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PCA2013 Mike 74c pre AI good push while 100k$ and title on the line?

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PCA2013 Mike 74c pre AI good push while 100k$ and title on the line? - Thu Jan 16, 2014, 06:42 PM
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aspok123's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 883
I'm not sure whether this Mike push with 74c in PCA2014 FT HU was good?
Dominik had as I remember huge chip lead (25M I guess), but how Mike figured out that he will not be called with close to any 2 cards and pushed 5M holding this 74c there on the BB?



I have to check back and see how many blinds he had to compare with Nash HU push table, but it is also interesting what ICM says in this spot, while additional $100k was on the line for the 1st finisher?
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Last edited by aspok123; Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:46 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 16, 2014, 10:20 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,650
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Hey aspok,

I didn't see the hand, but would be happy to share my thoughts if you can provide the details of the hand. All I see here is a picture. Stuff that would be helpful to see would be a pokernews type report of the hand details (they will probably include stack sizes) and/or a video of the hand (video segment with time of the hand indicated would be great, so I can watch play leading up to this hand). If what you can find is limited, the video is the best as HU play will include a lot of history dynamic that may be useful to see leading up to this hand.

Without more info, I can't really feel comfortable commenting from an informed point of view.


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Thu Jan 16, 2014, 10:39 PM
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Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
yeh i saw this.. my thoughts on this were:

1. the pot, a few hands prior where MM lost (70ish% of his stack?)... during the brief rail with his mates post-hand, he said he was ******** tired
2. the last couple hours or so, MM had some sort of cold.. you could sort of tell it was bothering him a little.
3.it was a 15+hr FT
4.Panka's physical image looked fresh even up to the last hand.
 
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Fri Jan 17, 2014, 05:32 AM
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aspok123's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 883
Hi Dave,
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I didn't see the hand, but would be happy to share my thoughts if you can provide the details of the hand.
This is the last hand of PCA2014 ME and video is there http://pokerstars.tv/live below "PCA 2014 Main Event, Final Table, Part 2" http://www.pokerstars.tv/live/#3049504380001 this hand is at: 52:00 minute, but starting from 50:00 there are two hands before-then this monster hand 74c comes and A2o gives Panka championship on the river

Panka raised the D/SB to 500k and pot was 800k, then Mike shove his stack 5.4M with 74c on BB .
Dominik had 25.1M and quickly calls (asked only to count Mike stack to see how he will behave I guess) with his A2o and wins this last showdown.

I will try translate it into hand replayer.

Only unsure what blind level and how big ante but it could be possible to estimate I think.

BTW: Great hand for TV, while on flop Dominik hits his 2, on turn Mike his 7, but forget about double up while Panka improves to 2 pair with Ace on the river

Last edited by aspok123; Fri Jan 17, 2014 at 05:57 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 17, 2014, 05:55 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,503
Mike had about 20bb, Panka had about 110bb, after a series of losses for Mike. Haxton said "Mike is hurting now".

They'd played over 260 hands on the FT including 70 hands HU and Mike had admitted he was "really effing tired".
Panka minraised to 500 on the button. Mike shipped 5,390,000, knowing that Panka had folded a couple of buttons previously.

It's not a great shove, but it was quite explainable given the epic nature of the battle, and that the players had already locked up a million dollars with a deal 3-handed.

Mike was happy with his play and the result and I can't argue with Timex.


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Fri Jan 17, 2014, 11:55 AM
(#6)
aspok123's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 883
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
It's not a great shove, but it was quite explainable given the epic nature of the battle
So, while it was about 20bb, Will Tipton's "Expert Heads Up No Limit Hold'Em" 74s is ranked below 13.9bb, so it confirms it was not too good shove in this sense.
However, A2o calling is ranked at about 15.8bb, so this hand was quite strong to call 20bb ?

We should use of course effective stack sizes in those Push-or-Fold Nash Equilibrium solution for two player No Limit Hold'em or maybe missed something, while spend many hours yesterday... watching replay of this PCA ME 2014 FT

It is time to see what ICM says about this hand while still it was $100k payout jump ITM
 
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Fri Jan 17, 2014, 12:18 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,503
74s would work as an open shove for 14bb, based on the Nash charts, but Mike's play wasn't an open-shove for 14bb or less. It was a 3-bet jam for about 20bb. This should mean he has a lot of fold equity, due to the strength he's showing. That said, once Panka has invested chips with a raise in the small blind, he's priced in to call a shove with more hands than could call an open shove if the positions were reversed. A2 is close to the bottom of his calling range, but I think it just about qualifies.
I really think the dynamics of the game were most important here. I'm sure Mike more or less knows the Nash ranges off by heart, but he probably didn't know exactly how many blinds he had for one thing, and just wanted to gamble for another.

ICM is not a factor heads up, btw, since chipEV is precisely the same as tourneyEV once there are no other players that can benefit from your "mistakes". (The loser of a flip heads up doesn't have his equity divided between several remaining players that folded, since there can't be anyone that folded!)


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Fri Jan 17, 2014, 02:35 PM
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joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,299
The hand details are here as well, in written format:

http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/tourna...main-event-26/
 
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Sat Jan 18, 2014, 04:32 AM
(#9)
aspok123's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 883
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
This should mean he has a lot of fold equity, due to the strength he's showing. That said, once Panka has invested chips with a raise in the small blind, he's priced in to call a shove with more hands than could call an open shove if the positions were reversed.
I do not think he had too big fold equity while there were 30.5M chips in play and Mike shoved 5.3M to win 0.8M, but looked not comfortable during this chip count, so Panka could have some additional read.
Mike does not looked strong at the end of this HU match, so if Panka calls this shove and looses he still has about 2:1 chip lead and send Mike signal that he... can play that match forever

Yeah, made some ICM calculations and derived solutions for 1 to 3 place probabilities of winning and you are right in this HU with such payout we have:
$EV= $100k*(si/(sp+sm)) where si=[sp,sm] and sp is Panka stack size, sm is McDonald stack size.

Probability of winning by player (i) is pi=si/(sp+sm) .

Forgot about it that in HU in this case it is such easy calculation while used ICM calculators so far

However, I'd like to be at least on this better side of coin flip assuming even random Panka range if shoving with such small stack relative to his big chip lead.
I do not think 74c is on this better side vs random range in HU

Last edited by aspok123; Sat Jan 18, 2014 at 04:39 AM..
 
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Sat Jan 18, 2014, 08:29 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,650
(Head Trainer)
Hey all,

I think it's a bit loose, but not terrible. Open shoving 20bb's I wouldn't like, but shoving over a raise is fine. I sort of agree with Ike in the broadcast: "If he thinks Panka is close to 100% to open the button, then this is a pretty good shove. We've seen Panka fold the button since they got shallow though, right? Given that I think we can just call... there's no reason not to call and just take a flop".

I agree with Ike on both points, but don't think calling in this dynamic is ideal for Mike personally... he's tired, frustrated, and Panka's been holding over on him basically. He doesn't really have enough chips to take too many flops OOP anymore and play post flop poker, and given how it's been going and his fatigue (and maybe feeling a bit beaten up on at this point) I don't mind the high variance line leveraging fold equity over the open raise and if you get called, you rate to have 35% at least to get lucky and double.


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