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should I always call strong bets with my draws?

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should I always call strong bets with my draws? - Thu Jan 02, 2014, 07:21 AM
(#1)
pekmansick's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 95
I don't use any softer so these villains are unknown for me... All I had is that they are reasonably tight.





so this hands went well... in one where I hit my flush I think I missed to value bet, I was trying to let him bet in order to raise but he was smart enough to check behind.

When should we give up our draws?
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 08:15 AM
(#2)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Interesting hands...

Top hand. I think you are running kinda thin on the turn, maybe have just enough outs to call the turn if you think A's are outs too. Taken implied odds into account, I think your call is correct. But when you actually hit you draw be sure to get value from it (so bet !) to pay for all the times you don't get there.

I'm not sure, but I think I saw a coaching-video that shows you to bet your flushdraws on the flop (and fold to a raise)

Bottom hand. Odds are way better to call the turn also b/c you are in position. Checkin behind on the river is, imo, a mistake. You draw got there and you do nothing. If you bet and he shoves, you have a difficult decision (I think "fold") but again I would bet for value for sure.

To answer your question: give up your draws if potodds are (much) smaller than your odds to win.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Thu Jan 02, 2014 at 08:20 AM..
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 01:02 PM
(#3)
powerdegre's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 563
BronzeStar
Note: Percentages off the top of my head, they could be maybe 1% above or below, too lazy to check the exact numbers now.


1st hand I would have folded on the turn, he's betting big and, while you have the odds to call the flop with flush draw around 35%, even with the gutshot which improves your chances you are down to 24%, whereas you are paying another third of the pot. To call there you need to rely on implied odds and guarantee yourself that you will get paid more on the river, which means on the river you need to earn at least a dollar just to make it even. If you really want to call you need to raise to get paid.


2nd hand, you're fine on the flop, you're paying little with the 35% of a nuts draw. The turn improves your chances with flush draw and OESD, should be about 30%, and you're paying less. Again, why not raising? You're in position, he's already checked so he is not putting money in the pot, you have completed your straight, I would definitely place a small bet to tempt him, if he folds you've won all the same and he doesn't know your cards, if he calls you're value bet has paid.
There you are likely to get called a small bet by someone with AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ, two pairs or sometimes even Q and J with worse kickers.


Just my 2c, trying myself at some evaluation ^_^
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#4)
pekmansick's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 95
I think both of you guys have a point...
in first hand if it wasn't a 10 on the turn I would def fold... and then again it was a really bad not to bet on river when my flush hits... I was pretty sure he would bet cause he showed me strength on both flop and turn.
in second I was afraid if he is going to check raise me think that I would def have to fold then...
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 03:33 AM
(#5)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Still waiting for the analyses of these hands...
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 04:58 AM
(#6)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
The first hand is quite interesting.

On the turn you're facing such a large bet even though you've picked up a few more outs. The problem is that you're definitely not getting the pot odds so you have to be confident of getting the implied odds.

Assuming any heart or a Q are your only outs, that gives you 12 outs with 46 cards in the deck, giving you 26% equity. That means you have to be getting better than 3 to 1 implied odds to make the call profitable. In this case that means that you have to expect to win at least a further $1 OTR when you hit. This is villain dependent, do you think he'll ever pay you off when you hit a heart? I think if villain has a strong holding he'll pay you off with a non-heart Q almost always as your hand is very disguised.

In order to realise your implied odds equity though I think you have to lead the river as villain is almost never going to bet there. You can value bet somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 pot and hope for a crying call or even a tilt shove if you're lucky
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 05:01 AM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
On the second hand I think it's a much clearer case of calling down two streets as you're getting such a good price on both occasions.

I think not value betting the river on the second hand is a significant mistake. You are only losing to AK and K9, both of which would have value bet the river themselves.
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 07:23 AM
(#8)
pekmansick's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 95
I figured I missed river bet in first hand... I thought If I bet he will put me on flush really expected him to bet the river he flopped a set of 6

in second I was afraid of trapping didn't thought my hand is strong enough with bottom straight ...

ok ... so now I got some ideas how to play these hands , pot odds , implied odds, percentages... how can I take all that in account with limited time at tables? any advice how to practice those things to become faster?


thnx a lot guys

Last edited by pekmansick; Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 07:34 AM.. Reason: forgot to add
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 09:26 AM
(#9)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by pekmansick View Post
ok ... so now I got some ideas how to play these hands , pot odds , implied odds, percentages... how can I take all that in account with limited time at tables? any advice how to practice those things to become faster?
thnx a lot guys
There are some guidelines to calculate things quickly:
on flop: number of outs times 4 is the chance you hit your hand IF you see both turn and river
on flop: number of outs times 2 is the chance you hit your hand on the turn
on turn: number of outs times 2 is the chance you hit your hand on the river

potodds: The money you have to put in the pot divided by the size of the pot.

If the % of hitting your hand is bigger than the potodds you are correct to call.

implied odds: simply said is the amount you MIGHT be able to win if you hit your hand and things go crazy. Look at the stacks left on you and your villian. If there is much behind, the implied odds are big. e.g. the pot is $3 and your villain has 50 cents behind. Implied odds are very low.
Implied odds start to get interesting if you play deep like 200-300BB. Otherwise they are secundaire to potodds. They just "help" to set your mind and can push you over the edge if you're not getting quite the odds you need but close.

There is also a rule of thumb of how much potodds you give your villain by betting %of the pot.
If you bet 100% of the pot, You give your villain 50% potodds, should be enough for making him fold most draws.
If you bet 70% of the pot, You give your villain 40% potodds, making it for most draws tricky to continue
If you bet 50% of the pot, You give your villain 33% potodds, give you villian enough odds to call most draws.


This is all a very SIMPLIFIED summary of the whole "math behind poker".

Study your hands afterwards, do calculations and you will get the general idea to quicky make an educated guess while playing.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Fri Jan 03, 2014 at 09:31 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 09:42 AM
(#10)
pekmansick's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 95
this is very helpful... thanks a lot
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 11:34 AM
(#11)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Great post by Ray - outlining a lot of the very useful basics.

You can only gain good intuition for when you should call/fold by playing many hands and STUDY!!

It's important to go back through some hand histories where you weren't sure whether a call was mathematically correct or not. Do the maths and see if your call was correct or not. Play around with with some similar hypothetical situations.

This will help your understanding of odds and allow you to make better decisions while you're playing.
 

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