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Good spot to check river?

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Good spot to check river? - Sun Jan 19, 2014, 10:53 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


So do you think this is a good spot to check river, i thought he can bet Ax of diamonds AQ and maybe any draws he might want to bluff.

Here i maybe lost a tiny value bet with his slow played KK but i dont think we will see him show up with KK alot to just jam the river, i think if i do jam the river i will get a fold quite often.
 
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Sun Jan 19, 2014, 07:22 PM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Let's think about what hands villain might call preflop and two streets from the BTN with. There are A-high flush draws, other flush draws, JT, TT-JJ, AQ/KQ. He might also have sets/two pairs if he's slowplay happy but I think he's more likely to raise these because of the wet board.

It then comes down to any reads you have on the villain what he will do with these holdings.

Bad Calling Stations may call a shove with all their one-pair hands regardless of the A turning up. They'll fold to the shove and never bluff when checked to with their missed draws.

Solid regs will probably call a shove with A-high flush draws, AQ and slowplayed sets and fold everything else. If checked to, they might shove their busted draws. I think they might also turn TT/JJ into a bluff intending to fold out KQ/QJ.

Assuming that villain is unknown, I doubt the average 5NL reg will be pulling off huge river bluffs and they'll likely stay passive and check back hands even as strong as AQ.

Therefore I think just shoving is the right play to extract value from worse made hands, particularly Ax. This takes advantage of the Wasted Pair Theorem
 
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Sun Jan 19, 2014, 08:57 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
I think given that this is 5 cent game its a good spot for a check, but its going to depend on your villain. I would tend toward betting unless i had a read that the villian will bet / bluff if i show weakness.


Grade b


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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 03:54 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
You're at the top of your range, so you're never folding, so you just need to work out if villain will bluff with missed diamonds, or value-bet with hands like AQ/KQ, Axdd or A9. At these stakes, I don't expect villains to do my betting for me, so I'd stick the chips in myself and let him make a calling mistake.


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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 09:07 AM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Good point i spose i shouldn't be taking these lines vs passive players.
 

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