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10Nl 6-max Zoom QQ

10Nl 6-max Zoom QQ - Tue Dec 31, 2013, 09:13 AM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is playing 42/38/0 over just 26 hands.
The sample size is too small to have any conclusion.
He's Supernova which means his not a bad player I'd guess.

Should I fold the turn ? Or I am commited?
What's his range here ?

Wed Jan 01, 2014, 12:34 AM
Horanda's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 22
The stats are not as useless as the fact that he's supernova. Even over only 4 orbits, that's a lot of hands to play, and raise on. Even so, it's hard to put him on any hand PF that improves with that flop. His call on the flop would indicate a couple of overcards (not hard here). His raise on the turn could be a flush draw (Ax of diamonds) and a gutshot straight (looking for a four). It is just possible that he has an A4 (he would if I were playing the hand ), but that is unlikely. I tthink you were right to get it in on the turn and if he sucks in with an A5... ah, well.
Wed Jan 01, 2014, 11:41 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

Firstly don't assume a supernova is a good player. I played one for live training a couple years back who was mass multi-tabling and playing so exploitably ABC we just abused him like crazy. Some players achieve their points in games other than NLHE... Fixed limit, omaha, etc. If he's playing 10NL maybe he's learning NLHE. He may be a good NLHE player, but you just don't know based on the stars alone.

At any rate, I don't agree the ranging... I can think of 3 specific hands that he would play PF that improve on this flop. 88, 33, 22. It's such a dry board, he might wait til the turn to raise with these. Other possible made hands would be the other pocket pairs up to JJ, but I don't think those would take this line of c/c flop, c/r turn. There aren't really any draws that make sense either... I doubt we are getting floated out of position with 2 suited diamonds, and if he were semi-bluffing a draw with a check-raise, I wouldn't expect him to click it (min-raise), I'd expect him to probably just ship with that plan. This is a raise that wants to get called, not get folds.

I don't expect us to be winning when we get check/raised on the turn here tbh. Since he starts the hand with 50bb's stacking it in isn't terrible, he could be doing something weird sometimes, but I'm not optimistic about this spot.

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