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2nl KK vs nit

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2nl KK vs nit - Tue Jan 21, 2014, 02:32 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

14/10 3b 1.5 wtsd 47
184 hands
Should I take my chances calling the small turn bet or is it too obvious that he has at least a set?
 
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Tue Jan 21, 2014, 03:33 AM
(#2)
Guido-bomb's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 545
Hi!!!
I think you should always fold that turn, in my opinion he at least has a J after the flop raise.
 
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Tue Jan 21, 2014, 04:36 AM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I don't think a Jx is in the range of a nit here, unless it's JJ. I'm thinking QQ, 88 or AA (or KK).
He raises your cbet OTF with two players behind to act. That's a really strong move.
Shoving the flop after his bet would have been an option but I'm not sure if you are good here often enough. Only QQ and AJ might pay you off and I don't believe a nit has AJ here.

OTT, KK is almost always beat here, so I would fold.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Tue Jan 21, 2014 at 05:20 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 21, 2014, 05:08 AM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Praydk,

It's interesting to think what sort of hands would raise this flop. I think there would be two categories of hands in this case. Either Sets, or draws.
Sets make complete sense JJ, 88, 55 can all be in their preflop calling range vs UTG open
There are not enough if any two pairs in their range. I don't expect a 14/10 to call with J8 forexample

The second category of hands are draws and in this case heart draws; Also, highly doubt them to call with like 76 or T9 and raise flop with the straight draw on a flop that has two hearts. But here's the interesting part: Given we see the Jack of hearts on the flop and we have the King of hearts, then the only NFD holding they can raise with is going to be AhQh! Since nothing less than AJs is probably going to call us preflop. Maybe AhTh? but that is it.

So there's actually more combinations of sets than draws; 9 combos of sets, 2 combos of NFD
If they're bad they might be raising with AJ or QQ (though if they raise with QQ here then they might 3bet it preflop)

The Jack on the turn should shut us down when they bet here so folding turn should be right imo.
 
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Tue Jan 21, 2014, 03:07 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
A guy playing 14/10 at 6-max that just calls pre has a set here pretty often. As George pointed out, we block AKhh, so there's basically only 1 flush draw (AQhh) in this guy's range. If he had the nut flush draw, it would be a better play to just call anyway to keep the pot multiway to maximise his implied odds. The flop raise basically has "I haz set" written all over it, so folding the flop is best.


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