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Middle Pair In Middle Position

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Middle Pair In Middle Position - Sat Jan 11, 2014, 09:41 AM
(#1)
royalraise85's Avatar
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Q.1 Are pocket 8's good enough to call a 3-bet preflop in a situation like this?

Q.2 Would I have been better to bet out on the flop and show some aggression?

Raiser


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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 09:52 AM
(#2)
Danutz75's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 273
Well as it is 6 max we need to open up our ranges a little, I would prefer a 4 bet pre with the intention of getting it in against a relative shorty.

As you played it, the flop and turn is just about as perfect a board as we could hope for without hitting our set. I would be betting around 70% pot and calling any raise, or if my flop bet is flatted, getting the rest in on the turn.
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 06:01 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Raiser!

QUESTION 1:

Given those stats (very normal, no real extremes in 6 max), in my opinion calling the PF 3bet is a bit blech with 88.

A) The guy is not overly loose, nor overly aggro, so 88 might not be in great shape.
B) The guy is on just a 50BB stack, therefore there is not enough there really to call his 3bet to set mine.
C) You will be oop with a hand that will be quite hard to play in the face of frequent over cards on the flop.

If you have a clearer idea of something you might exploit in his play than you have given us here, then I could possibly see taking a shot. Without that info though, me no likee...

QUESTION 2 (my opinion):

I do not like betting 88 here unless you are doing so for value. If you think he might flat on a flush draw, or even on just 2 overs, then I do not mind a lead. Similarly, if he is likely to try a semi bluff move with hands such as these over a bet, AND if you intend to call/jam any move he might make, I do not mind a donk lead.

Was there something in your mind keeping you from feeling 88 was a value hand on this flop? I mean like maybe the fact this guy's stats did not necessarily mark him as a person prone to wild moves?

You see...

In essence Raiser, it strikes me that the shortness of this guy's stack makes it very tough for you to turn your 88 into an effective bluff at any time in this hand after the flop (at least without a read that he will put lots in, then fold). Therefore if you feel your 88 is a value call on the flop, then that turn is very rarely going to change whether you are ahead or behind.

As played, flatting the C-bet OR leading the flop, without the intent of going to the wall for his stack on a blank turn (and the 2 there is pretty blank) is giving chips away in my opinion. I think you probably would have benefitted in making that decision before you acted OTF.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 10:16 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Hi Paul,

We can not profitably call the 3b with a small or medium pair OOP here. It's costing us .15c and the maximum we can win now is $5.50, so our implied odds are 11-1. We need to have better than this generally (I recommend 15-1) to try and flop a set.

The post flop question is part of the problem with calling, when we don't hit a set of 8's we are somewhat at his mercy. Check/calling once and check/folding the turn is fine (but when he holds AK he gets to realize his equity and maybe river us, and if he's over aggro and moves all in with it we fold the best hand). Check/calling off is not going to be profitable long term vs. someone who's not a wild bluffer. You can bet out on the flop, but you have to fold to a raise, and if he flat calls, probably have to check/fold the turn as it's usually an overpair continuing here.


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Mon Jan 13, 2014, 10:09 AM
(#5)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

A) The guy is not overly loose, nor overly aggro, so 88 might not be in great shape.
B) The guy is on just a 50BB stack, therefore there is not enough there really to call his 3bet to set mine.
C) You will be oop with a hand that will be quite hard to play in the face of frequent over cards on the flop.
Thanks JD,

A) Makes sense.

B) Are we talking about the 'Call 20' rule here? If so my understanding is that villain would need to have a stack of at least 160 BBs for a call to have long-term prospects here, right? His raise was 8 BBs x 20 = 160 BBs

C) Also makes sense.

Raiser


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Mon Jan 13, 2014, 10:17 AM
(#6)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
You can bet out on the flop, but you have to fold to a raise
Thanks Dave,

After reading the replies and looking at the hand again I've come to the conclusion that the best play would be to fold to the raise preflop and save myself a world of hurt in later streets but I also note your point that it might have been better to bet out on the flop if I was continuing in the hand.

By betting out I'm giving myself a better chance to win the hand and looking back on it pocket eights are no way near strong enough to be check-calling with here.

Raiser


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Wed Jan 22, 2014, 10:36 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post



B) Are we talking about the 'Call 20' rule here? If so my understanding is that villain would need to have a stack of at least 160 BBs for a call to have long-term prospects here, right? His raise was 8 BBs x 20 = 160 BBs



Raiser
See what Langolier said. I too agree with a minimum of 15 to 1 to make set mining worthwhile usually.

If you intend to playu fit or fold, you will flop a set about 1 time in 8.5. So if you see at least 8.5 to 1 in his stack, you will break even to set mine only if he will stack off 100% of the time you flop a set. Also, in order to break even to set mine vs this size stack, you must also WIN 100% of the time you flop a set...

Since sometimes you will have a villain fold without stacking off completely, and sometimes you will flop a set but lose, you need more than the exact off setting price to odds ratio to make set mining worthwhile. 15 to 1 win potential is usually a pretty good minimum.

11 to 1 means this guy will have to stack off completely just a little too often to really make a set mine a profitable play.


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