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A6 suited in BB - Flop nut draw - Bet & get big reraise

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A6 suited in BB - Flop nut draw - Bet & get big reraise - Tue Jan 07, 2014, 05:56 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Deep stacked with around 60BBs I have As6s in the Big Blind

Opponent is effective stack of 52BBs

Min bet from early position UTG +2 - folds to me - I call

I flop the nut flush draw and out of position lead with a below half-pot bet of 300 into 675

opponent bites back with a big raise to 1200

I have them covered and we both have plenty left behind



How is it best to proceed in this situation?

Fold to the heat?

Call and peel a card?

Reraise and put pressure on?

It is still relatively early in the MTT, level 5 an hour and a quarter in shortly after late reg closed.

Tourney was the micros $0.55 $750GTD. Most players are looser and overly aggressive, but I didn't have any notes on the opponent.

(I will look for stats!)

Found some stats

VPIP 26 PFR 9 AFQ 39 over 68 hands - not sure that helps much..

Of the 4 flops they had seen from early & middle position they had twice raised to bets.

Anyhoo all thoughts welcome

Ed



Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 06:10 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 06:42 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Reasoning for leading flop? On this texture i'd actually prefer check/calling because we'll pretty much always get the money in flipping or behind.

As played I guess we have to shove? Not sure tbh.
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 08:43 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You start the hand with 60BB. You call a min raise in the BB in a HU situation.

You are a good player Ed, what were you thinking?

I'm not saying that to be snarky, nor to judge your decsion Ed, but rather from the thought that you ARE a good player, so it occurs to me that perhaps you should have had a plan BEFORE you made the decision to get involved with a very marginal holding; ESPECIALLY oop...

As I see it, you got about what you could hope for from this flop. I mean are you REALLY playing to hit 1 pair with an A hit likely in kicker problems oop and a 6 likely too weak to be really continuable oop? If you are not playing for the most typical value flop for your holding (1 pair is always the most typical flop "hit" for any holding), what WERE you playing for? That draw leads to the best, most playable value you are likely to see from A6s.

Well you got it and now is too late really to decide it isn't really what you want...

As I see it Ed, this raise of your donk lead is still laying you 2.4 to 1, and you need right around 4 to 1 to peel. Pot odds alone are not giving it to you, but since this guy is definately aggro you can pretty much expect to get the price you need through implied odds.

You start with 60BB give or take, and you have 4BB comitted to the pot. I'm not convinced your draw with a single board over is a STRONG draw, so with an aggro raiser, a re-raise is likely to be far too risky because it may be too pot comitting this deep. You need to put 4.5BB more in to peel, so your total investment to realize your draw potential on the turn is 8.5BB, or about 14% of your stack.

CALL Problem: you miss the turn and you are almost certainly dumping this without getting to the river...pretty blech! But then who said playing drawing hands versus aggro villains oop is not SUPPOSED to be blech; maybe that is why it isn't such a great idea??? ;-)

So...

Overall, if you are going to enter the pot versus a raise, I think you are pretty much saying to yourself that you WILL put that 14% at risk to perhaps take only 1 shot at a flush draw versus an aggro player. To me, the "answer" to your quandry was inherent in your intial decision to enter for a raise...

Counter Question Ed...would you have played 78s the same way here; by calling the PF raise I mean, then leading on a one way draw?

To paraphrase from "Pulp Fiction", when Jules and Vincent are in the coffee shop after the accidental murder clean up, and Jules has decided to become a wanderer...

"Vincent, if the answers trouble you, perhaps you should cease asking such questions..."

:-)

...but I bet you know this already Ed.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:00 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 07:27 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi Edin,

I don't like the flop lead. Your hand is too weak to be for value and bluffing is unlikely to work as it is highly unlikely that you'll get better hands to fold. Moreover I think your hand has way too much equity to be running a bluff with.

This big raise is another reason why you shouldn't have led. You're facing a bet of 900 into a pot of 2175, giving you 2.4 to 1, meaning you need 29% equity to call. Using the rule of 4 and 2, the chances of you hitting your flush by the river are ~36%, so you're getting the right pot odds to call. You'll also have to pay off a turn bet if you haven't got there on the turn, but I think this is balanced by the implied odds you're getting, which are worse than you probably think as the flush draw is so obvious and you're out of position. Therefore I think calling is fine, but you've made it significantly more expensive than you needed it to be.

The other option is to continue the semi-bluff and raise. Since you're presumably not going to fold to a 4Bet, this means moving all in. This has the advantage of putting maximum pressure on the opponent and you will likely get him to fold AQ or an overpair. However his calling range (sets and two pair) has you way behind. This play is high variance, but might be the optimal play given the donk lead you made.

I think the optimal line is just to check/call two streets and try and hit your flush.
 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 09:14 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

As I see it Ed, this raise of your donk lead is still laying you 2.4 to 1, and you need right around 4 to 1 to peel. Pot odds alone are not giving it to you, but since this guy is definately aggro you can pretty much expect to get the price you need through implied odds.
NOTE: An aggro bettor with the lead (which he'd keep if Ed jsut flats) is hardly the type to give a free street. Therefore Ed is likely going to see a TURN bet as well. As such, to calculate his POT ODDS, one can reasonably think the ratio of what he must commit here to what he might win is only operative for the NEXT street, not both the turn and river.

If you draw to a flush only through the turn, you need a tad over 4 to 1 to break even.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 05:15 PM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks all

I'm not sure I can agree with JDeans comment at the start of his analysis - certainly no evidence here that I am a good player.

Not sure the following comment from spand42 is completely clear as to whether a shove is good or not.

'The other option is to continue the semi-bluff and raise. Since you're presumably not going to fold to a 4Bet, this means moving all in. This has the advantage of putting maximum pressure on the opponent and you will likely get him to fold AQ or an overpair. However his calling range (sets and two pair) has you way behind. This play is high variance, but might be the optimal play given the donk lead you made.

Obviously I quote that because it is exactly what I did - I thought I would get a lot of folds, and could win some when called - but I wasn't happy about it. Too many BBs too early and it all comes from the initial mistake of getting involved too weakly out of position.

Opponent called with QTo and held to not cripple me but leave me a shoving stack which I got in soon after and busted.

great analysis again

Thanks

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:31 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I've seen you play Ed, and I'd characterize you as pretty good, hence my opening remark. Don't argue, I'm right, and you are wrong :-)

First off, my post was not really in answer to your specific questions as posted. Please let me explain why...

I can see reason to donk lead into this guy, but the aggro nature of his actions on prior hands really argue agaisnt that move. So I agree with Spand 100% that a donk lead versus this villain is pretty ick.

With that said, you can build a pot versus the aggro spew fish nicely, for a risk of "only" about 14% of your stack. If you bink your nut flush, this is EXACTLY the sort of guy who will turn a top pair hand into a bluff when you check a turn hit, and you can extract nicely from him as a result.

Therefore I much prefer a line where you flat the raise, check/call or check/fold the turn, depending upon whether you miss.

Perhaps you think it might be "spew-y" to play a line like this, as you will only get there about 1 time in 5 rather than 1 time in 3 if you see both the turn and river. That is the nature of speculative hands though, I mean you do not expect to bink a set every tie you call into a multi way pot with 33 do you? I mean there is an image benefit to mucking a turn miss too, as it sinmply re-inforces this guy in his aggro play back ways, thus making it even MORE likely you will be able to extract big when you are in a better spot. That is kind of what speculation is all about...if you hit you win big getting there, but when you miss, you look all loose and chase-y, and they forget sometimes you WILL make a hand!

I give you credit as a good player Ed to recognize that this is the guy who will pay off like a broken slot machine if you happen to hit, and also if you do not hit, the loss you suffer here is not one you cannot overcome. But the important thing in my opinion is to not "panic" and pick a pretty "meh" time to try a hi risk/hi reward play when you can surely find a better spot.

If losing that 14% makes you upset, then do not speculate oop with drawing hands in the first place!

But you really do not have to win everything on 1 hand, nor do you have to win EVERY hand you enter. ;-)


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 06:36 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:54 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
Hi Edin,

I don't like the flop lead. Your hand is too weak to be for value and bluffing is unlikely to work as it is highly unlikely that you'll get better hands to fold. Moreover I think your hand has way too much equity to be running a bluff with.

This big raise is another reason why you shouldn't have led. You're facing a bet of 900 into a pot of 2175, giving you 2.4 to 1, meaning you need 29% equity to call. Using the rule of 4 and 2, the chances of you hitting your flush by the river are ~36%, so you're getting the right pot odds to call. You'll also have to pay off a turn bet if you haven't got there on the turn, but I think this is balanced by the implied odds you're getting, which are worse than you probably think as the flush draw is so obvious and you're out of position. Therefore I think calling is fine, but you've made it significantly more expensive than you needed it to be.

The other option is to continue the semi-bluff and raise. Since you're presumably not going to fold to a 4Bet, this means moving all in. This has the advantage of putting maximum pressure on the opponent and you will likely get him to fold AQ or an overpair. However his calling range (sets and two pair) has you way behind. This play is high variance, but might be the optimal play given the donk lead you made.

I think the optimal line is just to check/call two streets and try and hit your flush.
Spand,

I am not sure I agree with your optimal line.

CALL/CALL on the flop and turn is not going to see you getting a right price very often in my opinion versus an aggro type bettor with no notable sizing issues in his bets. Ed would need to see 2 to 1 on the SUM of the likely flop and turn bets in order to get a price for a CALL/CALL line. That probably isn't happening. Also, by adopting a CALL/CALL line on a draw flop, ED basically turns his hand face up to say he is on the come. As such, he is making it a lot harder to get paid off if he does hit the flush, so he may not have enough in implied odds if the flush fills.

As such, I get Ed's reasoning for the donk lead on the come. Doing so may twig the villain to the fact he is drawing (donk leads often are draws on coordinated boards), but flatting the villain's raise could also be Ed's way of not overplaying a Q. As such, his chances of getting paid on a 3rd spade are not hurt as much as if he plays more passively in my opinion.

BUT...

The problem with this line is he is only going to get 1 chance to spike. If you recognize this ahead of time and recognize there is enough benefit in speculating 14% of your stack to win a big pot, and/or that the image enhancement of a turn miss may pay you dividends in looser raises and calls by this opp later on, then that specualtion is not really awful...

But if you are not READY to accept the realities of that sort of speculation, and find yourself prone to turning a well reasoned risk/reward play into a VERY risky semi bluff at the micro stakes, then it is probably better that you not try to sepculate on drawing hands oop in the first place.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 07:07 PM
(#9)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Spand,

I am not sure I agree with your optimal line.

CALL/CALL on the flop and turn is not going to see you getting a right price very often in my opinion versus an aggro type bettor with no notable sizing issues in his bets. Ed would need to see 2 to 1 on the SUM of the likely flop and turn bets in order to get a price for a CALL/CALL line. That probably isn't happening. Also, by adopting a CALL/CALL line on a draw flop, ED basically turns his hand face up to say he is on the come. As such, he is making it a lot harder to get paid off if he does hit the flush, so he may not have enough in implied odds if the flush fills.
You make a good point. I should have clarified that call/call would depend on the sizing of his bets on both streets. If he makes it something like 3/4 pot or bigger on the flop, I'd be tempted to fold because I'd imagine it's very likely with this villain that you'd see another similar size bet on the turn and like you say, the implied odds being OOP aren't likely that good.
 

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