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C-betting overcards on missed board HU pot

C-betting overcards on missed board HU pot - Wed Jan 29, 2014, 11:21 AM
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
This specific situation is kinda tricky for me.

Here is the example :

Tried to calculate the EV of going to showdown vs capitalizing dead money in the pot.

It seems not putting money in the pot when there is no worse hands that call and no better that would fold is the most profitable option.

Anyways, I faced some opinions that value of taking pot right now is higher than trying to see a showdown and giving opponent chance to bluff us of the hand.

Would someone shed the light on this topic?

Last edited by morduk666; Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:25 AM..
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 01:05 PM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
Gosh, have *just* been working on my c-betting as well ... like the quality of my thought process, not just whether to bet or not sort of a deal. But I'm still in the process of taking notes on the 3-part series of Live Training vids, so all the info's still a bit of a mish-mash in my head ...

Continuation Betting Basics Part 1
Continuation Betting Basics Part 2

Continuation Betting Basics Continued Part 1
Continuation Betting Basics Continued Part 2

Continuation Betting Basics Revisited Part 1
Continuation Betting Basics Revisited Part 2

Couldn't resist jotting down some random thoughts in the meantime tho ... hopefully others'll chime in too

So, I guess step 1 is to try and put the villain on a range by asking what sort of hands in the bb the average person would tend to call an utg raise with, but not 3-bet? So maybe it's a lot of stuff like AQ, AJs, KQs, JTs, 67s, pocket pairs 22 and 44, but also 33/55-77, 99-JJ?

And then step 2 is to ask which of those hands are likely to fold to a c-bet? And there seem to be lots - lots of people will fold the overs and suited connectors, and even possibly the lower pocket pairs they were set-mining with perhaps? And even if people decide to peel one more, AK is actually beating all the overs, ahead of the suited connectors, and most of the pocket pairs can't take a lot of heat because your perceived range contains better ones like AA and KK?

And step 2a was maybe to consider the alternative of checking behind, and I guess it's better to keep the pressure on hands like 33-77, rather than give them the chance to put pressure on us by opening the door for them to bet the turn? And also, we don't want to give hands like JTs, or 76s (on the 884 board) the chance to outdraw us?

So step 3 is to try and think about what turns we want to double-barrel - would that be any over? So that's half the deck which would be good for us, and if called, AK still has equity to improve assuming the overs to come on the turn weren't already A or K?

Okay, that's all I got out of the video so far ... sorry if it's kind of a mish-mash of thought ... am still watching the vids

Hope to hear from others!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:11 PM..
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 05:03 PM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
Oh, there's that other thing too - that since you're in position, by c-betting the flop, if the villain check-calls the flop, and then checks the turn ... if the turn is like a 6, you get to check behind on the turn and still have a chance to improve on the river (or even semi-bluff on like a Q).

Like, by c-betting the flop, you get the chance to hit your AK on two more streets, but if you check behind and the villain bets out on the turn, you have to fold unimproved? And AK could have actually been ahead too and stuff ...

Still watching the vids, so guess the points are kind of coming out in bits and pieces as I go

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