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5NL 6max Zoom. Commitment decision on turn.

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5NL 6max Zoom. Commitment decision on turn. - Thu Jan 09, 2014, 09:34 AM
(#1)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84


This guy has 950 hands.
His stats is 19/16. Agression factor 4/3/2.


On the flop I think my hand equity + his agression factor is enough to justify the call. Isn't it?

The turn is the one I am not quite sure about. I expect either split, or loose.

Don't see him doing that with any other but AQs,KQs,JsQs - do I range him too tight for this spot?

Should I plan to commit only if river isn't a spade?

Or is it a flip coin situation and it doesn't matter what do I do?

Last edited by morduk666; Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 09:47 AM..
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#2)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I think I would shove on the turn. You have the second nuts and two blockers to the nuts.

AQ beats you,
Qx with a flushdraw has some outs against you but is prob a split
Qx without a flushdraw is prob a split or might fold if they believe you have AQ.

(keep in mind, you have QQ so any Qx is "unlikely")

Any flushdraw makes an error if they call your shove.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 10:55 AM..
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 10:53 AM
(#3)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkleefstra View Post
I think I would shove on the turn. You have the second nuts and two blockers to the nuts.
What range will I represent when shoving?
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 10:59 AM
(#4)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by morduk666 View Post
What range will I represent when shoving?
About the range you are blocking: Qx.

Doesn't really matter what x is.... but QA is ofc the nuts and is deffo in your range
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 03:12 AM
(#5)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi morduk666!

I think calling the flop raise is fine against this villain. His raise could be for value/protection holding a set, two pair type hand or it could be with a strong draw. You have an overpair and an open ended striaght draw giving you decent equity to improve.

I agree with rkleefstra about moving all in on the turn. AQ is the only hand were are behind at the moment and you have two of the Qs and could catch an A on the river even if he is holding it. My main reason for moving in on the turn though is that if the villain is on a flush draw, he will pay you off now. Whereas if you wait to the river he will be able to fold all the times he misses. Aslo, the pot has become so large that the rest of his chips are probably going in on the river either way.

As played, the river is a brick and the villain still moves in. He looks strong, but you are beating or splitting with everything except AQ. You are going to be ahead or splitting often enough to make the half pot bet an easy call.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 03:12 AM
(#6)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
what is villains range on the river?
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:06 AM
(#7)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi Praydk

I would expect to see a lot of sets and Qx hands as well as a few two pair hands sometimes that think we were chasing a flush draw and we cannot completely rule out air. We are splitting with all the Qx hands except AQ. Since the bet is only half the pot, we are profitable calling unless we put the villain on exactly AQ. This is too narrow a range.
 

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