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poker um skill/luck

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poker um skill/luck - Tue Dec 31, 2013, 03:03 PM
(#1)
Marjorie dbi's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 29
If you've got time to take all the bad beats to maybe one day be as 'good' as the pro's then good luck to you,
i've play part time on here, i've watched the training video's etc,

most make no sense in the real world of poker unless your playing in the last 500 of the wsop

it seems to me that you gotta have alot of money(in the bank) to make money on online poker,

training vids um,

the pro plays/raises late position with JJ's 77's AK, etc and the so called villain flats/re-raise etc with KQ/QJ TENS or any old rubbish in pos or not..

the pro has a think and decides to raise/flat etc

the pro wins,

in my game this doesn't happen
my AK JJ get's taken out by KQ QJ,TENS etc( they hit a str, trips etc)

it's nothing to with skill it's pure luck......
last 16 of any tourney is pure luck,
if you gets a strong hand in a good position and are lucky you hit you make money


Don't believe the hype people.......

only a few can make serious money at poker and their the ones who can afford to lose....
 
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Tue Dec 31, 2013, 04:13 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I happen to think that there is more luck involved in poker than most winning players would like to admit. That said, solid play comes out on top in the long run, whether you're playing a high roller in the EPT, playmoney, or a freeroll.
Poker is a game of small edges, but those edges can be increased by studying the game (e.g. going to training sessions). You can't expect immediate results (short-term variance can be brutal) but anyone that puts in the work can become a winner at their usual stakes.

Come back after you've played 50,000 hands and see if you still think AK and JJ loses to QJ in the long run.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 31, 2013, 04:49 PM
(#3)
stix144's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 226
Marjorie, a simple way of explaining it is this.. we all know if you flip a coin 100 times.. it will land on heads approx. 50 times, and land on tails approx. 50 times. the odds of each occurring on any given flip is 50%

but lets say you flip a coin just 5 times.. it could easily land on heads.. or tails, all 5 times.

does that mean we should therefore believe that this will be what happens every time we flip a coin?

what has actually happened in that situation, is too small a sample size has been analysed.

similar principles apply to poker hands too, and in most instances.. over time, we have never really been any more unlucky or lucky than we should have been with any particular hand

Last edited by stix144; Tue Dec 31, 2013 at 04:55 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 06:01 PM
(#4)
Vernon1155's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 6
Maybe it doesn't but for atournament player this seems to be the case for most of the tournaments he plays in. Who cares about your stats if every 8 out of 10 tournaments I get out loosing to weaker hands?



Playing cash games...it took me 3 days to take my bankroll from $2 to $15 and 2 pocket A's hands to get back where I start.

7 out of 10 times the bigger stack wins the hand in the tournaments here no matter what they hold (50% underdog).
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 06:59 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
3-bet shove preflop. By betting smaller, the opp got the right odds to be in the hand.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 02:52 PM
(#6)
Marjorie dbi's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 29
nice idea if your playing against players who understand pot odds etc,
but most will shove any old crap and take you out,
the point i'm trying to make is,

training videos are ok if your playing against players who play poker within the so called rules...etc

if a pro is doing a training vid,
first of all everyone on the table knows there a pro on there table
so will adjust there playing style.

i'm trying not to moan but playing live,
even in a pub/local tournament you don't get donked so much as online.

so you make a cb/raise etc bet to make there odds poor means nothin to them.....
you get donked



fun online unless you can take the hits..
 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 03:36 PM
(#7)
slettuce's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 221
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marjorie dbi View Post
fun online unless you can take the hits..
You summed it up.

If you can't take the hits, don't play the game.

SL
 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 03:57 PM
(#8)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I happen to think that there is more luck involved in poker than most winning players would like to admit. That said, solid play comes out on top in the long run, whether you're playing a high roller in the EPT, playmoney, or a freeroll.
Poker is a game of small edges, but those edges can be increased by studying the game (e.g. going to training sessions). You can't expect immediate results (short-term variance can be brutal) but anyone that puts in the work can become a winner at their usual stakes.

Come back after you've played 50,000 hands and see if you still think AK and JJ loses to QJ in the long run.
I disagree to a certain extent. There may be a lot of luck in poker but there's also a skill which far outweighs the luck over the long term. Site's charge a hefty rake especially at micro stakes. In STTs, 20% is the norm now on most sites (which is a benefit of playing on Stars at 13%) and it's still easy pickings for some. Just look at the sharkscope leaderboards and you can sse there are some players that can make it pay at every stake.

If it were mostly luck then nobody would win, the rake is hard enough to beat. The skill is over the long term (hands played, not time) and those that work hardest in their game profit most.

"The more I know, the luckier I get"


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 04:00 PM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marjorie dbi View Post
nice idea if your playing against players who understand pot odds etc,
but most will shove any old crap and take you out,
the point i'm trying to make is,

training videos are ok if your playing against players who play poker within the so called rules...etc

if a pro is doing a training vid,
first of all everyone on the table knows there a pro on there table
so will adjust there playing style.

i'm trying not to moan but playing live,
even in a pub/local tournament you don't get donked so much as online.

so you make a cb/raise etc bet to make there odds poor means nothin to them.....
you get donked



fun online unless you can take the hits..
The secret is not over one hand or one game but over many hands and many games. For every bad beat you receive it's +EV on your part. Keep making those +EV decisions and you will win over the long term.


Bracelet Winner
 

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