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10Nl 6-max Zoom QJo BvsB

10Nl 6-max Zoom QJo BvsB - Tue Jan 14, 2014, 08:49 AM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is playing 18/14/5 over 288 hands.
I'm not sure if the stats are enough fore these stats but I'll post these here:
WTSD% 17% (29 hands)
W$SD% 60% (5 hands)

What you think of my line here ?
I folded the river since a lot of hands that makes sense beats me, TT,KJ,AJ,TJ.

Should I have folded the hand before ? I mean his check raise on the missed c-bet was strange to me.

Tue Jan 14, 2014, 09:45 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Not folding river with the near top of our range. He could be getting tricky with an OP.
Tue Jan 14, 2014, 06:21 PM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
The villain seems like a prototypical TAG, tight preflop and aggressive postflop which is why he doesn't get to showdown that much. It would be interesting to see how often he steals from the SB.

Therefore I think he is NEVER taking this line with a bluff. It's a question of what he considers to be his value range and what hands he might steal from the SB with.

Your pot odds are 2.57:1 meaning you need to be ahead 28% of the time to break even.

I think most half decent villains will play this way with TT, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, which you are obviously crushed against (you will chop the pot 8.8%). However just including a couple of hand combinations that you beat raises your equity significantly. Include J9 and you win 19% and chop 7%. Add just one overpair and your equity jumps to 37% win and 5.6% chop, which easily gives you the correct pot odds to call.

So this situation boils down to whether you think your opponent could play an overpair like this. I just don't think that this villain type is going to check/raise a pretty wet board with AA and run the risk of having the flop checked through and face a scary turn. I think he'd CBet all his overpairs on this flop texture. Therefore I think the fold is the correct decision. If you had KJ against villain's non-overpair range, a call would be almost break even (23.5% win and 8.8% chop).

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