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$1.10 1000-Cap - Pocket Kings multiway vs 100bb flop shove

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$1.10 1000-Cap - Pocket Kings multiway vs 100bb flop shove - Sat Jan 25, 2014, 03:15 AM
(#1)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
1000-Cap MTT. A few hours in.



Vital information:
-Money bubble had burst. We were down to about 80 players. My chipstack was above average, but not top 10.
-Villain 1 was either the tourney chipleader or top 3 at the time.
-Every villain involved I had labeled as bad players. Specifics:
--*Villain 9 limped out of position a lot. Earlier, when I had kings about 2 hours previous, he limped with 7-10s, called my raise and flopped the nut straight.
--*Villain 1 I played one hand against, enough to let me know how bad he was. He limped to open in the small blind, I checked my option. Flop was 5-3-2. He bet the pot. I raised a little more than 2.3x. He called and check-folded the 5 on the turn, showing me a 2.

Seeing Villain 1 overshove 10x the pot with 100bb in his stack instantly made me realize his hand was marginal at best. My thoughts at the time were either:
a) A medium-to-strong draw
b) An small/medium pair that whiffed.
And later analysis does suggest another possible hand,
c) 10-x
I didn't take sets into account because the type of player who shoves everything into the middle when they hit big like that isn't nearly as common as 9 years ago.

HOWEVER, that being said, and seeing that I still had 47bb if I gave up (but almost certainly a top 5 stack if I won), was there any way I could have gotten away from such an obvious semi-bluff/overshove?
 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 03:58 AM
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Haribohogger's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 1
If playing higher stakes would have called hoping to see villian with QQ or worse whilst hoping not to see a cooler AA..Think he tried to blow you off the pot with a strong semi bluff which is dodgy at high/mid/low stakes but fairly common at $1.10.
 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 01:06 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi Christxof!

Preflop with KK, with 3 limpers, I'm going to make a standard raise to 2.2BB+1BB for each limper (5200) since I want to conceal the strength of my hand.

With a flop of three unders with a flush and straight draws, I now get a shove from the bigstack. The read info on this player that they're playing wide and bet flops with marginal hands or draws definitely makes my play here easier.... and I'm calling this shove every time here.

Here's why....

I think your ranging on the villain is very good here. I'm expecting this to be a draw, JJ, QQ or Tx just about everytime. However, I would put sets in their range too... but they're so small a part of their range, that they're basically negligible. I actually still see shoving sets in this spot all the time on a couple other sites that I play on (which make no sense because a competent player will never pay them off).
The other factor is that I'm already ITM. Now, my goal is to get to a top 3 stack, then win the tournament. I don't have a top 3 stack, so I'm looking to gain chips.

Needing to gain chips to get to a top 3 and being ahead of basically everything in their range (minus AA, T8 or a set and if they have one of these.. so be it), I'm getting my chips in good for a shot at a FT stack and a realistic chance to win the tourney.

Unlucky, but you IMO, you absolutely made the correct play.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 02:11 PM
(#4)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks, JWK. That's a very good analysis. My eventual conclusion was that in a cash game, this would 100% be the correct call, but I was unsure seeing as how it was a tournament and ICM might be taken into account. Thanks for letting me know it was a good call.

I did hear (and read in Harrington on Hold'em, which was a Christmas present for me this year) that a lot of weaker players would often overshove when they hit a set or bigger, but I thought those players had mostly died out by now (I sure haven't seen one, at least not that I remember). But if some are still doing that, then it's a good idea to take it into account. Thanks for letting me know.

I did check the hands in a calculator, and surprisingly pocket Kings were only about a 53% favourite in that spot. Villain 9 had actually folded and showed 9-7s, so taking that into account only raise my hand to about 55/56%. It's surprising how strong 12 outs + is against made hands.

The villain who busted me ended up taking 3rd place, I took 80th.

Also, one last question: in Harrington on Hold'em, Dan Harrington says that having a backdoor flush draw on the flop is approximately equivalent to 1.5 outs if all the money gets in on the flop. Is this true?
 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 03:04 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christxof View Post
Also, one last question: in Harrington on Hold'em, Dan Harrington says that having a backdoor flush draw on the flop is approximately equivalent to 1.5 outs if all the money gets in on the flop. Is this true?
That's true (key being that I see both cards) and actually it's the best point that I got from reading that book as I did not know this before reading it. I have all 3 book in this series and am actually starting to read the 3rd (workbook one) later today.

Being able to make plays like this with the KK is why bankroll management is so important. It's a huge +EV play and I need to be able to make it without worrying about the few pay levels I might miss out on for the % of times that I lose the hand. The majority of the cash in any tourney is in the top 3, so the way that I look at tourneys is to get ITM, then get to a top 3 stack, then to win it.

Making more plays like this especially on the other side of the bubble will lower my ITM % some, but for the times when I win the hand when I'm the favorite to do so, I will get many deeper runs and dramatically raise my overall ROI in this tourney type. This is something that I've worked on a ton since black Friday and it's helped my game and bottom line tremendously. For example, I'm cashing in about 5-8% less of them, but if I'm over doubling my profit from them.... I'm 100% fine with cashing in less of them, because my bankroll is going up.

With shoving sets and made hands like that, it's amazing how many bad players pay off the people that do it. One site I play on, I see it at least 5-6 times a tourney, which amazes me. A few of us call them value-shoves and the players that do it are very easy to spot and as soon as I have a note on them that they will do it, they may get someone to pay them off... it won't be me.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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