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Small pockets pairs facing 3bets

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Small pockets pairs facing 3bets - Thu Jan 09, 2014, 04:42 PM
(#1)
Buffaloon's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 29
What should be going through my head when deciding to fold or flat? Presumably there's an element of implied odds involved but is it just as simple as re-evaluating the implied odds as if you were just facing a standard bet or is there more to it that than?

Kind of want a bit more of a rule of thumb than the guessing game I'm currently playing. Let's stick to 100BBs deep, hero raises to 3x, gets 3betted to 9x, all others fold.
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 04:58 PM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I'd usually fold small pocket pairs to a 3bet for 100bb effective unless I have a rock solid read that I am getting a stack if I hit it. That's assuming it is a normal 3bet.
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 06:00 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

A rule of thumb is normally 15 : 1 to set mine. I do a quick calculation to see if I have at least 10 : 1 and twice that 20 : 1.

So you are looking for between 10 and 20 times what you have to call. In your example the call is 6x, so say that's 1200 chips. Multiply it by 10 = 12K then double it = 24K.

If you and your opponent have 24K in chips you are deep enough. The sweet spot is half way between these two numbers 18K for the 15 : 1.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 06:03 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 09:32 PM
(#4)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
A bit of analysis:

At 100 bb effective stacks the hero is calling 6 with at max 13.5 in the pot heasds up and 91 behind. So hero has implied odds of 114:6 or a bit under 20:1. A pair will flop a set about 12% of the time or about 8:1 against. Sounds good so far doesn't it.

But you won't get the villain's stack every time you hit. The SPR is about 90:20 or 4.5 to one. With 2:1 pot odds you must average get 6 x 8, or 48 bb of the 91 in villain's stack (53%) the 12% you hit. There will also be times where your set won't hold when flopped.

So the question is will you get the villain's stack at least 60% of the time you hit?
 
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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 10:25 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Check out http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Poker-Bites
There's a nice clip on playing small pairs that I think answers this question with some good examples.


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Thu Jan 09, 2014, 11:31 PM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
If you are UTG with a PP and UTG+1 3bets i think we have the implied odds to call because their range will be so strong assuming 100bb.
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 06:56 PM
(#7)
Buffaloon's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Hi,

A rule of thumb is normally 15 : 1 to set mine. I do a quick calculation to see if I have at least 10 : 1 and twice that 20 : 1.

So you are looking for between 10 and 20 times what you have to call. In your example the call is 6x, so say that's 1200 chips. Multiply it by 10 = 12K then double it = 24K.

If you and your opponent have 24K in chips you are deep enough. The sweet spot is half way between these two numbers 18K for the 15 : 1.
Thanks for the info. Yeah this is what I've been going on so far just wanted to know if anything changes in 3bet pots or if it's just another quick number crunch.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Check out http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Poker-Bites
There's a nice clip on playing small pairs that I think answers this question with some good examples.
Cheers Arty. Yeah useful stuff but a little too basic. Handy if you're new to the concepts I guess but doesn't really get into the specific numbers (although I do know them now)

Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
If you are UTG with a PP and UTG+1 3bets i think we have the implied odds to call because their range will be so strong assuming 100bb.
Definitely been thinking about that. Seems that the higher end of their range is 3betting us and so is more likely to stick with their made hands. Obviously read dependent.


Just a quick thank you to you all. Means a lot that you guys all reply so quickly and informatively. Most of you guys are very familiar faces to me as I watch a hell of a lot of training vids and you guys always keep the classes going with your questions. Keep it up, helps me (and I presume a lot of other people who can't participate due to time zones)get the most out of this site
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 09:54 PM
(#8)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Bump...

Thought this was an interesting topic. So offer a cash example, 3-bet pot small pocket pair under 100 deep and fold. I do have the call 37c x 10 = $3.70 in my stack for 10 : 1 but not approaching 15 : 1.

Then considered the over call to the 3-bet on my right in the bb that looks strong but with a shorter stack? I tried to squeeze the numbers up a bit and decided to fold. Now what do you think of the bb play?

 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 12:47 AM
(#9)
Buffaloon's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Bump...

Thought this was an interesting topic. So offer a cash example, 3-bet pot small pocket pair under 100 deep and fold. I do have the call 37c x 10 = $3.70 in my stack for 10 : 1 but not approaching 15 : 1.

Then considered the over call to the 3-bet on my right in the bb that looks strong but with a shorter stack? I tried to squeeze the numbers up a bit and decided to fold. Now what do you think of the bb play?
Hope you don't mind if I have a go at answering. Feel free to let me know if I've misunderstood.
It takes $0.37 to call. 15 times this = $5.55. However the pot is already $1.21 so we only need to gain another $4.34 from our opponent which we have with our effective stack being $4.75. I guess the potential added action from the short stack when we hit our set adds to this to some extent?

I think you forgot to factor in what's added to the pot? I hope I'm right in saying that the pot is part of the implied odds. Thanks for the hand

Last edited by Buffaloon; Sun Jan 12, 2014 at 12:53 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 01:18 AM
(#10)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffaloon View Post
I think you forgot to factor in what's added to the pot? I hope I'm right in saying that the pot is part of the implied odds. Thanks for the hand
Perfect question. But with my utg raise with 66 and $4.75 behind + 15c open there are so many over cards to make this a problem post flop.

The JJ was not looking at implied odds to set mine but as an over pair to the board and got lucky as losing vs QQ pre. I got out of trouble by folding a small pair with this 3-bet action.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Jan 12, 2014 at 01:34 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 08:38 AM
(#11)
Buffaloon's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Perfect question. But with my utg raise with 66 and $4.75 behind + 15c open there are so many over cards to make this a problem post flop.

The JJ was not looking at implied odds to set mine but as an over pair to the board and got lucky as losing vs QQ pre. I got out of trouble by folding a small pair with this 3-bet action.
Aren't all of the better hands in your opponents ranges actually increasing your implied odds as they'll continue with their overpairs when you hit? This is why set mining vs. nits is profitable.
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 10:14 AM
(#12)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffaloon View Post
I think you forgot to factor in what's added to the pot? I hope I'm right in saying that the pot is part of the implied odds.
Exactly. It's a call of 37c to win what's in the pot already, plus a double up of whatever the effective stack will be after the call.
Assuming Forrest stacks off against the deep-stacked player when he hits his set, the maximum win is $1.21+$4.38 = $5.59. This is slightly more than fifteen times the 37c required to call, so profitable set-mining is possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Perfect question. But with my utg raise with 66 and $4.75 behind + 15c open there are so many over cards to make this a problem post flop.
Overcards are not a problem. You're set-mining. Very occasionally you'll get over-setted, but most of the time when you hit a 2-outer, villain won't, and he will pay off with an overpair or TPTK.

In short, you can go set-mining in multiway 3-bet pots, because there's a bigger pot to win, thanks to all the dead money, and the greater likelihood of a villain having something to pay off with when you get lucky.


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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 05:21 PM
(#13)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks Arty,

I thought over pairs are going to hit their set as often as we hit ours. Then multi-way in 3-bet pots there will be stronger pairs and draws to a better hand relative to a baby set. I suppose that was a call then with 66 in my example.
 

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