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10NL 6-max JJ IP

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10NL 6-max JJ IP - Sun Jan 26, 2014, 07:30 AM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is unknown.

I'm having a hard time playing hands like this, especially on dry boards like that.

I folded the turn, but now it seems too weak for me. But would he keep betting with overcards anyway ? I'm not sure.



Cheers!
 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 10:07 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Tough spot fp. I think I would probably call the turn a decent percentage of the time, but its certainly not clear to me that this is the best play.

Unfortunately we have a dearth of information here. What's villain's 3b%? What's their barreling tendencies? How many tables are they playing?

A few basic reads:

- we are deep stacked in position, villain is betting small, these are factors that should incline us to call turn as they did for us to call preflop.
- villain three-bet to 0.80 out of the small blind deep-stacked. That looks pretty strong. Three-betting out of the small blind is the strongest spot from which we could face a three-bet in this hand. They also aren't stack size aware though, because this deep, they should be making it 10x, 11x, even 1 with their whole range. I would think 11x but there is no mathematical proof for this as the best size. All we know is 8x is suboptimal.

So this sizing tell inclines me to believe that QQ-AA constitutes a larger portion of their range than we otherwise would expect. We might be getting just too good a price to fold the turn, but it seems fine and reasonable from my perspective to do so.
 

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