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NL2$ 6-max is the fold on the river correct ?

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NL2$ 6-max is the fold on the river correct ? - Sat Jan 04, 2014, 11:23 AM
(#1)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 562
villain_1 VP:40 PR:20 AFq:20 AF:1 (only 15 hands)



I am a bit struggling with my game having good sessions and than losing all in one key hand. When looking at my history, I see that over the last 7500 hands or so, I made a loss that when reviewing can be directed towards 50 or so hands where I made a call of a shove that was incorrect. Therefore I'm trying to be a bit more cautious about those hands. However in this one I really wonder ...

My thinking, when he donk bets on the flop, I suspect he has either
1. a set
2. a straight draw (AQ,QT,Q9,T9)
3. a flush draw with any 2 diamonds
4. a weak hand such as AJ, JT
5. total air

Therefore I decide to reraise and he flat calls
Therefore I am more inclined towards options 2-5

He then checks into the turn, so I give him even less credit for a strong hand (agree, he could be trapping)
again he flats

Then the river card arrives.
This is a tough card as it would complete a straight, two pair etc.
The villain jams and I need to decide: missed flush draw or monster.
I fold
However when looking into poker tracker player, I see that I would have had 87% to win the hand and I get 2:26 to 1. So I should only win this hand about 30% of the time, right ?

Combination of the numbers would indicate it is an easy call but it is by following this line, I have been paying off a lot of winning hands.

Is there something wrong in the thought process. Any advice on how to deal with jams on the river (or before)

As always I will appreciate your info

I noticed that the player does something strange with the initial bets. I opened for 3.5 blinds (so 7 cents). Thus the pot before flop was 15, afterwards it seems to pick up correctly

Last edited by betsizer; Sat Jan 04, 2014 at 11:26 AM.. Reason: notice something wrong with the player
 
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Sun Jan 05, 2014, 09:42 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi betsizer

Without reads, this looks like a very strong line imo.

Only set that would lead the flop is 33; ofcourse JJ could be in their range too but I think it's more likely that we face a 3bet with that holding. So yes sets could be in his range and maybe on the rare occasion they slow play Aces too.
Given the flop is a bit wet, we can give them some credit for fast playing a strong hand like two pair KJ, sets 33.
They can also donk bet with what you said. Draws, gutshots + over, weak one pair, etc. But the key point is that they continue to our raise which makes me think that weak one pair hands and air (if they do bet with that) will fold. So I will discount almost all Jx combos(except the ones that have FDs to go with their mid pair) and keep Kx type hands, 2pair+, and draws in their range. So hands like {AA, JJ (30% of the time), 33, AQ, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QdJd, JdTd}
Against that entire range OTR we are almost even money, but if we remove their busted draws from their range and hands that would just check with some showdown value like KQ, AdJd, etc. Then we are always beat it seems and because there are fewer FD hands than made hands then even when we do keep their busted FDs that would shove all in as a bluff (which I doubt they would take that line with enough of the time) then we only have like 10% equity. So I think folding to the river shove is fine. Becareful not to over commit with TPTK hands on scary boards facing aggression without specific reads on your opponents.
 
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Sun Jan 05, 2014, 11:18 AM
(#3)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 562
Thank you for this in depth analysis. Very helpful
 

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