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True or False?

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True or False? - Sat Jan 25, 2014, 12:52 PM
(#1)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
You win more from your opponents' mistakes than your own good play.

And why.
 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 01:09 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
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100% true!!!!!

Especially bad players, will make so many bad mistakes, that I can win a boatload more $$ off their mistakes than I can by making a great play every once in a while. The bad mistakes by bad players happen much more frequently.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 03:48 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
I think it's true.

If you play a "perfect" game theory optimal style, you cannot be exploited. You wouldn't lose (except through bad luck), but you would win every time an opponent did not play "perfectly", i.e. every time he made a mistake.

This is why players of nosebleed stakes have winrates that are extremely low (in bb/100 terms). Their opponents are not making many mistakes, so edges are remarkably small. It's also why some players refuse to play HU against others. If they know their opponent doesn't make many mistakes, there's no money to be made from them.
Down at the nanostakes, villains make plentiful mistakes, which means you can have a very high winrate just by adopting a straightforward style.


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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 05:31 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
You win more from your opponents' mistakes than your own good play.

And why.
I have to say I don't know if it is true. Though I have heard it said many times.

My main reason for being less sure than JWK & Arty is I don't know how you can measure this, or separate the two factors.

If I win money at poker against a pool of opponents who are making regular mistakes, I win partly because I am playing good poker and partly because they are making mistakes.

If I win money at poker against a pool of players who rarely make mistakes, I win mainly because of my good play.

So a decent proportion of the winnings in scenario one are down to my good play, and almost all in the second scenario. Which leads me to think overall that the good play is the main factor.

What I do think is true is that when I play against the pool of players who make lots of mistakes, I should win more than I do against the pool who are rarely making mistakes.

And I also believe that I lose more often from my own mistakes than from other players good play.

I still don't think it is a measurable figure though - so essentially a moot point.

I certainly can't find the function on my tracker software that breaks down 'money won from good play v money won from opponent's mistakes'.

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 10:57 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
It's a numbers game. Unless we're playing HU there are more of them than us, so they have more opportunities as a group then we do by ourselves.

But to your point, when we allow/encourage them to make a mistake we just made a good play.
 
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Sat Jan 25, 2014, 11:27 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Sometimes good players are just inexperienced ... I guess mistakes are still mistakes, no matter the cause - but some players get better over time ...

And there's a lot of good regs in the 10nl zoom pool - not a lot of $ to be made off of them

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 12:19 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 12:21 AM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Although ... loss minimization seems to be a big, big part of my game too though - and maybe we lose less when we make fewer mistakes? Like that's all on us, and the quality of our play?

Maybe that's why loss minimization always seems like so much more of a challenge - because we don't have the cards or the mistakes of other people to help us out as much? So we need to have better hand reading, more restraint ... more practice?


Guess I shouldn't be feeling so bad that my game feels so much more clumsy during downswings, if stuff is just more complicated ... never thought if it that way before ...
 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 07:01 AM
(#8)
Pokermancer8's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 35
100% true that we lose more by making our mistakes.
Winning more by making less mistakes is obvious. It is so easy with medium hand to self-trap in making big pot eventually losing to a better made hand.

I noticed i lost so much more chips or cash in hands just by trying too hard with medium hands. One big loss and you are out of tournament or out of cash..

Its better to limp in the flop with strong hand and make others trap themself..
 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 12:12 PM
(#9)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Good players allow others to make mistakes.

It may be chasing a flush or a straight without the correct odds, or calling with a gut-shot when given the correct odds to do so.

Now is the money won because of the good play of the (overall) winner or the mistake of the (overall) loser in these cases I would suggest it is both, the skillful player getting his opponent to make the mistake.

By the end of 2014 I'd like to be the player giving others the chance to make these mistakes.


Grade b


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Tue Jan 28, 2014, 10:40 PM
(#10)
Stun Needle's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 9
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Its true for me but then I play only freerolls and play money and such because Canada's poker laws are getting really stupid about depositing.
 
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Wed Jan 29, 2014, 06:41 AM
(#11)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
I would go further. I would say that the ONLY way we make money is from opponents mistakes. And the only way we lose money is from our own mistakes. In the long term, that is.

In the short term we can also win or lose money due to variance (mistakes sometimes pay off, sometimes we just get dealt better hands etc). But these factors tend to balance out over time, leaving mistakes as our only reliable currency.

Apart from avoiding mistakes ourselves, all we can do is identify the mistakes our opponents are prone to making, and then giving them maximum opportunities to make those mistakes. Yes, luring opponents into making more mistakes is good play, but without the mistake being made there is no profit.

We can't profit from an opponent who doesn't make mistakes, however well we play.
 
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Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:26 AM
(#12)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by mytton View Post
I would go further. I would say that the ONLY way we make money is from opponents mistakes. And the only way we lose money is from our own mistakes. In the long term, that is.

In the short term we can also win or lose money due to variance (mistakes sometimes pay off, sometimes we just get dealt better hands etc). But these factors tend to balance out over time, leaving mistakes as our only reliable currency.

Apart from avoiding mistakes ourselves, all we can do is identify the mistakes our opponents are prone to making, and then giving them maximum opportunities to make those mistakes. Yes, luring opponents into making more mistakes is good play, but without the mistake being made there is no profit.

We can't profit from an opponent who doesn't make mistakes, however well we play.
That is a great answer.



Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Feb 01, 2014, 07:16 PM
(#13)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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The old hedgehog has to side with the idea one profits from the other player's mistake. It is pure logic. If the other player believes his hand plus the board is poor compared to what he believes you hold, he will fold. You cannot make any profit unless the other player mistakenly calls your hand with the second best. I think the best example of that is a board with three cards in a suit and a three-card connector showing. The smart player folds his straight to the player he believes is holding the flush. The fool pushes his straight in the belief you do not have the flush. Add a pair to the board and the fun goes up exponentially as now there is the full house possible.
 
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Thu Feb 06, 2014, 12:16 PM
(#14)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Successful poker players maximize wins while minimizing losses.

Maximizing wins = Maximizing opponent's mistakes.

Minimizing losses = Minimizing our mistakes.


Good decisions
 

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