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Tough spot with bottom set on the turn on a freeroll

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Tough spot with bottom set on the turn on a freeroll - Sun Jan 19, 2014, 03:34 PM
(#1)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Villain typical TAG.
It's hard to put villain on JQ unless they have JQ of spades or diamonds but I can't think of another hand that makes sense.
I obviously rule out KK AA, since villain is going to be 3betting a huge % of the times and also TT is rather unlikely, since I expect a 3bet with it as well.
Maybe they have AT and KT sometimes, but I am not so sure.
Should I find a fold on that turn?

Last edited by GamblingProp; Sun Jan 19, 2014 at 03:40 PM..
 
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Sun Jan 19, 2014, 04:17 PM
(#2)
MyNumber7's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 36
Hello, GamblingProp!

At this spot you still have a huge 43BB stack. As I see you opp has 3 times more than you. Here in possition I would 3bet, but also like your 2.5BB bet here. If I get reraise I would fold.

As played, villain calls and flop comes 3AK with two clubs. Its nice to have a set but on this type of board full of draws we can't slowplay it. After villain's check I would bet 1/2 the pot here so my opp will make a mistake by calling this bet. Villain calls me bet and I see 10 on the turn which is a little bit scary. He checks. I bet here 1/2 pot once again. Villain 3bets my bet which indicates strenght. He check-raises me. This indicates I am behind. Fold. This board is too dangerous to continue with a set.

Good luck,
MyNumber7
 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 03:39 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I bet bigger on flop and turn and I'm stacking on the turn. is the only realistic combo that has you beat, and you've got outs if villain shows up with that. Most of the time, he has two pairs or top pair with backdoor diamonds.


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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 04:23 AM
(#4)
MyNumber7's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
is the only realistic combo that has you beat, and you've got outs if villain shows up with that. Most of the time, he has two pairs or top pair with backdoor diamonds.
Dont forget that this is a freeroll and we dont know a lot about our opp. Maybe I am not right, but I cant see him not raise preflop with AK or A10(probably not). But check-raise on the turn with only flush draw? A10 or JQ only two possible hand IMO. Feel free to judge me
 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 04:35 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
If we assume that villain always 3-bets pre with AK, then there are still 25 combos of ATs/ATo/KTs/KTo/A3s that made two pairs. If he also makes this play with Axdd, that's 9 more combos. There are only 16 combos of QJ, even if we include the 12 offsuit versions.
So just in terms of combos, there are 25 two pair combos, and 16 straights. Factor in some semi-bluffs (pair+draw) and our set is well ahead, and still has 10 outs when behind.
Even if villain's range is solely AT and QJ, we have 47% equity. The dead money in the pot makes this a profitable stack off.


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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 06:29 AM
(#6)
MyNumber7's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 36
Ok, thats ok, but IMO this board is too dangerous to continue with 333. Hero bets 140, villains raises to 540. Hero has 10 outs and he needs to call 400 to 975 pot which makes this call unprofitable. And shoving here puts hero at risk. Ofcourse here are few lines of play but I dont like check-raise on the turn. I will wait for a HA analysis to see where I am wrong
 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 11:26 AM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,798
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Hi GamblingProp!

With 33 preflop on the button, when it folds to me, I'm going to make a standard raise to 3BB+1BB for each limper (90 chips). I don't want to raise to less than this because I don't want to be pricing in marginal overcards to try to outdraw me.

I flop bottom set on a very wet board. When the opp checks to me, I'm once again going to make a standard value bet and since there is only one opp, I'll bet 1/2 pot (78 chips). With this wet of a board and as many draws that are available, I don't want to bet less than this and possibly give the opp the correct odds to try to outdraw me. If the opp is known to defend with suited broadway cards, then I can very easily up this bet to 2/3 pot, as that's what I need to bet to price out a combination draw here.

The turn completes a straight, but the opp checks again. I'm once again going to make a standard value bet of 1/2 pot (148). The opp now check/raises me and with a set and only one combination of cards beating me, I'm absolutely getting it in with a 3-bet shove. Even if the opp has QJ, I still have 10 outs to improve on the river. Also, QJ is only a very small part of the opp's range as with them being a TAG, there are plenty of 2 pair combinations that I'm ahead of in their range.

The keys here are the preflop and flop bets, as they are both too small and won't price out many of the combinations that I can be up against. If the opp wants to call standard bets with a gutshot draw, so be it. They will win a given % of the time and lose chips on average to me every single time. If I bet too small and give them the odds, then it's my own fault when I lose.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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