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Marginal spot need help analyse

Marginal spot need help analyse - Tue Jan 14, 2014, 03:34 AM
deenugen's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 5
Here is a hand that I less tempted to play but it turned out possitively, The villain has mucked [Qd Ah] at show down:
This is a ZOOM game, and I didnt have much info on the villain, just know he has a massive stack I can win off with my suited connectors; it was cheap to see the flop;
Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2402105

BTN: $1.01
SB: $5.60
BB: $1.15
UTG: $9.93
UTG+1: $1.00
Hero (UTG+2): $2.31
MP1: $1.25
MP2: $5.28
CO: $2.29

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG+2 with J of spades Q of spades
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.04, MP1 calls $0.04, MP2 raises to $0.09, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.05, MP1 calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.30) 4 of spades 3 of spades 2 of clubs (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $0.31, Hero calls $0.31, MP1 folds

Turn: ($0.92) 5 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.97, Hero raises to $1.91 all in, MP2 calls $0.94

River: ($4.74) T of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)

On the Flop I predicted if I hit the flush I could get atleast 1 more X villain's size bet.. which I assume he will bet again on turn or I fire out half pot on river..
So my question is:
Is this a profitable play over the long haul?
Tue Jan 14, 2014, 07:26 AM
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Opening from UTG+2 is quite loose, especially full ring.
If you get raised by MP+2, I believe you should fold most of the times also because you are not closing the action. Luckily MP+1 flatcalls and you see a cheap flop with a hand that plays nice in a 3handed pot.

On the flop you have to call a pot-bet with an "oke" flushdraw and one player left to act. Even if you consider implied odds, and see some Q's and J's as outs, you have not enough odds to call, imo, mainly because you are not closing the action.
A donkbet on the flop would have been a better idea imo, you might pick up the pot right there, You build a pot for when you hit your flush and you give yourself better odds to call further bets if any.

OTT you hit the best card in the deck giving all A's a straight and you get it in good.

just my 2cents
Tue Jan 14, 2014, 08:56 AM
mr mendes 20's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 364
I am not a regular on 2nl, but QJs from ep to me is a fold pf. It will put you in bad spots: calling the villain's 3 bet is bad imo. I know a hand like that seems tempting to try and make the flush, but mostly it will only give you second pair or top pair with bad kicker against the range of a pf re-raiser. It's a fold. But since you saw the flop anyway and flopped a flush draw, I think you should take the initiative and bet to build up. You got lucky but this play does not seem profitable in the long run.

Time Vault Champion 2013
Tue Jan 14, 2014, 09:07 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi deenugen,

I would agree with what the guys have already said. QJs is a fold for me UTG+2. KQs and AJo is probably the lowest I would go. Also, I would just stick with a standard 3x opening size. And you can't actually win a big pot either by calling the 3bet because the effective stack is your 2.31$ so them having more does not count. So with ~100bs calling a 3bet OOP from these spots with a marginal hand like QJs is probably not going to be profitable on the long run to answer your question.
Wed Jan 15, 2014, 07:14 AM
deenugen's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 5
Thank you everyone for the inputs, they are all valuable.
It has open up to me that I am clearly gambling in these spots and I need to tighten up my opening range once again

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