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8.8$ [500 Cap] - KQ in CO nearing bubble

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8.8$ [500 Cap] - KQ in CO nearing bubble - Tue Jan 14, 2014, 08:46 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi PSO-ers, what do you think of this spot?

We are sitting with 24bbs in this 500 cap 8.8$ MTT; 54 places get paid with 67 left. We are in 38th place.

Both BTN and SB have a re-shipping stack so my intention was to raise and call a shove. BTN however seems to be more recreational playing 45/14 and the SB TAG 13/10. Anything wrong with re-shoving?

 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 09:46 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Just minraise at this stack depth.

Fold once shoved on imo.
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 02:29 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I like minraise-folding too, especially since you say the SB is a TAG. KQ does pretty terribly against a tight payer's shoving range (You've only got 46% equity vs a 20% range, and less than 40% vs the top 10%). The pot odds might seem tempting, but I think it's probably quite a big ICM mistake to call off a roughly chipEV-neutral race when you can fold your way to the money. If you lose this, you'll be in the danger zone as the bubble approaches. Winning adds a decent chunk to your stack, but "the chips you win are worth less than chips you lose", so it's not necessarily a great gamble.
Stealing blinds as the bubble gets near is obviously great, but you don't have to put half your stack on the line, when you can cruise to the money.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:32 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 04:43 PM
(#4)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Hi there GeoVARTA, again.. these are great tournys

If SB, is a reg, I would actually be inclined to call wider here, even with KQ. It's a perfect spot for SB to be squeezing here quite wide, especially if he has been folding the last few rounds because he is quite short, so it may seem he is jamming with his upper range.

If you have a stat which shows how much the btn villain is calling HU on the BTN when it comes around to him, would influence more to reshove over SB's jam, also.

I guess it all depends on history and reads you have moreso with the SB, compared with BTN.

Never thinking of folding my way to the money here, but Arty does make a point of stealing blinds... and is totally valid... but consider you are facing the same villains, and most likely will be under the same conditions as this hand, likely with a lesser holding... when you're on the btn again.

You want to be stealing with lesser holdings uncontested, and raising value hands. I guess there is an angle about being exploitable as a bigger stack in the eyes of the SB if he is a reg, if you fold to his jam... with only maybe 2 orbits before the bubble bursts here... you wont be picking up the blinds in this case.

just my .02
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 05:07 PM
(#5)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi GeoVarta

I somewhat agree with both Arty and Marc Rae's comments. Ultimately I think that reshoving is ok but only against competent players that you KNOW are capable of squeezing with a wide range, experienced villains may be aware that the button is playing loose which will make it all the tempting for them to squeeze wide. If however villain is tight I would make a reluctant fold but a fold none the less.

If we believe that villain is capable of squeezing wide but we have no evidence of it, then I would elect to fold but only because of the bubble. I rarely take bubble spots into account but as we're so close to it I think folding is best because at least if we fold we're guaranteed to have a half playable stack size, we have options, we can attempt to steal the blinds and we can look for good reshoving spots which of course gives us more time to relax (and make the money) and not be in shove/fold mode if our QK is no good.

Cheers, Chris.





P.s. Min raising at this stage of the tournament is fine or if you really hate the min-raise then why not make it 2.1 - 2..
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 07:29 AM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
So regardless of the BTN calling, you would elect to fold to the shove against 13/10 over small sample?
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 08:45 AM
(#7)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
So regardless of the BTN calling, you would elect to fold to the shove against 13/10 over small sample?
his vpip and pfr as less important here than his 3bet and steal/resteal %s (this would be a resteal by him since your open is effectively a steal) and squeeze %s too if you have that


i agree that you can open minraise here but you should already have a plan in your head about whether you are calling/reshoving the shortstack if he shoves


in this exact hand i would be inclined to reship if i thought the villain was capable of making a move, and yes marc rae is correct that an observant player will notice the dead money calling on the button and see this as a spot to shove light

minraise-call vs those looser or more creative guys
minraise-fold vs nits/abc players
minraise-pwn postflop vs the button station if the blinds fold

Last edited by ouchbadbeat; Wed Jan 15, 2014 at 08:48 AM..
 

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