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Deep 5NL, set A. How to get value

Deep 5NL, set A. How to get value - Sat Jan 04, 2014, 06:40 PM
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328

Villain 230BB deep, vpip 21% / pfr 14% / 3bet 3% (83 handsample)
Hero : 160BB deep.

Hero UTG () raises 3BB
Villain : calls from BB

Villain checks
Hero bets 65% pot
villain raises 3.5x hero's bet
Hero 3bets 2.6x villains raise. Ready to snapcall a 5bet shove.
Villain just calls.

villain checks
I bet quite large, 85% pot mainly because I want him to fold his flushdraws. I set his range very thin, mainly good flushdraws like QK, KJ, 10K plus sets 44, 1010 and perhaps AK. Both sets will give me action. All other hands will prob fold, or he makes an error calling this.

Is my ranging oke? Should I include KK, QQ ?
Should I bet smaller to keep the flushdraws in?

Last edited by rkleefstra; Sat Jan 04, 2014 at 06:44 PM..
Sun Jan 05, 2014, 10:38 AM
behappy621's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 181
Your ranging is fine,

I think your reasoning is slightly off,

you say you want him folding his flush draws on the turn, you have top set.

Those are the hands you want him to have if you are to get maximum value from such a hand.

Make your price large so he is making the mistake of calling your cb i.e. not giving him 5or4-1 pot odds for his draw (which are the correct odds if ever you are drawing). bet like 65%/70%

if he is super loose and a calling station, bet bigger.

Just bet bet bet. and smile

If he gets there on the river, kudos, and i bet you he cannot keep doing that and be a profitable player, whereas your strategy would be correct.
Sun Jan 05, 2014, 01:54 PM
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Thanks behappy,

I now see, I made an error in estimating his % of hitting his draws, even his best draws (KQ, KJ) only has 23% on the turn. I thought is was about 35% (that would be on the flop, stupid me)

So my bet was indeed way too big.
Sun Jan 05, 2014, 09:25 PM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi Ray,

Your villain seems pretty solid, fairly tight but not too tight.

It's always tough to get paid with top set, but I like your play preflop and on the flop, I think there's value to be extracted from draws/lower sets. If he was check/raise bluffing, he's going to fold no matter how you size your 3Bet.

On the turn you have to assess what hands you are trying to target value on. AK/AQ is possible but unlikely as three As are already out. Therefore I think you're looking to target draws/lower sets. I don't think it really matters what action you take if he has a lower set, all the money is going in anyways. In fact I think all the money would have gone in on the flop if it was set over set.

Therefore you're trying to target his draws, probably a flush draw, maybe a combo straight/flush draw. Like behappy said, you want to keep his flush draws in the hand but make sure that he's paying an incorrect price to call down Because of this I think you have to bet reasonably big as this may be your last street of value. However you want to make it cheap enough that he will still incorrectly call.

Let's assume villain has KJcc, so a Q or a flush beats you, giving him 22.7% equity. This means that his implied odds on calling a turn bet should be greater than 22.7%. The implied odds in this case are easy to calculate assuming you are never folding, so the implied odds involve your entire stack + the pot.

Therefore you need to give your opponent worse than 22.7% (or 3.40 to 1) implied odds to call. Doing the maths, this means that you should not bet smaller than $2.88, otherwise you are giving your opponent the correct implied odds to break even. If he's on just a flush draw (say K9cc), then he only has 15.9% equity which means that a calling a bet of $1.85 would be a break even call.

Therefore your bet is probably a fraction too big, but I don't think it's a huge error. Of course if you're planning to fold to a shove on a club river, then your bet size should be lower as only pot odds will be at play, not implied odds.

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