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NL2$ 6-max 5s7s thin value - bad bluff

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NL2$ 6-max 5s7s thin value - bad bluff - Thu Jan 02, 2014, 08:59 AM
(#1)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 560
villain_1 VP:11 PR:11 AFq:29 AF:1.00 (89)
villain_3 VP:57 PR:18 AFq:60 AF:2.57 saw turn:52% saw river 82%, went to showdown 90% from river, WTSD 35% (51)



I am interested in the river action here.
Once villain_1 is out of the pot, I am facing a loose fairly agressive opponent
He maked a small bet on turn and again on the river.

As he is opening very broad, he could have well connected with the board but than again, he could also be playing any 2 overs, a small pocket pair or absolute air.
As the bet was very small, I think he is rather weak and I decide that I might be better some of the times. Therefore I decide to put in a rather big reraise, mainly as a bluff

My questions here
1. In retrospective, the bluff is most likely incorrect as when looking at the statistics, opponent is very sticky past the turn
2. Would this be considered a thin value bet. If I understand corerctly a thin value bet is a bet for value when you have slight positive win expectation. Is that correct
3. As my intention was to let him fold his hand, would I have achieved so by betting even more or is shoving an acceptable alternative here ? Or should I have made the betsize smaller ?
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 10:00 AM
(#2)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
1) I like the bluff (more a semi-bluff..). seeing his stats, you shouldn't bluff this guy.
In that respect, you didn't bluff him, you valuebetted with the best hand
2) dunno know
3) with those stats, you are never get him to fold... you raised him potsize on the river and still he called with totally nothing.

These are the kind of guys you want at your table
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 10:55 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Just take the pot odds and call river. Rest of hand is fine.
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 04:14 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Interesting hand betsizer.

I like your play up until the river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by betsizer View Post
As the bet was very small, I think he is rather weak and I decide that I might be better some of the times. Therefore I decide to put in a rather big reraise, mainly as a bluff
When you make a bet or a raise, you should usually be doing it for one of two reasons

For Value - Where you are trying to get your opponent to call with a worse hand than yours

As a Bluff - You want your opponent to fold a better hand.

Your reasoning mixes up the two reasons that you want to raise.

Because your opponent has bet so small, you are only required to call $0.08 to win a pot of $0.40, giving you 5:1 pot odds which means you only have to be correct in calling once out of every 6 calls in order to break even.

The problem with betting as a bluff is that I doubt that this villain type is going to fold Jx ever and he's probably not going to fold 9x too often either. Generally you should rarely be bluffing at 2NL, just play your hands for value.

You only have third pair, so betting for value is very unlikely to be unsuccessful as it is very unlikely that villain will call with worse.

Of course you should make a note that villain did call with worse and make sure to relentlessly value bet him and never bluff against him!
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 08:15 PM
(#5)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 560
yeah, I'm learning not to bluff or thinking a lot of them are bluffing - costly mistake
I find your pointers really good - thank you
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 06:57 AM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by betsizer View Post
saw turn:52% saw river 82%
Never noticed those stats before - have added them to my HUD to give them a try
 

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