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All-in with AK preflop

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All-in with AK preflop - Mon Jan 06, 2014, 07:24 AM
(#1)
DanCarrero's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
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Two players went all-in preflop. I had AK unsuited and went all-in too. Turns out the others had pockets pairs (66 and 99). I lost.

Anything wrong with the way I played?


Last edited by DanCarrero; Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 07:26 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 08:02 AM
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bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I guess it is read dependent to a certain extent but against that action, at this stage of the tournament, I am folding. We are flipping against at least one, most of the time, and could be crushed though that would just be unlucky.

We have 30bb and time on our hands. There will be better spots in all likelyhood.

I'm not a big tournament player though.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 09:32 AM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Why get involved if this isn't a hyper-turbo? You are most likely to be up against a pair and a big Ace or 2 pairs. You are behind in both. Against 2 pairs the smaller takes more of your equity than of the other pair's, In the big Ace and pair scenario at least one of your outs is taken.

Classic case of a very good cards in a very bad situation.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 09:36 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
If we get a triple up that will propel us in the rest of the tournament.

Worth the risk IMO.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 09:55 AM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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A popular idea. However a triple up does not triple our probability of winning.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 10:08 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
A popular idea. However a triple up does not triple our probability of winning.
This early in an MTT ICM plays little factor (ie our tournament life doesn't mean as much since our time invested is so low) so if it's +EV for chips then it's +EV overall.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 10:14 AM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Against two, assigned random hands, which I imagine is all we can give them credit for at this stage, our hand is less than 50% to win.

If we give one of them a pair, and the other random, we have ~40%.

On average, we lose more often than we win, and we dont need to do that with 30bb. If we give ourselves a skill edge then there will be better spots.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 11:11 AM
(#8)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
Against two, assigned random hands, which I imagine is all we can give them credit for at this stage, our hand is less than 50% to win.

If we give one of them a pair, and the other random, we have ~40%.
I think you have your answer right here.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 11:13 AM
(#9)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
I think you have your answer right here.
Yeah, I expect to lose more than I win. And at this stage I do not need to take that risk.

Last edited by bhoylegend; Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 11:17 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 11:31 AM
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adohole's Avatar
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Posts: 1,083
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half agree with all this just want to point one thing out if you get aa when 4 random hands are all in you have less then 50% chance to win the hand but its till +ev so dont look how much of the time youll win and if he has 40% to win this hand its a call he is just investing 32% of the pot so if you win that 40% of the time its one big edge.


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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 11:39 AM
(#11)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by adohole View Post
half agree with all this just want to point one thing out if you get aa when 4 random hands are all in you have less then 50% chance to win the hand but its till +ev so dont look how much of the time youll win and if he has 40% to win this hand its a call he is just investing 32% of the pot so if you win that 40% of the time its one big edge.
AA is a very real difference though.

You know for a fact you have the nuts at the time the money goes in and that the other hands will have to suck out on you. With AK, and two AI ahead of us, and 30bb, I don't think we need to gamble.

I rarely play tournaments though so I should probably just leave it with that. One of the HA might have a look and let us know what they think.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 11:46 AM
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yeah aa is a totaly difrent story just wanted to make something clear. but i dont know if its on avarage vs there range its a mistake of about 300 chips to fold there (thats just if he is 40% here wouldnt be suprised if it was closer) but if you on avarage get 20% of you stack extra thats pretty big


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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 12:40 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi Dan!

With AK in the BB, I get two shoves in front of me. For me, there are two keys with this hand. First, it's very early in the tourney, so I don't need to be taking unnecessary risks with unmade hands. Secondly, is that it's a multi-way pot and AK plays much better in a heads-up pot.

If the opps are even shoving a 20% range, then I'm going to lose more than I win here as my hand only has 44% equity. If either of these opps are tighter, then I'm now losing about 2 out of every 3 times here.

While it would be nice to have a larger stack, risking my tourney life where I most likely will lose 2 in every 3 times and be out.. for getting a chip stack that will not guarantee cashing in it, is not worth the risk.

If I had a made hand (QQ+), then I'd call, but I'm mucking AK here.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. Another thing to highly consider here. With two opps in this, one will most likely have a pair, the other will most likely counterfeit my outs (they should have Ax or Kx).


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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 12:45 PM
(#14)
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If either of these opps are tighter (say a 10% range and the one calling the shove should be tighter than the initial opp that shoves), this is only a 2% EV spot (90 chips) and risking my tourney life to only gain 6% of my stack on average where I lose 2 in 3.... IMO, isn't worth the risk.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 01:11 PM
(#15)
DonkeyJez's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 64
Personally I would take this spot at this blind level.
Our main aim is to survive as long as possible with a medium size stack(20-50bb). The blinds in the next level(50/100) will force us into end game push fold decisions, which I think we want to avoid if possible.
Taking a flip to triple up is always +ev and can set us up for the rest of the tourney with a decent stack to work with.

with no stats I think
utg range is 77+ AJ+ , I think we can rule out KK AA due to the open shove.
button range is stronger TT+ AK+.(tag range?)
My decision could be to fold if both players were tight/nitty, the looser they are the more I find shoving better.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 01:14 PM
(#16)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyJez View Post
with no stats I think
utg range is 77+ AJ+ , I think we can rule out KK AA due to the open shove.
button range is stronger TT+ AK+.(tag range?)
Hi DJ!

Against those ranges, it's nowhere near a flip, we lose 3 out of every 4... which also makes it a -EV play to call now.

John (JWK24)


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Last edited by JWK24; Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 01:17 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 01:40 PM
(#17)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
A popular idea. However a triple up does not triple our probability of winning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
This early in an MTT ICM plays little factor (ie our tournament life doesn't mean as much since our time invested is so low) so if it's +EV for chips then it's +EV overall.
And what is a reasonable +EV range?
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 02:09 PM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi all...

If you crunch the numbers, I am of a mind that calling with AKo in this spot is probably a very small +eV play given the game, the likely skill level, and all other considerations. Some scenarioes like one other all in having AK and the other a smaller pp, or a "disaster" scenario of one all in having AA/KK and the other a big A, has you well under the needed equity to call. Others though, like each player having a race pp, or one having 2 lesser broadways and the other a dominated A, has you in great shape equity wise to try for a triple up. So combined, I am guessing the likeliest result would be a small edge in favor...or a small -eV spot.

BUT...

That doesn't matter here; not this early in the event. (At least not in my opinion)

28BB is a stack that you can usually find better spots than one where you will likely bust right around 2 times in 3. If this were a cash game, busting is not the worst thing to do, since you simply reload and try again; so any +eV is good. In an MTT though, the effects of a bust are a loss of any chance to re-coup.

One could make the case that +eV is +eV, tourney or not, and simply playing a larger volume of MTTs will result in a leveling of luck and reversion to the mean expected outcome; in my view though, this arguement for taking any small edge in MTT play is disingenuous. It ignores the fact that a good deal of MTT success relies upon the "luck" of table and seat selection, and not simply the assumption that you will have an advantage in ALL situations, or that the mass of opponents are homogenuous to the point that every seat is exactly the same seat in MTT play.

so without some other seriously good reasons for going for it off a 28BB stack (such as these palyers are way better than you), taking this likely tiny edge (if it is any edge at all) is far too risky.

-JDean


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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 02:57 PM
(#19)
DonkeyJez's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi DJ!

Against those ranges, it's nowhere near a flip, we lose 3 out of every 4... which also makes it a -EV play to call now.

John (JWK24)
The ranges I gave are conservative and could be wider. Really need villain stats here.

I like to look at the overall situation in this spot. What will happen in the next orbit?
While we are still in the early(tight) phase, blind increase is imminent to bring endgame push/fold phase.
We need to take risks very soon to accumulate chips(we might not get another spot).

I can see merits to call or fold and I would base my decision mainly on how loose/tight the bb range was.
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 03:25 PM
(#20)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
interesting hand

here's my 2 pence (GBP ftw)


fold is obviously the safer play, and possibly the more "correct" play in classical hand analysis terms - but there are some factors that i'd also consider here that could make it more of a call:

1) the utg shover is likely to be a huge fish, so im not worried about him having me crushed - if he's played KK/AA this way then gl to him. im more worried about the flatter, whose range should be much stronger
2) our pot odds mean we need 33%ish equity to make this a call - so this means we are getting a bad price IF either villain has AA/KK or if one villain has AK and the other has a pair. in all other situations we are doing okay - note: okay = below 50% ev but still a +ev spot
3) it's not super deepstacked - if everyone was on 5k here at the same blind levels and UTG shoved and a call, i'd fold. got loads of time to stack these donkeys in a better spot later along the line. but here we are not super deepstacked and i think i would take the risk for a good stack on a table of starting stacks



so call here is high variance, high risk, but potential high reward
and in tournaments you are playing for the win which again makes a call more enticing


times i would fold AK here would be:
- if either villain is a confirmed nit (100+ hands running at 5/5 or less probably)
- if the cold caller is a solid player and you feel he'd fold AK and JJ and only go with QQ+
- if stacks were deeper
- if one of villains was on team flanders (they are known experts)




all in all i think i would gamble in this particular spot

Last edited by ouchbadbeat; Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 03:28 PM..
 

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