buddy). This left my buddy only 400 behind (The BB who min raised had only 500 behind, yes a very strange action pattern indeed!). The flop came 9 hi all small rainbow, and my buddy open shoved bottom pair, having called the min raise with 85s. The best I can describe his coffee house acting is it sas is he was screaming: "I know I'm weak, but I also think I am best, and you gotta call. If I'm not best, oh well!"

MY BUDDY'S "READS" of me:
I asked my buddy what he thought of my play that led him to act as he did, and he basically said -

'I know you think I am really tight and will 'always' fold to raises if my hand is weak." (This is true, and I put his call/shove range of my raise here at MAYBE 15% - 17% total. But I also know he is a player who will tend to get upset and steam-y if he thinks I am running him over, and may move it to maybe 33% total. I also think he tends to understand bubble play considerations.)

"You were being wild and getting lucky." (No comment! :-) )

"You rivered a straight to knock out that guy on my left a few hands ago (I had crippled him the hand before the K.O. with AK me vs AJ him, and he had like 3BB left in a blind on blind shove at the 300/600 level. I called with A3o in the BB)."

"I thought when you bet like you did here over my limp, my hand (Q9s) was good because if you had a big hand you would have bet very small, and only bet big on weak hands when you want me to fold. (not true, I use standard raise sizing usually, and RARELY raise blind v blind when I can take the option this shallow, unless I feel it is going "

"I limped knowing you'd try to raise me off my hand, and I was planning all along to jam in with my hand if you raised me here (note: I NEVER look at my hand until it is my action)."

"I liked Q9s because I was hitting Qs all night when I played them (he honestly said that) and not only that it was suited to give me more chance at a flush."

Rough estimate of my play, from my view point:

For the entire SNG I was probably running around a 24% - 26% VPiP, with about a 60% to 65% entered for a raise/3bet. 3bet% was maybe 5% - 6% total, and due to shallow money I never got to 4bet (any 4bet would have likely been all in anyway).

I had amp'ed up the raise to enter % to around 100% by the time we were at 3 handed, and ran probably 75% to 80% (or a bit more) from around the 200/400 level, when we got to 5 handed.By 5 handed I was probably also closer to 30% to 35% VPiP, as people tended to play a bit more snugly as well.

I had a pretty selectively aggressive big stack on my immediate left (bigger than I until we got to 4 handed), who teneded to pound on my my raises when he was in LP with well timed 3bets, to which I probably folded around 4 times throughout the game. This had caused me to lower my standard open raise sizing considerably in the earlier stages, especially when the aggro TAG was in the HJ/CO/BTN spots.

I had not yet raised at the 400/800 level (having folded to raises on all 3 hands we had played), so I had settled on no standard sizing for this level. My standard open raise sizing at the 300/600 had been approximately making it 1400 to go, unless I made a directed bet at a particular size stack.

Of the prior 3 blind v blind constests we had (all we had had thus far), I checked option twice when my buddy limped in the SB, and my Buddy folded once from the SB.

QUESTIONS FOR PSOer's:

1) What do you think of his limp/jam over my raise to 1900 here with Q9s?

2) For those who know me especially, what range do you think I am raising here given this info, and how do you think Q9s plays all-in PF versus that range? What is the BOTTOM end of this range?

3) Overall, how do you assess my buddy's fold equity versus me?

4) What do you think of his statemetns regarding my "sizing tell" (for those who know me)?

Those thoughts, plus any others you might add, would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks!!!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 05:10 PM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi JDean,

Nice to read about a live tourney hand

I think stack sizes dictate most of the play, particularly with such fast blind levels and shallow stacks.

1) I really don't this play. Q9s is a much better hand to shove with than call a shove. SB is so short that he should usually just be shoving or folding. I don't mind limp/calling or limp/shoving to trap if the BB has been aggressive and you have a monster, say JJ+ or AQ+.

2) Since you checked your option a couple of times before, I suppose you're checking back your rags and maybe your speculative suited connectors. Again because the SB is so short stacked (6.5BB), I don't like your bet size, you should either put maximum pressure on the SB by shoving or just check.

I think your raising range should include something like all pairs, broadways, all Aces, most suited Kings, K8o+, Q8s+.

3) I have no idea lol
 
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Mon Dec 30, 2013, 01:03 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hey JD!

Since I think I know who the other player is, and all 3 of us have history, here's my take and I can inject my reads into my thinking on it......

1) I agree with Andy, I don't care for the limp at all and if I did limp (which would not happen), I'm not calling nor raising. Raise it or fold and due to the stack sizes, this becomes shove or fold. I know you'll call lighter than some, so I'm jamming Q9s here all day long as I can get called by worse. If I'm willing to play the hand, I want to maximize what little fold equity that I have (plus I have a chance to get called by worse).

2) When the SB makes a very weak play (that he will do with both monsters and marginal-at-best hands), from the numerous times we've played live and online together, your range there isn't wide.. it's almost a maniac range. The key here though is that you're smart enough to realize (sometimes) that by their limp, it's lowering your pot odds if you get called, so you can have a +EV play with a VERY wide range. Definitely any pair, broadway, Ax, Kx, suited connectors and maybe even suited 2-gaps or non-suited connectors.
It's probably going to be a +EV call for the Q9s, but they WILL be an underdog to your entire range. The one thing that I don't like here is the sizing of it. Put it in or muck. Why give him a chance to call and see if he hits part of the flop. Make him put the chips in up front if you're going to play the hand.

3) With this small of a stack, he shouldn't be expecting much FE unless you have an absolute trash hand. However, if he doesn't open-shove, he has exactly ZERO FE.

4) Don't agree here. Yes, you're going to be putting him in very wide (any raise pot commits you), but if you had a bottom 20% hand, you're probably just flatting and trying to outplay him postflop if you hit a part of it.... because those hands would be the -EV ones if he open-shoved that you'd have to muck.

5) Additional info:

He wants you to think he's tight when he's not nowhere near as tight as he looks. He's perfectly capable of making a play too and if you think he might try to limp lesser hands here, then your shove range can get even wider than it would be now. I've seen the same pattern with A/rags and broadways at FR tables, let alone a 3-handed table.

I can say that in all the times we've played live, you don't look at your cards until it's your action. You're busy watching everyone else trying to pick up on their tells (not that I've ever had my eye on you and who you're watching in any of the games while you were doing it)

As played, to call his shove, you need 33% equity... which means that it's a call with 2 wet bar napkins, so the only mistake you can make after you raise is to fold.

Hope to see both of you in the live league when it starts back up again next month.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Dec 31, 2013, 07:34 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Thanks guys!

First off, I agree with you both; in retrospect I do not like my sizing choice either.

My intent of raising medium/standard rather than the full bore blast was partly from a desire to balance my range (so I could raise monsters the same way in hopes of action without it looking suspicious), and partly in a desire to avoid a weak call by a person who was prone to tilt/steam. To be honest, Kevin was pretty much a tea pot at this pot because I had sucked out on him a few hands before (although to be honest, he was making min bets on each street with only bottom pair 8 kicker!), and I'm pretty certain his ego was going to do something rash towards me no matter what I did. With that said it really was probably a mistake to get involve with 76o for any kind of raise; I was kinda/sporta hopiing he'd stay with his more passive play and flat, thereby letting me fire the flop, ANY flop, for the win...but oh well! :-)

Next, the reason I posted this was because after he lost and busted short of ITM, kevin was VERY angry. I attempted to tell him that yes he was "correct" in this exact case and got unlucky, but against the RANGE of hands I might do that same thing with, he was crushed. Therefore his overall DECISION when he said he "knew" before the flop his Q9c was good was faulty. If one makes a mistake in a hand but winds up in a great situation only to see that great spot turn to poop, I personally do not think the RESULT you found yourself in (the good spot) absolves the original mistake.

Finally...

I am not saying my choice was great. I mean I mis-read my buddy's mood and failed to do what I should have done with a hand I really would not have wanted to take a flop in a raised pot; I should have checked option or jammed. I also mis-read his skill level and ability to "read" a raise based on stack size considerations. When I got something I really did not LOVE though, but knew was a possibility, I was prepared for it and did what I had planned. If I had lost roughly half my chips, I could have still had a chance to recover...

My buddy however got something he THOUGHT might happen (because he is certain I am jsut a bully and will run over him every chance I get), and gave no thought at all to the fact that I MIGHT be raising with a hand that is ahead opf a very marginal holding like Q9s (he said he was positive he was ahead, but had no phsical tell). All he had was a "feeling"...

Feelings can be good at the table, but when your poker "skill" includes thoughts such as "I was hitting Qs all night so I had a feeling I would hit", you are relying on luck. If you rely on luck to play poker that is fine really...there is a lot of luck in the game, nd as long as you never play enough to even approach a statisically significant sampling, getting lucky might even outweigh skill. But the skill in poker, at least by my estimation, is derived by having solid REASONS for doing what you elect to do, and if you cannot back up your decisions by reasons, then you are just playing advanced Bingo.

...and to me, calling a jam with Q9c by this guy is just bingo.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 31, 2013, 11:36 PM
(#5)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,508
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Thanks guys!

First off, I agree with you both; in retrospect I do not like my sizing choice either.

My intent of raising medium/standard rather than the full bore blast was partly from a desire to balance my range (so I could raise monsters the same way in hopes of action without it looking suspicious), and partly in a desire to avoid a weak call by a person who was prone to tilt/steam. To be honest, Kevin was pretty much a tea pot at this pot because I had sucked out on him a few hands before (although to be honest, he was making min bets on each street with only bottom pair 8 kicker!), and I'm pretty certain his ego was going to do something rash towards me no matter what I did. With that said it really was probably a mistake to get involve with 76o for any kind of raise; I was kinda/sporta hopiing he'd stay with his more passive play and flat, thereby letting me fire the flop, ANY flop, for the win...but oh well! :-)

Next, the reason I posted this was because after he lost and busted short of ITM, kevin was VERY angry. I attempted to tell him that yes he was "correct" in this exact case and got unlucky, but against the RANGE of hands I might do that same thing with, he was crushed. Therefore his overall DECISION when he said he "knew" before the flop his Q9c was good was faulty. If one makes a mistake in a hand but winds up in a great situation only to see that great spot turn to poop, I personally do not think the RESULT you found yourself in (the good spot) absolves the original mistake.

Finally...

I am not saying my choice was great. I mean I mis-read my buddy's mood and failed to do what I should have done with a hand I really would not have wanted to take a flop in a raised pot; I should have checked option or jammed. I also mis-read his skill level and ability to "read" a raise based on stack size considerations. When I got something I really did not LOVE though, but knew was a possibility, I was prepared for it and did what I had planned. If I had lost roughly half my chips, I could have still had a chance to recover...

My buddy however got something he THOUGHT might happen (because he is certain I am jsut a bully and will run over him every chance I get), and gave no thought at all to the fact that I MIGHT be raising with a hand that is ahead opf a very marginal holding like Q9s (he said he was positive he was ahead, but had no phsical tell). All he had was a "feeling"...

Feelings can be good at the table, but when your poker "skill" includes thoughts such as "I was hitting Qs all night so I had a feeling I would hit", you are relying on luck. If you rely on luck to play poker that is fine really...there is a lot of luck in the game, nd as long as you never play enough to even approach a statisically significant sampling, getting lucky might even outweigh skill. But the skill in poker, at least by my estimation, is derived by having solid REASONS for doing what you elect to do, and if you cannot back up your decisions by reasons, then you are just playing advanced Bingo.

...and to me, calling a jam with Q9c by this guy is just bingo.

It's no wonder I get lost trying to follow these threads, when the information changes almost every sentence.

You said he had 5,600 total with 400 SB post. then you say he limps.....is this a limp/call or a limp/min/raise ?
If it is the call he has 4,800 behind. You make it 1,900 to go ( this is not a Jam by any stretch of the imagination )..He shoves over you... this is not calling a jam...... You called his shove.

You don't know his holding, and even if you have reads that go back years, he also has seen your play the same amount of time. You say that he was playing tight, then say he was almost tilting ( but was this an act ? he knows you as well as you know him ) a limp in SB then a shove to a raise I would say, says......1st, I want to see the flop and 2nd, I think my hand is good enough to defend the SB. Then on the shove ( after the raise ) 3rd, I see that you think you have a reasonable holding and I will fold a weak hand, 4th, I wanted to get you in the hand and was hoping you would raise my limp to put more money in the pot, I have a monster, do you think your reasonable hand will stack up against it ?

Because you know what his hand is now, statement four looks ludicrous, but if you did not know what he was holding and he has been playing tight, then I think this is a reasonable assessment.

And unless you had a monster ? you should have folded.

Let me know if you think my thoughts are total bunkum.

 
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Wed Jan 01, 2014, 12:28 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Curran View Post
It's no wonder I get lost trying to follow these threads, when the information changes almost every sentence.

You said he had 5,600 total with 400 SB post. then you say he limps.....is this a limp/call or a limp/min/raise ?
If it is the call he has 4,800 behind. You make it 1,900 to go ( this is not a Jam by any stretch of the imagination )..He shoves over you... this is not calling a jam...... You called his shove.

You don't know his holding, and even if you have reads that go back years, he also has seen your play the same amount of time. You say that he was playing tight, then say he was almost tilting ( but was this an act ? he knows you as well as you know him ) a limp in SB then a shove to a raise I would say, says......1st, I want to see the flop and 2nd, I think my hand is good enough to defend the SB. Then on the shove ( after the raise ) 3rd, I see that you think you have a reasonable holding and I will fold a weak hand, 4th, I wanted to get you in the hand and was hoping you would raise my limp to put more money in the pot, I have a monster, do you think your reasonable hand will stack up against it ?

Because you know what his hand is now, statement four looks ludicrous, but if you did not know what he was holding and he has been playing tight, then I think this is a reasonable assessment.

And unless you had a monster ? you should have folded.

Let me know if you think my thoughts are total bunkum.


Bill...

Villain was SB and limped to complete by calling 400.

I then raised to 1900 to go, with him having 4800 total behind.

He then JAMMED.

My last sentence was incorect, and my mistake. I should have written "by Jamming so light into a spot where someone having him covered was all but forced to call, he un-necessarily and improperly put himself at extreme risk of bust out in my opinion. Jamming Q9c there is just bingo". Sorry.

He WAS normally tight, but prone to tilt. I said it was my mistake in interpreting his CURRENT mindset to think he'd remain tight. I said I SHOULD have jammed rather than raise to 1900, but did not do that in a mistaken thought that Kevin wiould realize a raise to 1900 reps stronger.

As for his "strength" with his jam, I felt it was marginal at best and not on an uber tight premium trap range because his physical actions were exactly like those he used when he called a raise a few hands earlier for all but 400 of his chips, hit bottom pair, and donk shoved into the tightest player at the table.

I thought I said I knew Im never ahead if he shoves into me over my raise, but given the start stack sizes, and the size of a standard raise, AND the 2 to 1 price, unless I can suspect his range is weighted specifically toward JUST big pp, then I am going to have to call.

My feelings about the Q9c limp/shoving are that this is a MISTAKE. My raise range of him while wide, is NOT so wide that Q9s is +eV against the entirety of that range. The actual case was that 76o was the absolute Bottom end of that range and has Q9c in good shape does not change the fact Kevin risked his SNG "life" in a bubble situation on a -eV shove.

Clearer?

My final thoughts there in my "answer post" were thoughts in HINDSIGHT, where I think given the actual state of mind of the opponent I should not have played the bottom end of a raise range. I did not "know" this at the time I made my decision. All I "knew" was that I was going to try a standard size raise amount because I felt it would look STRONGER than a shove over his limp - to most it would, but I was wrong here. Im of the mind now that had I jammed over his limp, Kevin might have thought I was running him over, but probably would have mucked in face of a bust out risk.

Sometimes timelines in writing get confused when it is me doing the writing ;-)

See?


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 01, 2014 at 12:32 PM..
 

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