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Overs and NFD early in 25c 45-man SNG

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Overs and NFD early in 25c 45-man SNG - Sun Jan 26, 2014, 04:12 PM
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Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31


Villain 7: 12/9/1.9 C-bet: 83 (156 hands)

Flop: I would expect the villain to c-bet this flop with the majority, if not all of his opening range. With two-over cards and the nut-flush draw, is this a good spot to consider raise-stacking off early on in a tournament?

Turn: The 80%-pot bet narrows the villain range to sets, over-pairs, Jx and maybe TT. Given the action, I didn't think we could count both over-cards as live outs a lot of the time. If we count both overs as 3 outs, that gives us around 24% equity, meaning the villain would have to fold 21% for a shove to be break-even. Having made a pot-committing bet, I doubt the villain would be willing to fold, so I think folding here is correct.

My two main questions are:
  • Should we be looking to play big draws aggressively early on?
  • Would you play differently on the turn?

Cheers,
Ibie

Last edited by Ibie_Broke; Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 04:19 PM..
 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 05:13 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi Ibie_Broke!

With AQs, when I get a standard raise in front of me, I'm going to call behind and see the flop.

I flop a flush draw with two overs and the key for me here has to be the villain's bet sizing. I need to call 250 into a pot that will be 875 (28.6%). I have 9 outs for the flush and possibly up to 6 more outs. If all of my outs are good, then I will have 15 outs and from the rule of 4 and 2, this is worth 30% equity to the turn, which makes this a call since my hand equity will be higher than my pot equity. HOWEVER, all of these outs may not be good. If the opp has QJ or AJ, then three of my outs are counterfeited, which will drop my hand equity to 24%... making it a fold.

In these tourneys, I don't want to be stacking off without a made hand early. There are so many fish in these, I will be able to find a spot where I'm in a +EV spot.
Since it's debatable whether all the outs are good or not though, I'm going to flat here and see if I can improve on the turn.

The turn is a blank for me and now the opp makes a pot-committing bet. If I play the hand, I'll have to put 1215 into a pot of 3305 (36.8%) as the opp should never fold here. Even if all of my outs are good, I only have 30% equity, so since the pot equity is much higher, I absolutely need to fold to this bet. I only want to shove if my hand equity is higher than the pot equity (meaning that I expect to gain chips). When the pot equity is higher, I expect to lose chips if I play the hand.

The keys here are that I will make a marginal call on the flop and when the turn misses and the opp makes a pot-committing bet, I need to fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jan 26, 2014, 05:43 PM
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Ibie_Broke's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 31
Thanks John, crystal clear as always .
 

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