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EP 66 with a flopped OESD vs Villain flop shove

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EP 66 with a flopped OESD vs Villain flop shove - Thu Jan 02, 2014, 04:34 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I've run the numbers against some potential hands on this hand and, I think/thought, I had a lot of equity.

Against A2, I am not dead, actually in worse shape against 77. Drawing only to a tie against 76. Against his overall range I felt I had a good chance of being in decent shape.

Villain is playing 33/11 over a small sample. His postflop stats are fairly insignificant given I only have 18 hands on him. He has shown he is capable of aggression though.

When villain shoved flop, should I have folded? Or am I good to get it in with just an OESD. I felt that there would have been more value based line taken if he actually had the relative nuts.

I get the feeling though that I should have folded here, if I am behind, I don't have the odds to call profitably.

 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 06:44 PM
(#2)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
I felt that there would have been more value based line taken if he actually had the relative nuts.
If we'd be in villains shoes, maybe that overbet on the flop is worth consideration? Looks so bluffy that anyone having a playable hand might take the chance, instead of being more suspicious when facing raise on the flop and bet on the turn and river(If the action even goes that far).



Don't call this. Give credit for a villain.
 
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Thu Jan 02, 2014, 07:02 PM
(#3)
Danutz75's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 273
That over-bet just stinks of AK/AQ, he hasn't got the nutz, that's for sure.

I think it is safe to say TT-AA are likely raising pre. He could easily do this with 22/65s/43s/54s....a2 also but that would be a really weak call pre. Think he could also do this with 88/99.....but then if I call and he has got that or indeed anything 88-AA then I am still 40%....only hand I REALLY don't want to see, as you said, is 77 then I am down to 25%



Think I call this....then fist pump when he flips over AK/AQ/KQ

edit: if he comes from Ukraine or Russia this would be the fastest snap call in history

Last edited by Danutz75; Thu Jan 02, 2014 at 07:32 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 12:07 AM
(#4)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
This looks really close. Against a strong range you may only have as little as 35-40% equity which should make it a fold as there isn't enough deadmoney in the pot. As soon as you factor in some random shoves with Ax type hands you may get the right price to call. Either way I don't think folding is a mistake in this spot w/o reads (nor is calling^^).


Live Trainer



 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 02:17 AM
(#5)
kalahwang's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 135
I'd lean towards a fold on this hand.

On a drawy board, his shove could indicate
- he has a bit of a showdown hand/monster he wants to protect and not be outdrawn. e.g. two pairs, set, mid overpair
- or possibly a strong draw like yourself

Strong broadways and pairs would likely 3bet pf

You haven't invested too much in the hand. Just fold and wait for a better spot.
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 04:47 AM
(#6)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I also think this is really close.

I ran the numbers of 66 vs random overcards and you're 80% favourite against these holdings. However you're a significant dog vs his value range. e.g. against a range of 33-TT, you are only 35%

The odds you're getting aren't great -1.12 to 1, meaning you have to have 47% equity to break even.

I just don't think villain is going to show up with random overcards often enough to make this call profitable in the long run, but I don't think either calling or folding can be described as a mistake.

Like GodlikeRoy stated in the Omaha thread, whether you played this spot rightly or wrongly isn't going to change your bottom line at all, it's so close.
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 05:42 AM
(#7)
Danutz75's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 273
Yes it is tight but what swings it for me is the info gained if we call, if they are doing this with AK/AQ/other broadways then being able to note and tag them and hunt them down gives the call the extra edge.
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 12:45 PM
(#8)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Thanks everyone for your replies.

It is good to hear that this wasn't as bad a call as I was thinking last night. It clearly was quite close with everyone either unsure, folding or calling.

The good news is that I won the hand, and obviously didn't need to hit the straight, and what the villain showed up with was definitely worth a note being made and I subsequently did so.



I think next time I am in this situation I will have a bit more of an idea what to do. I knew when I made the call that I likely had a good amount of equity but, having not really done the numbers on this situation before, I knew nowhere near enough to be confident in how much I had and how much I needed.

So thanks again everyone, particularly Felix and Andy as analyzers, for putting my mind a little more at rest on this one.
 
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Fri Jan 03, 2014, 01:21 PM
(#9)
Danutz75's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 273
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