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10NL 6-max Zoom TT

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10NL 6-max Zoom TT - Wed Jan 08, 2014, 06:59 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain who squeezes is playing 27/24/16 over 133 hands.

I think I'm ahead of his range here, so folding is out of question right ?
Calling with this sort of vulnerable hand is good ?

I considered shoving over the top. And tried to make the math. Not sure if it's correct

If he's calling out shove only with JJ+ and AK (3% of the 16% range athough I actually think he'd squeeze lighter than 3-bet) it goes like this:
Calls + Fold
Calls = 0.19*( 0.336*20.4 - 0.664*20.4 )
Fold= 0.81*1,9

0.19*( 0.336*20.4 - 0.664*20.4 ) + 0.81*1,9

-1.27 + 1.53

+0.26

So I think shoving here if +EV. And if he's calling lighter like 88+ AK, AQs. Then It's even more profitable to shove.
At least I think it's more profitable than just folding getting an EV of -0.30
What are you guys thoughts ?



Cheers!

Last edited by fp_boss77; Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 07:35 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 06:36 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I refer you to a hand that GarethC analysed from birdayy with a very similar spot:

25NL - EV of a Backshove

Again I'd make a warning about looking at a 16% 3Bet on a relatively small sample size, this could easily mean 2/12 or 3/18, doesn't really tell you much. Do you specifically have a squeeze stat?

With this villain's shorter stack, I see no reason why shoving can't be a profitable play here also like in birdayy's hand. Your maths is pretty sound, so if your reads can be trusted, I think it's a good play to make.
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 10:39 AM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
I refer you to a hand that GarethC analysed from birdayy with a very similar spot:

25NL - EV of a Backshove

Again I'd make a warning about looking at a 16% 3Bet on a relatively small sample size, this could easily mean 2/12 or 3/18, doesn't really tell you much. Do you specifically have a squeeze stat?

With this villain's shorter stack, I see no reason why shoving can't be a profitable play here also like in birdayy's hand. Your maths is pretty sound, so if your reads can be trusted, I think it's a good play to make.
The villain isn't short, spand42... this is 10NL.
The reference to that post of GarethC is spot on.... "why not just 4-bet ?"
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 11:25 AM
(#4)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
If over a large sample, he's 3-betting wide. Something like 9-16%.
Calling the squeeze is a bad option ?
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 01:25 PM
(#5)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkleefstra View Post
The villain isn't short, spand42... this is 10NL.
Thanks for this spot - I got muddled up flipping back and forth between the 25NL and 10NL hands.

In which case Gareth's advice is even more pertinent if you think your opponent is squeezing pretty wide, 4Bet and Call a shove.

I've tended to flat call spots like these in the past, and I think it's a slight mistake. You're not really getting the odds to set mine and if your opponent keeps firing barrels, you're always going to be put in a tough spot, even though you're in position. Are you going to be comfortable calling two barrels on a 9-high board? Are you going to call barrels on a Q-high flop even though the villain might hold AK a fair amount?

The other problem with flat calling both the original raise and the squeeze is that your hand is almost turned face up that it's some kind of medium pocket pair, 77-JJ and your opponent can play accordingly (if he's hand reading well).
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 04:25 PM
(#6)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
So your saying that I should've 3B the UTG raiser myself ?
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 06:23 AM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think calling the original raise is fine with a hand like TT on the button.

This whole discussion about 4Betting vs the squeeze depends on how wide you think the villain will squeeze. If he's only squeezing with value hands, then I think you can fold.

However this villain seems to be much looser than that and this is a prime squeezing spot, so I might expect him to be even looser than the 16% you have on him already. This is where Gareth's advice comes in.
 

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