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$11 7.5K : Flatting AKs IP : Paired flop, river trips : Optimal villain bluff line

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$11 7.5K : Flatting AKs IP : Paired flop, river trips : Optimal villain bluff line - Tue Jan 07, 2014, 01:49 AM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Wasn't sure how to title this thread, but I'll try to make it more it clear... there was a certain line the villain took as the original PFR. I wanted to construct/hear comments on the villain's line taken, and what would have been more optimal (as villain) - specific as to how the board ran out. This is not so much how I played the hand with AK.

Villain stats (V): 59 hands
39/28
Flop cbet OOP - srp, 100%(2)
Flop AF 4.0
Call turn bet 50% (2)
River AF 2.0

I did opt to just call here and not raise for value, even though it's pre-antes, as:
(1) I had a read I'd at least get 1+ street(s) of value from V, and
(2) the possibility of the SB squeezing (who I have some history with)

After V reverse floats the turn, what equity does would you hold against an IP villain's betting range here (who floated the flop)... Only to just lead out with a 1/3 pot bet on the river, when the river peels trip J?

The perceived continuing range as V, is quite narrowed when calling the T bet, but is still around 17% (from 28%).

IP, a villain (me) can be floating wide here on these paired boards, and in this case with A high. By reverse floating the turn, wouldn't you want (need) -as V- to bet very big at least on the river or jam... and not give this option to the IP villain?

With perceived equity on the river of still 65-68%, as V, wouldn't (shouldn't) you shove as a bluff line, after reverse floating the turn?

I guess, there is a min. requirement for a particular IP villain type for this to work, where they have a tendency to float wide on the flop IP.


Thanks for commenting...


 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 02:12 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
What do we rep?

Jx basically because QQ+ would 3b pre.

I really don't expect him to bet/fold a full house here very often.
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 02:19 AM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Probably should add that Villain would have seen me on this hand as:

6/0
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 11:26 AM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi Marc Rae

Ok firstly we need to assign a range for villain, as the hand played out I think his range is polarized to 99/KQ/A10/AQ/AK and perhaps something speculative like 89s.


'After V reverse floats the turn, what equity does would you hold against an IP villain's betting range here (who floated the flop)... Only to just lead out with a 1/3 pot bet on the river, when the river peels trip J?'

10x or a missed draw imo, villains bet looks like either a blocker bet or a cheap bluff attempt with his missed draws as I wouldn't expect villain to bet/fold any overpairs or 10x hands.

'IP, a villain (me) can be floating wide here on these paired boards, and in this case with A high. By reverse floating the turn, wouldn't you want (need) -as V- to bet very big at least on the river or jam... and not give this option to the IP villain?

I think you're giving villain too much respect. It's unlikely that villain is on this type of thinking level and all he is trying to do is merely call a bet in hope of hitting his draw but if we switch things around and put ourselves in villains shoes, I don't think we need to be betting big on the river when we miss our draw. It's likely that the guy IP 'you' has a made hand more often than not in this scenario so betting out isn't great imo, especially when it's the Jc.

'With perceived equity on the river of still 65-68%, as V, wouldn't (shouldn't) you shove as a bluff line, after reverse floating the turn?'

Cram our 6300 stack into a pot of 2350? I don't think so, especially in this situation where it's very likely that our opponent has a made hand. He's not going to fold 'in most cases' any full house bigger than 10's full.

Cheers, Chris

Last edited by ChewMe1; Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 04:53 PM
(#5)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks for your time Chris

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChewMe1 View Post
I don't think we need to be betting big on the river when we miss our draw. It's likely that the guy IP 'you' has a made hand more often than not in this scenario so betting out isn't great imo, especially when it's the Jc.
I think so too, and the bets I've seem him showdown with were 60-75%. And with my perceived nit stats, is THE only reason to try to take the pot away on the river. In hindsight, jamming maybe was overkill, but I do try to use this later in the game where I do over pot jam when I have the nuts.

Cheers
 

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