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JJ 25nl zoom 4bet pot

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JJ 25nl zoom 4bet pot - Mon Jan 13, 2014, 07:41 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi PSO,

vs 20/14/1,8AF 1,6k hands

Fold to 3bet 37%
Steal/RFI from CO: 18
4bet: 25,9%
cbet on 3bet pot: flop 5/5, turn 3/4 river 1/2 (its a 4bet pot)

So when this very tight player open from CO, being a little deep I kind of have a difficult decision preflop. He doesn't fold much to 3bets, but he is more likely to 4bet or fold than call my 3bet. Being a little deeper I think I can call a normal size 4bet, I think I can never 5bet or shove since his high 4bet it is also result of he being very tight with his openings. So 3bet or just call?

My other question is on the turn what would be more ev, because I feel like if I am calling just hoping he gives up on the river, and the only bluffs I seem him having its the nut flush draw. So call turn or fold?

I think i can ever call vs this player on the river, but tell me if you think otherwise.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (Button) ($33.52)
SB ($53.82)
BB ($22.25)
UTG ($6.45)
MP ($11.59)
CO ($58.04)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.10, 2 folds, CO raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.40

Flop: ($9.35) 7, 3, 7 (2 players)
CO bets $3.40, Hero calls $3.40

Turn: ($16.15) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $7.20, Hero calls $7.20

River: ($30.55) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $25.70, Hero folds

Total pot: $30.55 | Rake: $1.37

Results below:
Click to show hidden text
 
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Mon Jan 13, 2014, 08:48 PM
(#2)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
hi there,

just a quick q, is that his 4bet range stat or 4bet%? results would be severely skewed when calc if 5bet jamming is +EV here
 
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Mon Jan 13, 2014, 11:04 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Carlos,

The villain doesn't have a steal range from the CO, he's basically opening the same range as normal... Normally I don't like 3-betting JJ, it's a clear call vs. this opening range, because 3-betting tends to fold out worse hands and only hands that JJ doesn't play well against continue. However, this villain isn't really normal... for some reason he's very sticky preflop once he raises (fold to 3B of 37% is very low). So in this case I actually prefer 3-betting.

If we use the stats, we can construct his 4b range and 3b-calling range. 18% opens from CO, and he continues to our 3B with 63% of those, is 11.34% of hands. He 4-bets 25.9% of those hands, or the top 2.94%

So his 3-bet calling range looks something like this:

44-JJ,A8s-AQs,KQs,ATo-AQo

And his 4-betting range looks like this:

QQ+,AKs,AKo

In short, he is going to continue vs. our 3B with a ton of dominated hands, and when he 4-bets, we know exactly what's going on.

So the 4b does come, it costs us 2.40 to continue, with 6.60 already in the pot and 29 more behind effective so implied odds of 35.60-2.40 or 14.8-1. So we can 3b for value and call a normal sized 4b. I would call this small flop bet, and give up when he barrels the turn as this now really weights him to KK+ imo.


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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 10:06 AM
(#4)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks Dave, that confirms my suspicions that I should have folded turn. Interesting to see that even with that high 4bet%, he doesn't really have a 4bet bluff range.

What tool are you using now to see what hands represent a given %? I am missing pokerstove to do that.

Thanks again.
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 10:21 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
What tool are you using now to see what hands represent a given %? I am missing pokerstove to do that.
I used PT4's equity calculator to pull the ranges since it has both include and exclude slide bars, and I had it open anyway at the time.

Equilab is a good free equity calculator you can pick up to replace pokerstove.


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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 01:30 PM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Thanks Dave, that confirms my suspicions that I should have folded turn. Interesting to see that even with that high 4bet%, he doesn't really have a 4bet bluff range.

What tool are you using now to see what hands represent a given %? I am missing pokerstove to do that.

Thanks again.
I got poker stove thorough buying the crushing the microstakes book

 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 02:40 PM
(#7)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
That seems like a link to the pokerstove download page, pokerstove was always free, does it still works for you mike?
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 02:48 PM
(#8)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Thats funny i just clicked on it and it isnt working now, the last time i used it was about a month ago and it was working when i downloaded from that link, my bad.
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 06:09 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Carlos,

The villain doesn't have a steal range from the CO, he's basically opening the same range as normal... Normally I don't like 3-betting JJ, it's a clear call vs. this opening range, because 3-betting tends to fold out worse hands and only hands that JJ doesn't play well against continue. However, this villain isn't really normal... for some reason he's very sticky preflop once he raises (fold to 3B of 37% is very low). So in this case I actually prefer 3-betting.

If we use the stats, we can construct his 4b range and 3b-calling range. 18% opens from CO, and he continues to our 3B with 63% of those, is 11.34% of hands. He 4-bets 25.9% of those hands, or the top 2.94%

So his 3-bet calling range looks something like this:

44-JJ,A8s-AQs,KQs,ATo-AQo

And his 4-betting range looks like this:

QQ+,AKs,AKo

In short, he is going to continue vs. our 3B with a ton of dominated hands, and when he 4-bets, we know exactly what's going on.

So the 4b does come, it costs us 2.40 to continue, with 6.60 already in the pot and 29 more behind effective so implied odds of 35.60-2.40 or 14.8-1. So we can 3b for value and call a normal sized 4b. I would call this small flop bet, and give up when he barrels the turn as this now really weights him to KK+ imo.

Am sure I've seen this calculation tons of times before (from Dave ), but for some reason, think sometimes I still make the mistake of using the listed 'call 3Bet %' as the villain's range?


On a related note, I'd better ask everyone about another stat, just in case I'm getting it's usage confused to, but ... is the villain's '3Bet %' for the BB and SB the actual range, or is it too a percent of another stat, or some sort of thing?

Was also kind of wondering if something else needed to be done to it because I added in a 'call late position steal' stat ('cl' on the HUD), and that stat, combined with the '3b' stat isn't adding up to 100-'fts'? It's close though ...

EG.



cl + 3b = 14% + 10% = 24%

fts (in both the sb and bb) = 29%


Thanks so much for the help everybody


PS Carlos, when I got desperate enough, I wound up downloading it from one of those sketchy-looking sites that tries to confuse people into accepting one of their (many) offers, before they finally start the download. Not sure that was the greatest idea though, in terms of computer security ... probably I should have just stuck to using the one that comes with PokerTracker now that I think about it :/

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:16 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 08:46 PM
(#10)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hey Dave, Sam question made me realize something about your range calculation that I don't understand either.

Why are you multiplying the 4bet% only vs the times he continues vs our 3bet and discounting the folds.

From my point of view isn't his range of those 18% when he gets 3bet consist, hands he folds, hands he calls and hands he 4bets, so wouldn't his range would be 18 x (25,9) = 4,6 ?
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 09:05 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
^^am more confused than ever lol


But oh, you know what ... with my question, I forgot to include 'call steals from the sb' - maybe that's the difference? Am taking a break, from taking a break right now (), but will try to double-check stuff later
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 09:26 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
An update, just in case there's others who were interested in just making sure the numbers are what 'we' think they are?




So, 'cl' is 'call late position blind steal attempt', and 'cb' is 'call sb blind steal attempt', and so

cl = 14%
cb = 17%
3b = 10%

fts = 29%

Ahhh, wait ... not sure ...



Also, I opened up this villain's popup, and the 3bet stats by position kind of wound up confusing me all over again ... d'oh!




Gonna go get some juice, and then come back and take a closer look at stuff ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:28 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 10:26 AM
(#13)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Sam, I believe pokertracker should have on help or in their webpage the formula for each stat that could help you.

What you should not mix are average stats with specific stats, I think in your case cl is the average calling when villains opening from a late position, so maybe it could include calls from BTN as well as SB and BB since steals are counted from the CO. And you are mixing it with cb(one position stat) which if is it as you said its only calls from bb on a sb steal attempt. You are also using the average 3b from all positions when you want to see if it adds up with folds and calls to openings from only steal positions.

Hope it helps.
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 10:54 AM
(#14)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
On a related note, I'd better ask everyone about another stat, just in case I'm getting it's usage confused to, but ... is the villain's '3Bet %' for the BB and SB the actual range, or is it too a percent of another stat, or some sort of thing?
Hi Sam,

It's the actual range. Sort of. What I mean is, if their 3B% is 12%, it means they are taking this action facing a raise 12% of the time, and we tend to say "with the top 12% of starting hands" as their actual range. In a technical sense though it might not always be "the top 12%" that you get when you put 12% into the equity calculator to see what that looks like (which shows you roughly the top 12%). For example, if it's a situation where the player feels they should be 3-betting a polarized range of strong hands and bluffs, their 12% might be the top 8% or so, and another 4% that is bluffs like A-rag/K-rag. Hope that makes sense. The best way to evaluate a range is to start by putting that 12% into the equity calc, then tweek it for adjustments you think make sense. So for example if I put 12% into equilab I get this as the top 12%:

77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+

The next step would be to remove hands I don't think villain would 3B, like QTs and JTs, etc. Then I'll add in some light resteal hands to get back to the 12%. And I might get a new range that looks like this:

99+, A2s+, KQs, ATo+, KJo+ (12.07%), a mix of value and resteal. Keep tweeking til I'm satisfied with the range, staying roughly around the % in the end.

Quote:
Was also kind of wondering if something else needed to be done to it because I added in a 'call late position steal' stat ('cl' on the HUD), and that stat, combined with the '3b' stat isn't adding up to 100-'fts'? It's close though ...

EG.



cl + 3b = 14% + 10% = 24%

fts (in both the sb and bb) = 29%
I think your 3B% here is the over all 3B% (over all situations), not just vs. steal raises. Your fold to steal + call steal + 3B steal should add up to 100%.


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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 10:57 AM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Hey Dave, Sam question made me realize something about your range calculation that I don't understand either.

Why are you multiplying the 4bet% only vs the times he continues vs our 3bet and discounting the folds.

From my point of view isn't his range of those 18% when he gets 3bet consist, hands he folds, hands he calls and hands he 4bets, so wouldn't his range would be 18 x (25,9) = 4,6 ?
You are correct, my mistake... good catch!

I'm still taking the same line though, as the strength he shows on the turn barrel weights him towards better hands imo... although our range is probably capped at QQ, we will have QQ/JJ a lot here and he's probably not expecting us to just fold too often with those.


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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 01:10 PM
(#16)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks Dave!
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 11:51 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Okay, thanks so much Carlos and Dave - your points both sound accurate and true. And probably I could keep tinkering around with the numbers to try and get them to match up based on all the help you've given me. Except, things were going just fine with the way I was reading the stats off my HUD before (whether my interpretation of them was right or not) ... and the more I try to delve into their specific meaning, the more confused I seem to be getting.

Think this might be a case of, if it isn't broke, don't fix it?

 

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