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5NL Difficult TPTK

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5NL Difficult TPTK - Mon Jan 27, 2014, 10:56 AM
(#1)
Jameisus's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 45
I personally found this extremely difficult to fold.

My thinking was, he raises UTG, which should be strong, so I only call with AKo in position, as he has been fairly tight and I don't want to get 4bet.

When the flop comes and he checks, I feel I have the best hand and bet, which he calls. I really don't think he has a 7, but might have a flush draw or K.

The turn raise really throws me. I feel for value, he has a 7, K, or set of 4's. Possibly Aces. And could be semi-bluffing the flush draw.

When the river comes, I feel the only value hand I beat is a weaker King, which I don't think he has. Again, it's difficult for me to put him on a 7, so I really think this is a set of 4's, a flush, or perhaps AK too.

Should I be calling this, and if so, what factors should I be looking at? If I'm looking at pot odds right, he has to be bluffing / losing 33% of the time for me to break even?

 
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Mon Jan 27, 2014, 09:00 PM
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spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Top Pair Top Kicker is a strong hand especially on a relatively dry board texture, and you want to get value from it. The question is, how many streets of value should you try to get and what is the best way of getting that value?

As you rightly say, villains UTG opening range should be strong, so calling with AKo is the right thing to do. He then chooses not to CBet the flop, which is a strange decision as it is a great board texture to CBet on. He can easily represent a K and it's very unlikely you've got a piece of this so a CBet is going to be very +EV for him and get him a lot of folds.

What hands might he choose not to CBet? Maybe stuff like QQ-TT that are scared of the K. He might also check nut-type hands as a slowplay, e.g. KK, AA, AK. I think he'd CBet most of his air and flush draws.

Let's assume he's checking back QQ-TT. How many streets of value can we get from these hands? Probably two maximum.

What if he's got the nuts? Obviously we'd like to keep the pot as small as possible if he does have those sorts of holdings!

So I think checking back the flop might be best here, planning to call a turn and river bet, or bet these streets if he checks again. There are very few scare cards, you don't have to be too worried about the flush coming, there are only a handful of stuff like AsQs, AsJs that can plausibly have a flush draw here.

By checking back, you give him the chance to either hit an A for AQ, or let him bet QQ-TT at least once. If he does have a slowplayed nut hand like AA or 7x, by just calling two streets you aren't going to lose a big pot.

On the river I'd be inclined to fold - villain's certainly taken a strange line, He's polarised between having the nuts and complete air like AQ. At 5NL I doubt too many villains are pulling off these huge bluffs, although it's possible of course.
 

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