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50NL FR : HU with JJ on BB vs UTG open : Case to check River?

50NL FR : HU with JJ on BB vs UTG open : Case to check River? - Sat Jan 04, 2014, 01:54 AM
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505

Villain stats:
131 hand sample
Fold to 3B, 100%
0.0 4bet range
100% flopcbet srp (4)

Villain, as far as I have seen until this hand, has been solid. HU to the flop, opted to call villain's raise. With 2 broadways on a 2 tone flop, there's no way I'm slow playing midset. Now, when he calls my over pot XR on the flop, narrows his range right down to KK+, possible nut flush Ax (AhAk/AhQh) holdings. AJ/KJ unlikely with the case J out.

If he has KK, so be it, and with the flop so wet, I could see him reraising all in on the flop (even with 77), as also in the case with any nut flush holdings. The fact he just calls, leads me to believe he doesn't have these.

Turn is a brick, and I bet 75% here essentially to set up a near pot size jam. I would expect non-hearts AJ>AK>AQ to fold out.

So when villain calls my turn bet, and river is non heart T, I jam the River. Needless to say, his actual holding was the last 2 cards I expected to see.

I don't see villain checking to showdown due to pot, actions on previous streets, and perceived holdings. And although my plan was as executed, Is there a case for me to check back here?

If there is a case to check, it would be to check/fold, not check call IMO.

Thanks in advance....

Last edited by Marc Rae; Sat Jan 04, 2014 at 01:58 AM..
Sat Jan 04, 2014, 02:36 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Well played. Just a cooler.
Sat Jan 04, 2014, 05:20 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Marc,

Good thought process!

Given that we did not 3bet preflop (which I think is very reasonable vs a tight UTG open with JJ) we leave their range at its widest so I'm thinking {AA-22, AK-AJ, KQs, KJs, QJs}

When we x/r, which I like, and they call I narrow their range to AA/KK, 77, AK, AhQx, AhQh, KQs, KJs. The 5s is essentially a blank and the river only improves 4 combos from 31 combos of their flop x/r continuation range. So I think, x/f river is going to be a mistake when we actually have 77% equity by the river against {AA,KK,77,AK,AQ,KQs,KJs}
Sat Jan 04, 2014, 04:54 PM
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks birday, GeoVarta

I guess for those times that a villain is continuing to the river with those non improved combos, it's a no-brainer.

Just with the holding of 98c, made me think if there was anything else I could have added (thought about) when I played the hand.


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