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25nl - Super nuts facing aggression

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25nl - Super nuts facing aggression - Wed Jan 01, 2014, 06:35 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats;

Villain 1: Player1 ( $32.99 USD ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 26, 3B: 20, AF: 8.5, Hands: 35

Villain 4: Player4 ( $25.00 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 1.5, Hands: 58




I'm really not sure if I should be getting the money in OTF when ranges are wider or risking seeing a turn and risk the action slowing down.

I think backraising here looks way too strong vs a thinking player (ie an overpair is a snap fold for anybody decent in Villain_1's position), so I think I should be calling down instead?

I called pre due to stacks being a little deeper and villain being fairly tight raising from MP. I'm also not that confident 3b/5b shoving so if we 3b we'd technically be turning TT into a bluff which I think isn't a great option.
 
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Wed Jan 01, 2014, 08:00 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I don't see too many turn cards that will slow the action down (assuming V1 folded). If anything if an A comes and V4 has Ax, it might even speed the action up . If he's got an overpair and another low card comes, then I don't think he'll stop betting OTT.

It's your lucky day when V1 raises and gets a call! I think you should just raise, despite how incredibly strong this looks. I think V1's range is likely polarised here between sets and (semi) bluffs. I suppose he might also play JJ like this.

If you just call - you may not get any action OTT unless you lead out, which also looks superstrong. If V4 and you check, V1 is only going to bet with his sets, he'll check back JJ and draws.

Therefore if you raise the flop, you're still going to get action from V1's sets and maybe V4 might even feel priced in with his AA-QQ. I'm not really sure what the best sizing is though, it's difficult to bet an amount that can set up a less than pot-sized turn shove, but I think this might not matter anyway. I'd bet $11 and hope V1 comes over the top with 66.
 
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Wed Jan 01, 2014, 03:50 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Pre-flop is fine and I think calling flop is ideal, because this board is pretty dry. On a wetter board, raising to get heads up against a set/overpair would be better, but here you're gonna stack all sets on the turn and don't have much of a sweat on the turn. The only concerning turn cards would be 9s and 8s, but if you get all in vs a straight, you'll still have outs.
The aggro player in the SB is presumably going to barrel the turn after check-raising the flop. In position, you can value-shove over his turn bet, expecting him to snap with worse sets and some one pair hands that are pot-committed.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed Jan 01, 2014 at 03:52 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 04:10 AM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I would be pretty surprised if calling and raising had a big difference in EV here. I think both are reasonable, but prefer calling for some of the reasons stated. We don't fear any turn in terms of not be willing to put the rest of our money in, we only fear our action being killed. We will be drawn out on by JJ-AA some amount of the time we just call and therefore will put the rest of the money in really badly. By raising now we ensure we get all the money in we can with 95% equity. And I don't really think we're going to loose too much action if we pop it up a little bit, ie not going all-in.

Either way I would choose call. We have position and the nuts. We can keep everyone's ranges the widest even though we already suspect both players are wiling to stack off.
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 05:02 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thanks guys.

I ended up raising to $12 and we ended up getting the money in 3 way.

Like you said Gareth it probably won't make a huge difference if we call or raise but in retrospect I prefer calling.
 

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