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25nl - River value in 3b pot

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25nl - River value in 3b pot - Thu Jan 09, 2014, 11:07 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats;

VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 10, AF: 1.0, Hands: 198



Villain is pretty meh reg. I'd say he's a losing player from what i've seen. He's also pretty weak post flop so decided to 3b with Q9s as it's just outside my flatting range and flops pretty decently.

Get donked into OTF so it's a pretty straightfoward call and reevaluate imo.

Unless he has AQ here (KQ would never donk this board) we are good against almost anything he has OTR.

If we do vbet, what kind of sizing should we be putting out on the river?
 
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Fri Jan 10, 2014, 03:39 AM
(#2)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi birdayy!

I have been focusing on spots like this in my own game lately.

The villain could be donk betting the flop with a wide range and when he checks the turn and river it does look like he has given up on the hand. If we are going to bet the river we need to ask ourself two questions. Are we getting any of the hands beating us to fold? Are we getting any of the hands we beat to call?

The villain might fold some of the QJ, Q10 hands beating us if the K scared him. I think we need to bet fairly small if we hope to get pocket pairs 88 - JJ to call, but they might call if they think we are bluffing with a missed draw.

I would want to see his postflop stats before deciding. Checking it down is safe, but I think betting a third to half the pot will be profitable. Betting more will most likely fold out the hands you are beating.

PS: I wouldn't say KQ will never donk this board. I take that line often enough myself exactly because it is unexpected. (Don't tell anyone!)

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 

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