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Should I have called this 3bet?

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Should I have called this 3bet? - Tue Jan 07, 2014, 01:27 PM
(#1)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
I have been facing a lot of 3bets lately. I have no reads on this player and opted to be safe rather than sorry but I soon as I hit the fold button I regretted it.

 
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Tue Jan 07, 2014, 02:13 PM
(#2)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,079
TT is a tricky hand to play multi way.

with no reads it is hard to tell what his flat call pre really means, I think we can rule out AA,KK. and possibly even QQ. given that we are looking at JJ and under AK, AQ maybe he plays AJs and broadway cards. his range should be narrower, but in 2nl with no reads he could be very wide here.

Even if he holds AQ or Aj with the A of spades and all his broadway cards with one spade we are in a coin flip on that flop. and we are crushed by all his over pairs that hold a spade.

given that I would probably elect to check call a flop bet with the intention of folding to further action, if the board pairs or we turn a set or a J of spades or 7 of spades hit I might call a second barrel if it is reasonable.

check folding isn't bad either but I think we can call one bet, if he doesn't have the goods he is probably going to be one and done. I would feel very comfortable folding to a turn bet either way.

I can't say I hate the bet fold to the 2 bet line that you took, I just think we get more information for the same price by check calling.

this might have been a good spot for a squeeze play pre flop. we could have made it .45 to go and folded to a 4 bet, might have been easier to play that way.

gl at the tables

Last edited by FireMedic815; Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:29 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 07:40 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think there's two ways you can play this pot. You can just check/call or you can donkbet with the intention of going all in vs a raise.

The problem with check/calling or playing this hand passively is that most turn cards are going to leave you in more of a quandry than you currently in. If you hit your flush, you probably aren't that happy. If you hit a set, they might have just made a boat or their flopped flush is still good. Then again they might have JJ or the naked As/Ks.

In this siutation I like your donk bet, but I'd lead for bigger than you did - make it closer to pot sized and it's much easier for you to go all in vs a raise. For the purposes of my calculations, let's pretend that villain shoved instead of raised. This is equivalent to you 3Bet shoving assuming he calls 100% of the time.

Villain's would shove all his made hands: sets, 98, 76 and flushes. I think he would also shove naked As, maybe naked Ks. Against this range, you have 38.6% equity. You have pot odds of about 1.4:1 so you need 41.6% pot odds to call.

Going back to the actual situation, I think your shove has some fold equity, which I think makes the shove a +EV play.

If you had donkbet bigger, you could go all in for relatively cheaper, making it a clearer shove.
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 04:49 PM
(#4)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post

Villain's would shove all his made hands: sets, 98, 76 and flushes. I think he would also shove naked As, maybe naked Ks. Against this range, you have 38.6% equity. You have pot odds of about 1.4:1 so you need 41.6% pot odds to call.


Sorry could you please explain this a bit more I’m struggling to get it in my head
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:02 PM
(#5)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Thanks for asking me to explain this further. I probably didn't explain myself very well and I actually realised that I made an error in my calculations.

I hope that the first sentence is pretty clear. You can use the Odds Calculator to calculate what odds you have against a certain range of hands. Putting your hand against the range I assigned, you have a 38.6% chance of winning the hand if it went all in on the flop.

Why am I talking about all in equity? I think calling your opponent's raise would be a mistake here, so the decision has to be whether to go all in or fold. To calculate what the correct decision is, we can just pretend the villain went all in and calculate the odds based on that.

Assuming the villain went all in, the pot currently stands at $0.43 (preflop action) + $0.24 (your bet) + $1.65 (villain going all in) = $2.32. You would have to call $1.41 to win a pot of $2.32. This means you have pot odds of 2.32:1.41, or 1.65:1.

To work out the pot odds as a percentage, you add together to two parts of the ratio (1.65+1) and work out the reciprocal of this number (i.e. 1 divided by (1.65+1)). This gives you a pot odds percentage of 37.7%.

Therefore in order to make a profitable call, your equity needs to be greater than 37.7%. Since your equity is 38.6%, calling an all in bet would be a profitable play.

Now going back to your actual hand, since you should raise all in, your opponent will occasionally fold. This makes your chances of winning the hand even higher, which makes going all in a +EV play.

I hope I've explained this a bit clearer!
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:37 PM
(#6)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Ok I have got all that but still un sore where you get my equity and what you mean by naked As. Sorry not fully up with poker lingo yet.

Thank you for all you help
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:42 PM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michae2005 View Post
Ok I have got all that but still un sore where you get my equity and what you mean by naked As. Sorry not fully up with poker lingo yet.

Thank you for all you help
Naked As means the Ace of Spades with some other random card that is irrelevant.

Your equity is difficult to calculate! You have to guess what your opponent might have, then work out how many outs you have. You can only make educated guesses at the table while playing, but the great thing about the Odds Calculator Tool is that after the hand is finished, you can mess around with different hand ranges and see what equity you have against different ranges.

Doing this kind of homework away from the tables will help you make better decisions whilst playing!
 
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Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:48 PM
(#8)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Thank you
 

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