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T5s multi-way pot against two big stacks and a short stack in middle phase.

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T5s multi-way pot against two big stacks and a short stack in middle phase. - Sun Dec 29, 2013, 08:28 PM
(#1)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
Hello, folks!

I was playing this tournament tonight with a friend and we had a discussion about a hand which resulted in my elimination. In my opinion, I played it correctly, but he said that I should've just played it slower because of my weak kicker.

The original raiser had 33% VPIP almost all of it with raises, he'd even raised with 83o and I caught him by losing some chips(he ended up rivering a pair and won at showdown). The other guy had less than 1000 chips, so he was really short and had no choice but to go all in (which he didn't). The last one had limped from early position, which he was doing a lot with small pairs, so that's what I'd put him on.

I was a 61.5% favorite against the raiser's range, according to the odds calculator, and my intention was to isolate the short stack so I could win that pot. I know there was no to little value on this bet, cuz I would only get called by better hands, but I had around 25 BBs and I didn't want to give away free cards. Since it was quite a big pot and a pot-sized bet to protect my hand against a flush would be more than 1 third of my stack, I just shoved instead. What do you guys think of my play and reasoning?



Thanks!

Last edited by Max_Kane; Sun Dec 29, 2013 at 08:29 PM.. Reason: forgot to post the link
 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 08:52 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Fold cheese pre-flop, doubly so when you don't close the betting.

Post-flop you had no hand to protect with baby kicker.

You compounded a little mistake (less than 10% of your stack) by following with the worst decision you could have made and lost al your chips. Beware of bets that will only be called when you are beat. Calling the SB shove then folding to a re-shove is automatic here.
 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 09:04 PM
(#3)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I agree with Joe,
It's a fold pre flop. Even with a T on the flop, you have a small kicker. Even if they're suited, they aren't connectors.
 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#4)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
Hey folks, thanks for the replies.

Please don't interpret this reply as me being stubborn, it's just the way I learn. I'm trying to find the flaw in my reasoning here, and I'm thankful for you trying to point it out to me, but I still don't see it.

I absolutely disagree I should've folded pre-flop. The pot was 2375, the limper would probably join the action, which would make the pot 2825 and I needed to call only 450 chips to hop in, since I was in the BB. I'm getting 7 to 1 pot odds, meaning I need to win only 1 every 6 hands to make this play profitable. And I'm not even factoring in the implied odds of me hitting a flush, 2 pair, trips, or any other big hand, which would give me even better odds to at least see a flop in this spot. What am I missing here?

So this is my reasoning regarding the pre-flop call. I still think it was the right play, despite how it turned out, but you guys seem pretty convinced it wasn't for some reason, and I want to understand what that is, maybe you could elaborate on it (other than, you had lowish, unconnected cards, which I'm aware of)?

On the flop, I kind of knew I wasn't value betting, I was in my head semi-bluffing with top-pair in an attempt to isolate the shortstack (which would've ironically beaten me with his set of 9s), and I had a backdoor flush draw to suck out if my semi-bluff didn't work. That flop looked pretty harmless to me, maybe I'm not ranging my opponents properly, but I thought that board missed most of my opponents' hands, except AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AT, KT, QT, T9, TT, 99 and 44 (in this spot, I didn't think he had a monster hand because he was raising REALLY OFTEN with all kinds of goofy hands) or any 2-club overcards. Please keep in mind that the villain had raised pre-flop with 83o from MP3 not that long before and I caught him (I had A5s in the BB, decided to see a flop, J22 on the flop, it went check-check, another 2 on the turn, I bet 1/2 pot, he called, river came an 8, I checked, he bet small and I called, he had 83o and had rivered a full house; I had him beat till the turn and he called a bet with air basically, probably planning to bluff the river and got lucky).

Anyway, when you value bet, you expect your opponents to call, right? When you bluff, you expect your opponents to fold. In this particular spot, I was bluffing (and at the same time protecting my top pair weak kicker from a draw), in a way, because I didn't want him to call my bet, although judging by what I saw of him, he'd probably call me with worse, such as A4, A9, K9, Q9, 88, 77, 66 all of which are in his range as well, and he'd fold out AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, A7, A6, A5, A3, A2, all of which are also part of this maniac's range. He'd doubled me up calling all the way down with ATo on a flop A4662 (I had AKs), so he would most likely call with worse (as well as with better, which is what ended up happening).

So, I guess what I'm trying to do here is explain my thought process and ask you guys to look into it and point out what I'm missing. I can't just discard everything I thought and start from scratch to take a lesson, I need to see what it is that I'm not missing to reach the conclusion for myself of why this was a bad play. As of now, despite your attempts to remove the blindfold from my eyes, I'm just not seeing it.

I really do appreciate the comments, and I understand what you guys are saying, but I was the one on the table playing with that guy for over 50 hands, and there's only so much information I can convey here in this post. I had notes on him that he was a very loose player, that he floated a turn bet with nothing when there was a set on the board (so a smaller bet would probably be a bad idea and I'd be committed anyway after making it), etc... Even after writing this enormous post, there's still so much I may have left out. What I'm trying to say is that I acted mostly on my reads of the two villains, I wouldn't have tried this move if I didn't have this info on them.

I want to understand, I want to improve, but I need a more detailed analysis of my thought process to be able to see what I'm still not seeing.

Thanks!
 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 11:52 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Max_Kane!

With T5s in the BB, I get a limp, a raise and a call of the raise. I need to fold to this action preflop, as I have a very bad hand with not much potential.

I can't look at my hand just against the preflop raiser's range and need to calculate equities based on everyone that is in the hand. If 33% is their VPIP, the key number is their PFR as they raised preflop. This number will most likely be smaller, probably much smaller than 33%. There are also 2 other opps to worry about here. The shorty that doesn't shove is probably playing much tighter than they should be and the other opp that limped is still in the pot.

Even if I give the first opp all 33% of his VPIP and give 15% ranges to the others, T5s only has 18.56% equity. If the initial raiser is only raising 20%, then my equity drops to 16%.

Plus, I'm out of position postflop, which is a huge disadvantage.

With a hand that will lose over 4 in every 5 times, it's not worth the risk for a play that less than .2%EV.

Calling raises like this when OOP with marginal-at-best hands is a leak. I want to be playing my fewest number of hands from the SB than from any other position at the table. Yes, I will win the hand here 16% of the time, but it's nowhere near worth the risk with future bets and the entire board to go.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Dec 29, 2013, 11:55 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey Max,

Your math makes sense, but the most important part of your calculation is that you need the cards to do so.
Sure all you need is to win 1 in 6 hands, this means you'll lose 5 tournaments with junk and the 1 hand you'll win doesn't mean you will win the tournament.

You still had close to 20BB
It paid 18 players out of 113 and you finished in 43rd
Which means you were probably around 25th

You could of waited for a better spot
Math shouldn't dictate your play
 
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Mon Dec 30, 2013, 01:13 PM
(#7)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
I understand now. Thanks for the patience. I had the odds to call in this spot, but I wasn't the favorite to win the hand, so even though it was a +EV play, I could've waited for a higher EV play to put all my chips in. It makes sense. TBH, the only reason I had 20 BBs was because I was playing very marginal hands and representing things, I was card dead for the whole tournament. I played 1 AQo, 1 AKo, 1 JJ and 1 88 for value (and I lost the 88 hand because the guy rivered a straight after I hit my set). Besides those hands, I had 2 KQ hands in EP that I had to raise, and all the rest were bluffs. Even with these bluffs, my VPIP was 11% and my PFR was at 9%, so you can imagine how hard it was to actually get to 6000 chips without any cards. I guess that influenced my decision a little, made me bluff more often just not to get blinded out.

Anyway, I appreciate the advice, thanks!
 
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Mon Dec 30, 2013, 01:20 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Max!

When I'm card dead like that (and it will happen over and over), what I try to do is to steal more blinds when I'm IN position when I can be the first one into the pot. I'll be open-raising (or shoving if my stack is low enough in BB's) a lot lighter to try and pick up blinds from late position.

If your table image is tight and you haven't had to showdown marginal hands, it can help to pick up a few sets of blinds that can get you more time to be patient until a real hand comes along.

While 11/9's tight, but if you're not getting cards, it can be much worse. Patience and finding the right spots to steal a blind or two here and there are keys and I can only do this if I have a tight-aggressive table image.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Dec 30, 2013, 02:29 PM
(#9)
sporkT's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max_Kane View Post
... The pot was 2375, the limper would probably join the action, which would make the pot 2825 and I needed to call only 450 chips to hop in, since I was in the BB. I'm getting 7 to 1 pot odds, meaning I need to win only 1 every 6 hands to make this play profitable. And I'm not even factoring in the implied odds of me hitting a flush, 2 pair, trips, or any other big hand, which would give me even better odds to at least see a flop in this spot. What am I missing here?
Thanks for a good question and being stuborn about understanding the answers. Does the term Reverse Implied Odds apply here? When you have 7 to 1 direct pot odds, I may make sense to call 450 to win 2825 IF everybody was allin and there was to be no more betting. However with more betting to come you can be trapped to lose a lot with T5s.

"Reverse implied pot odds, or simply reverse implied odds, apply to situations where a player will win the minimum if holding the best hand but lose the maximum if not having the best hand"
 
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Wed Jan 01, 2014, 10:41 PM
(#10)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
I believe you are correct, this is a reversed implied odds situation, as proven by the result. Until I learn to press the fold button with Top Pair, I'll always get caught on these situations. Right now, losing with Top Pair is ABSOLUTELY my greatest leak in Poker (most of the time it's TPTK). In that spot, what I thought made perfect sense at the time, but now with these comments, I have to start thinking differently. This is the only way to elevate my level of play.

Thanks!
 

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