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25nl - EV of a Backshove

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25nl - EV of a Backshove - Wed Jan 01, 2014, 09:08 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats;

Player1 ( $26.22 USD ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 40, 3B: 38, AF: 3.0, Hands: 58

Player5 ( $25.32 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 23



Reads;

The squeezer has been very active for the small sample. 3betting a tonne (as you can see from the stats) especially IP.

We have a few options vs the squeeze;
  • We can flat OOP which will be awkward and hard to play post flop vs an aggressive player.
  • We can 4b to an amount such as $7.50, which I believe would be the worst option because calling off a 5b shove (if he does) with TT is a lot worse than shoving w/ fold equity.
  • We fold and let him take the dead money.

For this example we will assume we are jamming.

I assume that villain will call off with JJ+, AQs+ and AQ+. The equilab calc for this gives;


       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     40.11%  39.91%   0.20% { TT }
BU     59.89%  59.69%   0.20% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }


We're risking $24.25 with our shove.

When our opponent folds we win $4.10 ($0.75 + $3.00 + $0.25+$0.10)

When our opponent calls, we lose $4.50 (risking $24.25 for an equity share of 40.11% in a pot of $51.10 [$20.50])

Breakeven formula is $0 = 4.10(X) + (1-X)(-4.50)

X = 52.3%

Villain has to fold 52.3% of the time for our shove to be breakeven.

So do we get >55% (gotta account for rake) of folds vs a 100bb shove to make jamming profitable?

Last edited by birdayy; Wed Jan 01, 2014 at 09:15 AM..
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 05:12 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hi

If we think he really is squeezing as wide as we do I think this is a slam dunk four-bet/call to 6.50$.

If you look at the equities of the 40%/60% what's missing? All those hands you crush that he squeezes and then folds to a shove. So why force them to fold? Why not simply four-bet a normal size for value and give them a chance to continue in the pot.

If shoving is profitable then four-bet/calling must be more profitable in this spot, if you assume that you are called by all better when you shove and that villain's initial range includes hands you crush that fold when you shove.

Make sense?
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 08:18 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Well when you put it that way...

Yeah makes sense lol
 

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