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Villain flop raising stat

Villain flop raising stat - Sun Jan 19, 2014, 01:04 PM
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

I was wondering what stats and there values would best indicate that a villain raises the flop often and is likely to be weak? (either with possible weak pairs, or bluffing too often)

The problem that I currently have, and it may not be that important at 2nl, but something I would like to improve on, is that if a villain raises the flop I always pretty much fold unless I have a set or better. I will also usually call a raise that give me the right Odds for my drawing hands.

As an example

A maniac raising the flop is a lot different to a nit or a loose passive raising the flop.

What stats are the most useful and what values would best indicate this.

High aggression factor say 6 of a loose player, but what about the flop raise stat, etc?

Cheers, thanks for your help,

Matt (Pullin)

Last edited by pullin1988; Sun Jan 19, 2014 at 01:07 PM..
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 03:24 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Firstly, you need a pretty large sample size for any post-flop stats to be trustworthy.

That said, in nanostakes games where villains are quite passive in general and their raises are purely for value, if someone's flop raise is 7% of lower, they pretty much always have two pairs or better. If it's around 10%, they probably raise strong draws too. If it's up at 15% or more, they're also raising with top pair, or even total air. These numbers roughly correlate with the likelihood of flopping the holdings described.
e.g. You flop a set with a pocket pair less than 12% of the time, but you won't necessarily raise every single time. With an un-paired hand (e.g. KQ), you only make top pair 30% of the time, so raising the flop more often than about 15% means there's probably some pretty thin raising or bluffing going on.

While I have "flop raise" on my HUD, I think it's even more useful to know what the player is raising with, which is why notes based on showdowns are so handy.
A note like "check-raises w/ set on dry board" can help you get away from an overpair. If your note instead says "Raises top pair no kicker", then you can happily stack off with your overpair, since you know the villain isn't just raising monsters.

Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:30 AM..
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 06:17 PM
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers arty

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