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NL5 Straith faising suspiciuos River Donk

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NL5 Straith faising suspiciuos River Donk - Tue Jan 14, 2014, 10:10 AM
(#1)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74

Vilain unkwon What besides Full House he could donk ?
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 10:12 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Classic sigh call on the river.
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 02:16 PM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi beatmaker!

Since the pot is limped pf, the sb range is going to be quite wide. I also see he has a 50bb starting stack which usually indicates a weaker player.

Now, the sb just completed preflop, then leads out on the low flop. This looks most like a value bet with a marginal hand. He seems to either have an non-premium overpair or caught a piece of the flop. The A on the turn completes your straight and the villain leads out again. This seems to remove the overpairs from his range meaning he caught a piece of the flop. You are beating or splitting against all hands but 56. Your raise is a bit heavy. I normally 2bet about 2. to 2-5x the original raise. You made it more than 3x. This risks getting value owned.

The river isn't great since all the sets just got a full house. However, the vilain moves all in for a bit more than the pot. You need to win the hand about a third of the time for calling to be profitable. If we assume the villain has been betting for value since the flop, what hands could he have? Sets on the flop are now a boat beating us. We are splitting 5x hands except for 56 which is beating us and A2, A3 and A4 also improved to beat us on the river. The only thing we seem to be beating is garbage from a weak player. I would like to call here, but I don't think we are winning or splitting often enough to make this profitable. imo folding to the river would be best.

Be sure to put a note on the villain in spots like this when you get to see his cards at showdown.

Roland GTX
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 05:04 PM
(#4)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Given that fish will donk with over cards including Ax and mostly check with set, and further trips on the river must be like a heaven to him, I don’t see how I could fold this. But then again I call big bets too easily.
 
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Tue Jan 14, 2014, 05:32 PM
(#5)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi braveslice

If Im correct that this is a weak passive player, when he limps pf then starts betting every street. I think it most likely that he connected with the flop which are beating us. If he was a loose aggressive I would be more willing to call, he would more often be raising his Ax hands pre, barreling the flop, catching an A on the turn and thinking wow I got trips on the river like you say.

It boils down to our read on the villain. Here we are readless. So Im just going on what I see.
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 04:36 AM
(#6)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Roland, fair enough.

Though, we only need to think 1 out of 3 he is not a weak passive to make the call right, but as you said there is no reason to think otherwise except that he bets somewhat normal size OTT when the 4 cards to str are hitting the board. But I’m not sure that qualifies to 30% sureness.
 
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Wed Jan 15, 2014, 04:58 AM
(#7)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Yeah, you may be right braveslice. I'm not sure either. Nonetheless, if I were playing the hand I would fold. There are so many clearly good spots to get my chips in the middle at 2NL, I tend to err on the careful side when things get murky. Since the villain is an unknown, I'm not going to risk paying him off.
 

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