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25NL 6Max Zoom - Full House with trips on board

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25NL 6Max Zoom - Full House with trips on board - Mon Jan 06, 2014, 06:54 PM
(#1)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496


Unknown villain.

Should I have raised the river for value?
 
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Mon Jan 06, 2014, 09:38 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Zeebos Theorem.

Raise to $11.50 and feel happy about it
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 12:29 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi spand,

I think we can raise here but it's thin... his most likely holdings are Tx or a busted draw, so the question is will he fold a ten to a raise? Birdayy, along with Zeebo, say no. Although I actually think the correct play for V2 is to fold to a raise, as you will almost always have an overpair when you raise this spot. So if the villain were solid, I think raising would be too thin as I'd expect to only get called by the case 8. But vs. an unknown, and being the thin value bettor I am, I slightly in favor going for it vs. Tx and JJ.

Another thing to consider is our raise sizing. The thing is, are we folding if he moves in? Or are we calling? Obviously he will move in with the 8... will he also with JJ or Tx? He may just call with those, so we get an extra $7 when he's got a worse boat that will call, are we losing $21 when he's got quads? This could make it too thin, so before we raise we should consider this and have a plan we're comfortable with. Making a large raise may be the answer if he will call with all his boats anyway, but if we move in directly maybe he finds some folds with Tx.

I think the $11.50 number is about right, as it's large enough to discourage any wild bluffs, and small enough to not dissuade Tx from calling. And fold if he moves in... I would assume a bet/3B river line is the case 8 far too often for us to call the shove profitably.


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