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25nlzoom KK BTN vs CO 3bet pot gets donk on turn

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25nlzoom KK BTN vs CO 3bet pot gets donk on turn - Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:45 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi PSO

vs 29/23/AF2.4 53 hands 0% fold to 3bet so far

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($12.50)
BB ($25.91)
UTG ($38.66)
MP ($12.50)
CO ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.10, 2 folds, CO calls $1.35

Flop: ($4.55) 10, 9, 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.40, CO calls $2.40

Turn: ($9.35) J (2 players)
CO bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($18.35) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $8.75, Hero ....

Turn I think is always a call, river I am not sure, he is giving me a good price but don't know if he is ever betting worst, he seems more of a recreational so he could be doing this with QQ JQ maybe?
And in general boards with 9TJ seem to hit the 3bet calling range of kind of loose player like this.

Fold or call?
 
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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 01:25 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Fine calling here vs a non-fullstacked fishyreg.

River we only need to be right here like 20% of the time so just call and know it's profitable.
 
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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 01:36 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
For the price he is giving you and the line that he takes I would not like folding this in general, but maybe in Zoom you actually can. I expect people to play check/call or maybe check/shove more likely with hands like QJ/QQ here, but you never know. If you feel villain is more of a recreational player than a regular I would be inclined to look him up.


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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 08:03 AM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
So torn with this spot ... and it's one that comes up quite a bit too, so it's interesting to get to hear that Felix thinks it's a close spot too.

Sometimes the timing tells seem to make a difference ... so if your instinct said one thing in the moment at the tables, I'd be inclined to think your initial thoughts were probably good, and maybe post-game things seem a lot closer than they did in the moment, because of possible timing tells or whatever?


Had a somewhat similar spot that I posted in my 2014 thread - hand versus a casual, with a 9TJx board, small price to call ... although it wasn't a 3-bet pot, and my pair wasn't an overpair (although my raise did come from utg, so the villain should have known my range was pretty strong). And I was sure the villain had me beat, and still called ... guess because of the price? (http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...613#post483613)

It felt too nitty to fold, but then calling when I was beat did not feel optimal - because there's so many people who size their bets to ensure a call, so to keep calling just because the price is decent ... maybe that's a bit of a leak in the other direction?


After reading Birdaay point out that with a small price to call a hand only needs to be good 20% of the time ... put another way, guess that means in close spots where we're unsure of where our hand stands, we can call and be wrong 4x for every one time that we call and are right, is that what it means and still be breakeven, more or less? So if we call and are wrong 3x for every time we're right, then we'll be ahead? So those are pretty forgiving odds

Felt like crap after making my call and seeing the villain had a straight, which is what it felt like the villain had - although I expected it to be on the other end But with his stack being so short, and with so many short stacks being spewy like that under pressure, maybe that was an okay spot to use up one of my 3-4x, you think?

Maybe a couple of things that might make this hand a decent pick to take a chance on too (as one of the 3-4x to call and be wrong, but possibly be right 1/4 of the time?) is that your KK blocks KQ ... and maybe there's some two pair hands the villain was overvaluing too, like 9T, JT that got counterfeited on the river? Although there's a decent chance the villain turns over 99-JJ or 78, like the villain in my hand?


Gosh, hope this makes sense ... kind of early in the morning still - think I'll use that as my excuse

Hope everybody's having a nice day
 
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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 01:57 PM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I call on this river card for this price when we block KQ and villain could be betting QQ JT enough % of the time for it to sway us. I think our price is good enough.
 
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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 02:53 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Was *just* starting to second-guess myself, but ... guess the villain could easily think QQ might be good because it blocks KQ as well, and because 99 to JJ will call behind a lot of the time pre-flop rather than 3-bet? Guess there's more than a couple of hands that the villain might have thought were good that KK was beating ...

Still feels close though!

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 02:55 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 04:14 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Recreational player is going to take this line with AJ too. And yeah, we block KQ (which he may c/r turn with anyway) and draw out on all JT/J9/T9 combos. I call here and am quite happy about it.


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Thu Jan 30, 2014, 07:34 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh awesome - Dave likes a call too!


Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
vs 29/23/AF2.4 53 hands 0% fold to 3bet so far

River: ($18.35) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $8.75, Hero ....

Carlos, sorry to keep posting ... and posting in your thread Sometimes it seems easier to see things in other peoples' hands than it is my own?

Was just noticing that the villain bet less than half the pot on the turn and river - and bet a slightly smaller percentage of the pot on the river than on the turn? Does everybody else sort of find that even the most tight passives, with the AFs of less than 1, that make those mini-bets with monsters, seem like even they'd usually bet a half-pot with a boat on the river after getting a call on the turn? So like ... it's kind of a little thing, but with the villain's AF of 2 rather than less than 1 ... maybe that's another thing that might make it more likely the villain really isn't super strong - the fact that he kept his bet on the river small? Although maybe he's still got KK beat with like 78s or whatever (thinking of my hand again), but still ...


Oh hey, also ... was just going by birdaay's 20% before, but is it more like 32%? That's kind of a big difference - but guess it's still on the small side, and there's all that other stuff too ...


Just some more random observations I guess ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 07:39 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 10:25 AM
(#9)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks everybody,

Seems like an easy call now that I read all your thoughts.Unfortunately I folded, I was beating any two pair and didn't even cross my mind, add that I block KQ and is an easy call. I am so rusty that is embarrassing.
 
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Fri Jan 31, 2014, 01:02 PM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Probably:

in-game timing tells > 24hrs to analyze someone else's hand


Your hand's so similar to that one of mine I posted above - maybe the timing tells is what makes anayzing our own hands a bit harder, because I could swear there was something in-game that made me think the villain's most likely holding was a straight. But to look at the hand again afterwards, I can't come up with any reason why that should be the case.

Maybe your villain had 8h 7h too ... non-nut straight, and flush draw as well, who knows ...


Thanks for posting the hand Carlos
 

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