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Big Bang - AKo close spot

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Big Bang - AKo close spot - Sat Jan 11, 2014, 03:24 PM
(#1)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
Big Bang. Bubble is about 18 spots away. Min-cash is $11 for nothing, and cashes above that move slowly.



Utg-raiser I played against back in August, and I wrote that he was a decent TAG. No reads on the reshover.

I chose to fold this close spot because there isn't a huge jump between money spots other than simply cashing, and the TAG utg had me covered. Was this a good fold given money spots, or should I have shoved anyways?

I welcome any analyzer for this hand.
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:27 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
If we are close to bubble or on the bubble, I am folding as well.
I don't believe we are ahead of utg's range ever there, beside if they have AQ and rarely AJs.
But with the 3-bet-shove it becomes extremely hard to have the biggest equity hand 3ways.
I don't know if utg is folding with 99 there to your reshove, that would made shoving a lot more profitable but we can't really base our decision on hypothesis.
So for me well played, not many can fold AK there.
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:33 PM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
When Villain1 calls, there is 5667 in the pot.

We are risking what we have left 7261 to win 5667.

((5667+7261) / 5667) . 1/E = 43.8% equity. Meaning we need at least this to be BE.

Without considering Villain UTG, let's give Villain1 a range of 3.6% (to be able to shove over UTG)... so this is 99+, AK+, and have included AQs.

This gives us 43.16% equity, so it's a bordeline call.

But in reality we have a UTG raiser who is marked as TAG. Is he a TAG who has a fold button with this much action in front, if you did shove?

Obv, he has a raising range utg, but what would his possible calling range be with 2 people that have shoved... and by continuing would leave him crippled if he called, and lost against you.

A polarised range.. let's say, QQ+, AKs. (1.16%)

This gives us 21.15% in a 3way.. so no where near the equity to call here. Even if you had AKs, you're only 25%.

For it to be BE here, you want to have at least have KK+ here, with 49.5%. QQ is only 36.4%

Someone can comment if I don't quite have the calcs. correct.

.Adding 99+ to UTG Villains range gives us only 30.5%.

Last edited by Marc Rae; Sat Jan 11, 2014 at 09:10 PM.. Reason: reworked the %'s as I had flop and turn values from a previous hand - forgot to delete them, no wonder the figures were funny
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 05:05 PM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi Christxof

Our decision should be based on the reads we have on the UTG raiser and how we feel that the rest of the table perceive him. If the table perceives him to be a lag or a fish then villain ones 10 big blind reshoving range will be wider than normal, something like KK+,99-77,AJs+,AJo+ vs seems about right versus looser players.

If we feel that UTG's range is wide enough that he will fold to our shove then we ought to be cramming it in.

Unless the bubble is money means a lot to you then we shouldn't allow the bubble money to make our decision for us. In MTT's the minimum payout tends to be less than the buy in so we definitely shouldn't let the pressure of the bubble effect many +ev spots.

Ultimately I think that we ought to cram it in if the UTG raiser is loose and fold if he's tight and if he's somewhere inbetween there is an argument for folding the hand but I still think it would be best to get the money in.

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 05:18 PM
(#5)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks, ChewMe.

This was the Big Bang tournament, meaning playing was free, a min-cash is $10, and it's over 3/4 of the field being eliminated before the prize reaches $20. If this were a standard MTT, I would 100% agree that a cold 4-bet reshove would probably be best. But the big jump for money with a min-cash, as well as the extremely tiny jumps after that, leant me more towards caring about getting to that money.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
 

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