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NL2$ 6-max 9s9h ending up having bottom set on a unicolor board

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NL2$ 6-max 9s9h ending up having bottom set on a unicolor board - Sun Feb 02, 2014, 06:58 AM
(#1)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 560
villain_1 VP14 PF13 AF 4/2/INF/INF (152)
villain_3 VP67 PF0 AF 3/3/INF/2 (6)

My questions about this hand
1. Is the call on the flop of the all-in correct. I believe that if not better, I still have enough outs to improve. However, I might have made a mistake there as there was still a 3d player to act
2. Is the call on the turn correct. To be honest, in retrospective I doubt it although there is some merrit in my thought process: As villain_1 did raise preflop and he reraised my bet on the flop and then just called the 4-bet, I ranged him on a high pocket JJ+ or maybe AK with one clove. His play was so strong I was inclined towards KK,AA but wasn't that wishful thinking...

pause after the turn action, I did not cut out the results

Last edited by betsizer; Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:00 AM.. Reason: forgot the hand :)
 
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Sun Feb 02, 2014, 10:31 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I'm not sure what your AF stats mean? Is it Total/F/T/R?

This is a really tough spot. Both villains could be drawing, they might already have stronger made hands than you, it's really tough to say. Multiway pots are tough to evaluate, especially when one of the players is much shorter stacked.

Let's just concentrate on V1 for now. If he has QQ or JJ - you're screwed. If he has AA or KK with a club, you are a 62% favourite. If he only has pure value hands (flush or KT), you are a 33% underdog. Give him a combined range of any Ac hand, AA-TT and KT and you are 53% favourite.

However V3's share is significant, it's about 30% of V1's stack. If both players have a range of Ac, AA-TT and KT, you each have an almost identical 33% equity.

All things considered, my inner nit shines through and I would fold here. We are never going to be that far ahead of V3. If we shove, I think V1 is going to call more often than fold and his calling range is mostly going to be favourite against us, we will occasionally be crushed. While we may get him to fold hands like Kc and Tx which have decent equity against us, this isn't going to happen often enough to offset the times that both or one of the villains are going to beat us.

I don't like calling, just get it in on the flop or fold, shoving is obviously the more high variance play.

The turn is tough, which is why I like to shove the flop . This card isn't the worst for you I suppose, V1 doesn't have too much Tx, club draws or sets (including KK which just got there) are much more likely. I suppose once you've called the flop, calling the turn shove is also fine.
 
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Sun Feb 02, 2014, 10:42 AM
(#3)
betsizer's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 560
Sorry for posting unclear stats.
Indeed it is Total / flop / turn /river aggression

I don't shove a lot on the flop (well not that I'm aware off) but should consider that apparently a bit more. I think in this specific case, when I called on the flop I committed to calling on the turn as well and shoving would give a bit more ev as I would fold out some hands with good potential (if I understood correctly)

Thank you
 

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