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Turn decision with TPTK (25c 45-man SNG)

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Turn decision with TPTK (25c 45-man SNG) - Mon Jan 20, 2014, 06:13 AM
(#1)
Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31


Villain 1: 46/0/0 (13 hands)
Villain 6: 38/23/28.6 (13 hands)

Pre-flop: Standard open-raise (4BB+1BB per limp), BUT and limper call.

Flop: QT4-rainbow. I elected to c-bet ~90% for value and to protect against draws. Due to the large-pot relative to stacks, I think a smaller c-bet would have been sufficient, e.g. 1/2 pot would have made it unprofitable for either villain to call with an OESD. Or should we be c-betting larger to leave a pot-sized bet behind if one opponent calls?

Turn: brings an off-suit 9. Not a lot has changed; KJ and J8 got there (although it's hard to believe he called with the latter), T9/Q9 have turned two-pair and JT/QT are now open-ended. We are still ahead of many Qx/Tx and JJ he would've called our flop-bet with.

The thing is we have just over a pot-sized bet behind and any sort of bet will leave us pot-committed. But can we expect to get called by many worse holdings if we shove? I assume his calling range would look something like KQ+, pair+OESD (QJ/JT), JJ, two-pairs (QT/T9), straights (KJ), and we have just 40% equity against that range.

My two main Q's are: how big should we betting on the flop? As played, should we shove the turn?

Cheers,
Ibie

Last edited by Ibie_Broke; Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 06:15 AM.. Reason: Typo
 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 11:40 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Ibie_Broke!

With AQ and a limper in front of me, I'm going to make a standard raise to 3BB+1BB for each limper (80 chips).

I flop TPTK on a board with many straight draws. When it checks to me with 2 opps, I'm going to make a standard value bet. Bets postflop need to be sized based on the size of the pot, number of opps and board texture. With 2 opps in the hand, a standard bet is 2/3 pot, so I will bet 220. I cannot bet less than 220 or I can possibly be giving the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me. When I think I have the best hand, I always want to make the opp make a -EV call, one where I expect to gain chips from them.
1/2 pot does NOT price out an OESD, 1/2 only prices it out against one opp, not two.

The turn 9 completes two straights and I'm now faced with a decision. From the range you listed, we have about 40% equity and I totally agree that any bet here pot-commits me, as I'll need to bet 1/2 pot since I'm now up against one opp. The key here is to look at the pot odds if I shove and get called. I need to put 1050 into a pot that will be 3010 (34.9%). Even if the opp calls everytime (which they won't as they'll fold a given % of the time), my hand equity is higher than my pot equity, which makes this a +EV play. The EV number will also go up due to the times when the opp will fold. Due to this, I'm absolutely shoving the turn.

Here is a LINK to a blog that I wrote on pricing opps out postflop. It will give you the sizes that are needed for the different situations that you can run into.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 01:33 PM
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Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31
Thanks John, that clears things up nicely. I'll try to commit the numbers in your blog post to memory so I don't have to do the no. crunching during hands.

Regarding the pre-flop OR, I tend to adjust sizing according to the blind level, opening to 4BB, 3BB, 2.5BB in 10/20, 15/30 and 25/50, respectively. Is this okay or do you think 4BB is excessive?
 
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Mon Jan 20, 2014, 01:48 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,786
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Preflop, I start at 3BB, then lower to 2.5BB at 100/200, then lower to 2.2BB at 1k/2k.

What I have set up, which keeps me from doing the number crunching is that I have my bet buttons set at 50%, 66%, 75% and pot. One of those four will always be what's needed to price the opps out, so it's just one button for me and no number crunching (now if they could only have these four buttons in a live game.. lol).

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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